Know which prediction-market prices are strong enough to cite.
Convexly gives analysts, funds, venues, and policy teams an independent review layer for prediction markets: market-quality ratings, wallet-flow caveats, coherence checks, and receipts that show what the data can and cannot support.
Market Trust
Use / caveat / discount labels for markets that need source, liquidity, integrity, and coherence review.
Evidence trail
Every serious claim points to a method version, data source, caveat, or receipt.
Venue-aware data
Built on live Polymarket public data, with venue coverage extended under data-partnership engagements.
Researcher is the self-serve individual tier; Design Partner Pilot and Custom Enterprise are the sales-led versions for institutions that need scoped cohort data, API access, or a methodology partner with reusable evidence.
NDA available. Replies usually within 1-2 business days.
Market
Will this market price be strong enough to use in a memo?
Why
Liquidity and freshness are reviewable, but participant evidence and outcome validation still travel as caveats.
Caveat
Cite the market as directional evidence, not as an authoritative probability.
Checks
Freshness, liquidity, depth, participant quality, resolution risk, integrity flags, and related-market coherence.
Receipt
Method version, source labels, validation state, row hash, and replay path stay attached.
What the institutional tier includes
REST API
Read-only pilot access to approved trust labels, wallet diagnostics, Market Trust evidence, and Coherence Signal metadata. Static API key or OAuth depending on scope, with rate limits and data-rights labels in every packet.
Historical snapshots
Evidence-linked, dated snapshots for approved Polymarket wallet cohorts, Market Trust cards, and coherence ledgers, with each artifact's provenance and source date stated on the record.
Co-branded research
Frozen-coefficient methodology papers under a data-access agreement. Convexly handles methodology and publication, you handle data access. Agreement template available on request.
Named support path
Sales-led pilots include a named research contact, documented support windows, and scoped methodology review. Slack or shared-channel support is available only when it is written into the pilot scope.
Enterprise data room
A diligence artifact index for buyers: API documentation, public JSON samples, evidence receipts, security posture, and subprocessors. Engagement-specific materials are provided on request.
What a diligence packet includes
Enterprise engagements start with a scoped packet, not a vague platform promise. The packet tells a buyer what data was used, which method version scored it, what the rating can support, and the boundaries of that claim.
Data-flow diagram
A plain map from venue inputs through to published outputs for Polymarket public data, so a buyer can see exactly where every figure comes from. Additional venue coverage is available under data-partnership engagements.
Method version registry
The exact Market Trust, participant-quality, and Coherence Check versions used for the packet, plus links to research pages and the preregistration index where applicable.
Hash-chain explanation
A short explanation of how input artifacts connect to output hashes, what the receipts verify, and what they do not verify.
Claim-boundary one-pager
Language the buyer can safely reuse: citation safety, caveats, source freshness, validation status, and current limits.
Research filing details live on the preregistration index; this enterprise page only summarizes the buyer packet.
How an engagement works
Every engagement is scoped, contracted, and evidence-linked. The terms below set the security, access, and claim posture buyers can rely on from the first conversation.
Security and support posture
Diligence materials cover subprocessors and our security posture, with an NDA available on request. Support terms, rate limits, and data-handling commitments are written into the engagement scope.
API access controls
Enterprise API access is provisioned under contract with defined rate limits, export logging, key rotation, and buyer-specific data-rights language.
Claim discipline
Every rating travels with its evidence and its limits. Market Trust is presented descriptively against its forward calibration record, and related-market consistency reads are clearly labeled as estimates.
Scoped first engagement
A focused starting scope: one market or theme, one diligence packet, one feedback loop, and a clear decision on whether the artifact saves analyst time.
Who this is for
Hedge funds and prop shops exploring prediction markets as a diligence vertical. The V1-M paper shows why venue-specific methods matter; pilot scopes can include venue-specific review only where data rights and reproducible inputs support it.
Venues that want a reproducible market-quality or participant-quality review for their own public or permissioned data, with co-branded research only after methodology, data rights, and claim language are agreed.
Research desks at banks, trading firms, or universities that need a citable methodology for studies on forecasting, calibration, or incentive-regime effects on participant behavior. The data bundle is publicly reproducible; the API and historical snapshots are provided under an enterprise engagement.
Regulators and legal teams who need an evidence-linked review of public wallet behavior for specific case work. Request a Wallet Verification report (signed PDF on Convexly Research letterhead, scoped review window, NDA available).
Start with the methodology, not the sales pitch
The V1-M paper is 19 pages and the data bundle is 1.2 MB of aggregated per-user statistics with a standalone reproduction script. Read them first. If the methodology passes your risk committee, the institutional deal is just pipes on top of it.
Ready to talk
Submit the short intake form. Convexly Research replies usually within 1-2 business days with a 30-minute call slot and any NDA you need to open deeper conversations.
Request pilot scoping