Independence

What Convexly does not do

• No trade execution. Convexly places no orders and has no trading interface. The only wallet interaction anywhere on the site is a message signature used for ownership claims; a message signature cannot move funds.
• No order routing. No order is created, transmitted, or managed by Convexly. Outbound links open the venue's own site. See the disclosure below this list.
• No trade-mirroring product. Nothing on Convexly mirrors, automates, or executes another wallet's trades. Following a wallet on the watchlist produces notifications, not order placement.
• No proprietary trading on rated markets. Convexly holds no position in any market it rates and does not trade on its own ratings. This is a standing policy as well as the current fact.
• No custody. Convexly never holds customer funds or keys.
• No venue-derived revenue of any kind. No exchange or market venue owns any part of Convexly, pays Convexly for coverage, ratings, or placement, or has any input into a verdict. Outbound links to venues carry no referral or builder attribution, so no Convexly link can earn a per-trade fee. Convexly's revenue is subscriptions and fixed-fee research services billed directly to its own customers.
• No token. There is no Convexly token, and no feature is token-gated.

How verdicts are produced

• Fixed, published decision rules. The wallet skill verdict is a four-state machine (flagged, insufficient, luck, skilled) with fixed thresholds and a fixed gate order, published in the open repository and described in plain language in the top-50 skill scan. The same inputs produce the same verdict regardless of who is asking. Market Trust graduation is governed by a published promotion contract, not by discretion.
• No point estimate without an interval. The realized entry edge is reported with its bootstrap 95% interval against zero in the same line, on the free check and on every published table. A cohort-level count of “skilled” records is reported with its multiple-comparisons correction alongside the uncorrected number.
• Frozen methods with public hashes. The verdict pipelines are pinned to specific methodology hashes; the pins live in the public repository as tests and workflow configuration, and the verdict artifacts they produce are committed publicly. The hash-chained audit log is checkable in the browser at /research/verify.
• Forward tests registered externally before the window opens. Any forward-looking claim must clear a test whose floors and pass/fail bars were filed externally, with a third-party timestamp, before the observation window opened. The verdicts mature on time and outcomes alone. The filing index, with receipts, is at /research/preregistrations.

Negative results

Convexly publishes its own failed tests and keeps them published. A forward test of the Edge Score's per-wallet predictive claim returned an out-of-sample Spearman of +0.11 (95% CI +0.05 to +0.18) against a +0.30 bar set in advance; it failed, and the result is public. The negative-result registry indexes every rejected hypothesis with its effect size and interval; the forward-validation page carries the honest forward result; the methodology page leads with the failures. A null or failed result is a publishable outcome, not a removable one.

Corrections

Errors in published numbers or labels are corrected in place, with the correction stated on the affected page rather than silently edited. The repository is public, so the edit history of every page is inspectable. A worked example: a rolling rank-correlation series initially labeled as forward validation was relabeled as an in-sample diagnostic, and the correction note remains on the methodology page and on the diagnostic page itself. Where a corrected claim was sent to a specific recipient, the policy is to send the correction to the same recipient.

What customers pay for

Customers pay for tests and infrastructure, never for outcomes.

• The wallet check is free and requires no signup.
• Subscriptions price tooling and volume: watchlists, exports, API access. A subscriber sees the same verdict on the same wallet as a non-subscriber; no plan changes a verdict.
• The wallet audit service charges a fixed fee agreed before the review runs. The report states what the record supports, including “not separable from chance” and “insufficient evidence.” Paying for the review does not buy the conclusion.
• No rated wallet, market, or venue can pay to be rated, to improve a rating, or to remove one.
• If Convexly offers certification, the same rule applies as policy: the charge is for running the test, not for the result.

Identity

• Verdicts are computed on public records keyed by wallet address.
• A person or product name attaches to a record on Convexly only through a cryptographic self-claim: a message signature from the wallet, with smart-contract wallet support, re-verified on a 90-day cadence. The signature proves control of the address; it cannot move funds. The flow is documented at /research/wallet-verification-methodology.
• Convexly never first-publishes a handle-to-wallet linkage. Names shown next to addresses are either self-claimed through the signature flow or are the venue's own public profile names for that address, reproduced as the venue publishes them.
• Deanonymization is not a product.

Disclaimer