How can we help?

Convexly is an independent diligence layer for prediction-market data. It helps you decide whether a market price is strong enough to use, whether a wallet deserves study, and what evidence supports each rating. Public checks are free; paid tiers add watchlists, digests, exports, and sales-led institutional pilots.

A spreadsheet can hold numbers, but it does not preserve the evidence trail. Convexly links each rating to source freshness, caveats, method versions, and receipts so a market or wallet check can be reused in a research note, memo, or review process.

A Brier score measures how close your probability estimates are to actual outcomes. Lower is better: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is chance level. On Polymarket the median wallet sits around 0.20; below 0.15 is strong, below 0.10 is elite on the reference cohort.

No. Your first wallet analysis needs no signup at all; analyzing more wallets is free with an account. You can paste any public Polymarket 0x address into the analyzer, inspect public Market Trust snapshots, and save one wallet for a weekly email. No signature, wallet connection, or private key is required.

Your trade history is private. Polymarket wallets are public on-chain by construction, but Convexly never re-publishes them and never links your Convexly account to a wallet without your explicit opt-in. You control whether your Edge Score and calibration stats are visible on a public profile via a single toggle in Settings.

Yes. Free includes the public Polymarket wallet analyzer, one saved-wallet email watch, public Market Trust snapshots, and research receipts. Researcher ($99/mo) adds a 10-wallet watchlist, weekly digest, sizing replay, and time-series wallet diagnostics. Sales-led institutional pilots live on /enterprise.

Go to Settings > Billing > Manage Subscription. You can cancel anytime through the Stripe customer portal in two clicks. You will keep access until the end of your billing period.

Yes. Go to the Export page in the sidebar to download your trade history (decisions, outcomes, Brier scores, assumptions, tags) as CSV or JSON.

Yes. The Design Partner Pilot is a sales-led lane for market-quality evidence packets, data-rights-aware cohort work, and scoped API access. Custom Enterprise adds a bespoke cohort, API access, and a dedicated research liaison once data access is confirmed. See /enterprise for details, or email support@convexly.app.