Know which prediction-market prices are strong enough to cite.
Convexly gives analysts, funds, venues, and policy teams an independent review layer for prediction markets: market-quality ratings, wallet-flow caveats, coherence checks, and receipts that show what the data can and cannot support.
Market Trust
Use / caveat / discount labels for markets that need source, liquidity, integrity, and coherence review.
Evidence trail
Every serious claim points to a method version, data source, caveat, or receipt.
Venue-aware data
Polymarket public data is live. Kalshi market context is live where signed inputs and rights support it.
Researcher is the self-serve individual tier; Design Partner Pilot and Custom Enterprise are the sales-led versions for institutions that need scoped cohort data, API access, or a methodology partner with reusable evidence.
NDA available. Replies within 24 hours on business days.
Market
Will this market price be strong enough to use in a memo?
Why
Liquidity and freshness are reviewable, but participant evidence and outcome validation still travel as caveats.
Caveat
Cite the market as directional evidence, not as an authoritative probability.
Checks
Freshness, liquidity, depth, participant quality, resolution risk, integrity flags, and related-market coherence.
Receipt
Method version, source labels, validation state, row hash, and replay path stay attached.
What the institutional tier includes
REST API
Read-only pilot access to approved trust labels, wallet diagnostics, Market Trust evidence, and Coherence Signal metadata. Static API key or OAuth depending on scope, with rate limits and data-rights labels in every packet.
Historical snapshots
Evidence-linked snapshots for approved Polymarket wallet cohorts, Market Trust cards, and coherence ledgers. Dated artifact availability is labeled explicitly so buyers can distinguish public receipts from internal archives.
Co-branded research
Frozen-coefficient methodology papers under a data-access agreement. Convexly handles methodology and publication, you handle data access. Agreement template available on request.
Named support path
Sales-led pilots include a named research contact, documented support windows, and scoped methodology review. Slack or shared-channel support is available only when it is written into the pilot scope.
Enterprise data room
Pilot diligence artifact index: API docs, public JSON samples, evidence receipts, security posture, subprocessors, and clear status labels for planned or on-request materials.
What a diligence packet includes
Enterprise pilots start with a scoped packet, not a vague platform promise. The packet tells a buyer what data was used, which method version scored it, what the rating can support, and what still needs validation.
Data-flow diagram
A plain map of venue inputs, collector paths, storage tables, scoring jobs, and public outputs, with Polymarket and Kalshi separated by source rights.
Method version registry
The exact Market Trust, participant-quality, and Coherence Check versions used for the packet, plus links to research pages and the preregistration index where applicable.
Hash-chain explanation
A short explanation of how input artifacts connect to output hashes, what the receipts verify, and what they do not verify.
Claim-boundary one-pager
Language the buyer can safely reuse: citation safety, caveats, source freshness, validation status, and current limits.
Research filing details live on the preregistration index; this enterprise page only summarizes the buyer packet.
Pilot-ready now. Procurement package still maturing.
Convexly is ready for founder-led design-partner review. Formal enterprise procurement needs more operational history and a completed buyer packet around security, data rights, usage controls, and support commitments.
Security and support posture
Current materials cover subprocessors, public security posture, and NDA availability. A signed SLA, incident-response commitment, and procurement questionnaire packet are still pilot-scoped.
API usage controls
Public and pilot endpoints exist, but formal enterprise access still needs contracted rate limits, export logs, key rotation policy, and buyer-specific data-rights language.
Outcome evidence
Market Trust stays canary-preview until resolved-outcome rows and validation evidence mature. Related-market consistency claims remain estimated until matched controls and resolved signals publish.
Design-partner scope
The right next sale is a scoped review: one market or theme, one diligence packet, one feedback loop, and a clear decision on whether the artifact saves analyst time.
Who this is for
Hedge funds and prop shops exploring prediction markets as a diligence vertical. The V1-M paper shows why venue-specific methods matter; pilot scopes can include venue-specific review only where data rights and reproducible inputs support it.
Venues that want a reproducible market-quality or participant-quality review for their own public or permissioned data, with co-branded research only after methodology, data rights, and claim language are agreed.
Research desks at banks, trading firms, or universities that need a citable methodology for studies on forecasting, calibration, or incentive-regime effects on participant behavior. The data bundle is publicly reproducible; the API plus historical snapshots are not.
Regulators and legal teams who need an evidence-linked review of public wallet behavior for specific case work. Request a Wallet Verification report (signed PDF on Convexly Research letterhead, scoped review window, NDA available).
Start with the methodology, not the sales pitch
The V1-M paper is 19 pages and the data bundle is 1.2 MB of aggregated per-user statistics with a standalone reproduction script. Read them first. If the methodology passes your risk committee, the institutional deal is just pipes on top of it.
Ready to talk
Submit the short intake form. A Convexly Research team member replies within 24 business hours with a 30-minute call slot and any NDA you need to open deeper conversations.
Request pilot scoping