PnL vs Edge Score
Compare two orderings of the same closed wallet cohort. Neither column below is a validated skill ranking.
Closed set of wallet addresses selected once on 2026-04-19 and never added to, not a screen over Polymarket. Membership was conditioned partly on having made money.
Selection, coverage and frozen-screen methods
This board is a closed set of wallet addresses selected once on 2026-04-19, not a screen over Polymarket. No wallet has entered since. The original screen was: Polymarket wallets with >=5 resolved positions and >=$5k realized PnL (2026-04-15 snapshot). Ranked by Edge Score V3b. Membership was conditioned partly on having made money, which puts profit on the causal path into the pool, so no count taken over these rows describes Polymarket wallets generally.
Where a frozen screen reads "not separable from chance at these sample sizes", that is a statement about statistical power at those sample sizes. It is not a finding that the wallet lacks skill.
The frozen luck-share and skill-scan readings describe the dated cohort published 2026-06-09, read under the method in force before 2026-07-15 and its API read window; the current board's ordering and composition have since changed. The row screens retain their 2026-04-25 snapshot date.
Expand a wallet for its sample and price coverage, composite components, and realized-edge interval against zero where a frozen skill-versus-luck read exists.
Ranked from Polymarket's recent-trade window, not from a complete read of each wallet's resolved record. That window omits positions already redeemed, so these figures describe the window and not the whole record. No skill read is published for a wallet until its record has been read in full.
50-wallet cohort · Generated · Expand a row for details
Top 20 by realized PnL
Realized PnL in the recent-trade window
Recent-window record only. Not a complete read, and not a skill ordering. 14 of 20 rows below have been read in full.
Select a wallet to inspect its sample, coverage and available interval.
- Cohort
- 50
- PnL rows also in the composite list
- 7/20
- Composite rows outside the PnL list
- 13/20
7 of 50 cohort wallets are excluded from both lists because the latest run did not provide usable PnL and Edge Score values. Missing data is not a performance judgment.
What this artifact is saying
Across the full 8,656-wallet Polymarket cohort in our V1 methodology paper, the Spearman rank correlation between a wallet's Brier score (calibration) and its realized PnL is +0.148 (in-sample, descriptive). The top 1 percent of wallets by absolute PnL captured 36.2 percent of all signed profit on the platform. In a market that concentrated, a PnL leaderboard is heavily shaped by a small number of large outcomes.
Convexly's Edge Score is a composite of three behavioral pillars fitted against signed log PnL: posture, conviction, and discipline. The original V3b fit's in-sample out-of-fold Spearman with signed log PnL was +0.514, but that figure shares positions with the PnL it is scored against and its dominant input is PnL-derived, so it overstates predictive skill; the constants were also refit on 2026-07-13, so that fit statistic does not describe the current column (dated method-change note at /methodology). In the composite's one forward test, a per-wallet temporal holdout with the threshold set before the analysis ran, the frozen score held an out-of-sample Spearman of +0.11 (95% CI [0.05, 0.18]) with forward PnL. That did not clear the +0.30 bar. Treat the right-hand column as a descriptive behavioral profile, not a validated skill ranking.
The divergence you see above therefore shows that the two orderings disagree, not which one is right. Wallets in the left column but not the right have a PnL rank ahead of their composite rank; wallets in the right column but not the left have a composite rank ahead of their PnL rank. The honest read of any single record is whether its realized-edge 95% interval clears zero, which neither column displays. A wallet-by-wallet realized-edge scan of the published top-50 cohort is being prepared as a research note; see the top-50 skill scan in the research index.
The V1-M extension paper published 2026-04-22 adds a 15,106-user Manifold cohort and a paired-window sweepcash sensitivity analysis. The original public bundle reported median concentration 8.9 percentage points lower in the sweepcash window on 1,647 paired users, with concentration delta defined on n=333. A 2026-05-04 recovered-cohort rerun excluding political and election markets reports -9.2pp, 95% CI [-12.8, -3.6], Wilcoxon p=0.0021 on n=515 of 1,208 paired users with defined concentration delta. The concentration shift survives the sensitivity check, but causal attribution to sweepcash alone remains limited by the catalog confound.
Check a wallet’s available record
Paste a Polymarket address to inspect its reported P&L, resolved positions and coverage. Your first check is free with no signup. No wallet connection is needed.
Methodology: Edge Score (Convexly Research 2026), a frozen-coefficient behavioral composite; the dated method-change note is at /methodology. The composite is a descriptive behavioral profile, not a validated skill ranking. The cron at 06:00 UTC rescores the existing rows; it does not refresh which wallets are in the cohort. Use this as a comparison view, not a wallet recommendation list.