Learn
Long-form explainers for the core concepts behind prediction-market trader skill measurement. Each page is the canonical reference for the term and links back to the underlying methodology paper plus the free analyzer.
- What is Edge Score?
A composite skill measure for prediction-market traders, fit on 8,656 Polymarket wallets. Three pillars (calibration, conviction, discipline) with frozen coefficients. Out-of-fold Spearman with profit is +0.514 vs +0.148 for calibration alone.
- What is calibration?
Plain-English explainer: what a Brier score actually measures, why it's a weak PnL predictor on prediction markets despite being the canonical forecasting accuracy metric, and how Convexly's posture pillar uses it.
- What is conviction?(planned)
How concentration is measured, how to read a barbell PnL profile, and why the empirically most-profitable Polymarket wallets concentrate on a small number of high-confidence positions.
- What is discipline?(planned)
Why position count predicts profit inversely on Polymarket (the most profitable wallets hold fewer, larger positions) and why the same pillar flips sign on Manifold per the V1-M cross-venue paper.
- What is Kelly sizing?(planned)
The Kelly criterion, why full-Kelly is unsafe under fat tails (Hill alpha = 1.28 on Polymarket means variance is formally undefined), and how fractional-Kelly diagnostics expose under-sizing or over-sizing on a real wallet.
The /learn series ships on a rolling cadence as part of v4 §8.11. Each page becomes the canonical SEO landing for its term and links to the free wallet analyzer for hands-on practice.