The Truth Leaderboard

Across the full 8,656-wallet Polymarket cohort in our V1 methodology paper, the Spearman rank correlation between a wallet's Brier score (calibration) and its realized PnL is +0.148. That is almost no correlation. The top 1 percent of wallets by absolute PnL captured 36.2 percent of all signed profit on the platform, and most of them did not get there by being better calibrated than everyone else.

Convexly's Edge Score V3b is a composite of three pillars fitted against signed log PnL with out-of-fold cross- validation: posture, conviction, and discipline. Its out-of- fold Spearman correlation with signed log PnL is +0.514. A Fama-French 2010 bootstrap with 10,000 permutations places the observed correlation outside every permuted sample at p less than 0.0001. It is a meaningfully better ranking of forward skill than raw PnL.

The divergence you see above is the visible evidence for that. Wallets that appear on the left column but not the right are PnL winners whose track record does not robustly predict that they will keep winning. Wallets that appear on the right column but not the left are skilled operators whose PnL is lower because their turnover or sizing is more disciplined than the PnL-leaderboard leaders.

The V1-M extension paper published 2026-04-22 adds a 15,106-user Manifold cohort and a within-user natural experiment across Manifold's sweepcash real-money window. Real money reduced median within-user concentration by 8.9 percentage points on 1,647 forecasters. The same forecasters, measured on the same platform, sized less concentrated bets when the currency was redeemable.