Market Trust
Decide whether a market price is worth citing.
Convexly turns a prediction-market price into a market-quality scorecard: coherence, liquidity, depth, resolution reliability, participant quality, integrity-risk screens, and an audit trail. Current canary cards expose which inputs are measured, heuristic, pending, or blocked before a rating graduates into stable public methodology.
What this page tells you
Can I cite this price?
Use, use with caveats, discount, or do not cite.
Why that verdict?
Every card separates measured evidence, caveats, and receipts.
Why still preview?
Stable v1 needs more outcome history, coverage, and a frozen validation contract.
The internal canary can be healthy while the public v1 promotion gate remains open. That means the data is usable for review, not yet for stronger performance claims.
Experimental rating caveat
Market Trust Cards are experimental market-quality diagnostics, not compliance certifications or validated credit ratings.
Edge Score cohorts feed participant-quality evidence when a market has enough public scored-wallet flow: not person-level identity, but whether skilled public wallets drove meaningful activity.
Coherence Signals supply the structural-consistency layer: whether related market prices violate probability constraints after costs and caveats.
Track Record decides what Convexly can claim as evidence matures: modeled, resolved, externally verified, stale, pending, or failed.
Cross-venue disparities show reviewed Polymarket/Kalshi price gaps with settlement-rule caveats before any consensus number is treated as useful.
Use
Citable only with the current evidence trail attached.
Use with caveats
Useful, but the caveats should travel with the number.
Discount
A weak input for decisions until missing evidence improves.
Do not cite
Too thin, stale, incoherent, or unresolved to rely on.
Market-quality scorecard
One plain-English status plus a pillar-by-pillar explanation of whether a market is currently usable, caveated, discounted, or not citable.
Visible caveats
v0.2 separates measured inputs from heuristics, so a buyer can see which parts of the rating are mature and which are still evidence collection.
Audit trail
Each card carries source artifacts and a row hash, linking the public card back to the reproducible Convexly research ledger.
Market Trust v1 sample shape
A stable card must answer the buyer's next question.
v0.2 is still a candidate surface. The v1 promotion target is not just a higher score. It is a card a user can cite in a memo because the verdict, evidence, limits, and next action are all visible together.
Verdict
Can I quote this probability?
Use, use with caveats, discount, or do not cite, with the exact methodology version attached.
Evidence
What supports the verdict?
Coherence, depth, participant quality, resolution reliability, integrity-risk screens, and source health.
Limits
What is missing or blocked?
Unknown flow share, stale snapshots, dropped events, data-rights gaps, and heuristic inputs travel with the score.
Next action
What should I do with it?
Cite with caveats, monitor for freshness, request a partner feed, or wait for resolved-outcome evidence.
Current canary
Current candidate cards with visible evidence boundaries.
These cards come from the current Market Trust candidate table. They are useful for internal review and buyer demos, but remain a preview until freshness, coverage, and outcome-history gates stay green over time.
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Decision read: Do not cite. Treat this card as a market-diligence snapshot, not a price forecast.
Score
53
interval 37-58
Evidence
6 measured
1 heuristic · 0 pending
Freshness
current
<1h lag
Current card issue: rating not stable under sensitivity
Open diligence packetEvidence details +
Math guardrails
Quality
53
interval 37-58
Confidence
77
medium
Driver
resolution rule text missing
Sensitivity
fragile under sensitivity
Participant substrate
Pillar
measured
Scored flow
26.5%
12/161 accounts
Unknown flow
73.5%
verdict capped
2 possible wash round-trips detected
Macro caveat
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage
Evidence: 6 measured · 1 heuristic · 0 pending · 0 blocked
audit c60e616ce5c0755fb140ae072f398b2a6fbb77fc3e01d235d10fb6f9d786002c
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 53 · Do not cite
- Coherencemeasuredweight 20.0
7 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 41 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
30+6.0 - Liquiditymeasuredweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
100+15.0 - Depthmeasuredweight 15.0
Workable depth for retail size; institutional size will move price.
75+11.3 - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 15.0
Partial resolution metadata is present; manual rule review remains pending.
55+8.3 - Participant qualitymeasuredweight 20.0
12/161 accounts scored; scored notional share 27%.
0no contrib - Integrity risk screenmeasuredweight 10.0
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
70+7.0 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
100+5.0
v0.2 maturation tracker
The promotion gate is evidence, not a version number.
The canary model should make a market legible to an advisor, journalist, venue operator, or institutional risk team: what supports the rating, what is still weak, and what has to resolve before Convexly can make stronger claims.
Current card issues
These are live card-health issues, not long-term v1 validation requirements.
Before stable v1
These are evidence requirements for public promotion. They can remain open while the internal canary batch is healthy.
Candidate cards
1
latest audit run
Measured inputs
86%
6/7 pillar inputs
Clean source
1/1
no stale snapshot or dropped events
Robust verdicts
0/1
sensitivity-stable cards
Pending
0
inputs still being collected
Blocked rights
0
data unavailable by policy
Pillar measurement
Participant quality
1/1 cards measured
Public wallet flow is joined into Edge Score cohorts when sample floors are met. The remaining work is coverage breadth, not inventing the pillar.
View wallet cohorts
Order book
Liquidity and depth
1/1 cards measured
Canary cards now distinguish shallow snapshots from measurable depth, so weak markets are downgraded instead of hidden behind a single score.
Open canary proof
Integrity
Integrity-risk screen
1/1 cards measured
Flow concentration and pattern screens are treated as evidence flags. They are not proof of intent, and they should travel with every rating.
Read method
Freshness
Source-health gate
1/1 cards clean
A card should not graduate while its source snapshot is stale or event drops are present. Freshness is part of the rating boundary.
Inspect source health
Robustness
Sensitivity check
0/1 verdicts stable
The score must survive leave-one-pillar-out and weight-perturbation checks before the verdict is safe to show as durable.
Review guardrails
Validation
Resolved-outcome ledger
0/1 cards unblocked
This is the claim-upgrade gate. Market Trust stays experimental until resolved cohorts show whether high-trust cards were actually more useful.
Track outcomes
Method
Formula freeze
0/1 cards unblocked
The formula must be frozen before validation so the backtest cannot silently move the target after seeing outcomes.
View preregs
Stable public snapshot
The stable public snapshot remains available while the candidate model earns production history. Search is intentionally simple: market slug, question, category, or condition ID.