AsPredicted receipt manifest

V1.5 follow-up experiments E2 + E7

E2 per-wallet temporal holdout: ρ = +0.111 [+0.046, +0.175], well below the +0.30 pre-reg threshold. E7 per-quarter IC stability: median ρ = +0.038, only 3 of 5 quarters positive vs ≥5/6 required. Both failed.

Audit-chain anchor: v1_5_analyses_results_20260427_191717

MarketAlpha V2 in-sample skill-weighted aggregation tests

Initial in-sample test of skill-weighted aggregation as per-market price prior. 24 aggregator variants tested; all rejected. Cohort substitution amendment filed as #287714.

Audit-chain anchor: marketalpha_v2_in_sample_run

MarketAlpha V2 forward-only skill-weighted aggregation tests

Forward-only complement to #287436. Same 24 aggregator variants on a held-out forward window. All variants rejected forward.

Audit-chain anchor: marketalpha_v2_forward_run

MarketAlpha V2 cohort-substitution amendment

Cohort substitution from V1 (8,656 wallets) to V1-M (8,778 wallets) to verify the negative result is not cohort-specific. All 24 aggregator variants rejected on V1-M as well; consistent with the original finding.

Audit-chain anchor: marketalpha_v2_cohort_substitution

V2.8.2 wash-filter TOST equivalence test on V1-M Polymarket cohort (Sirolly-adapted)

Wash-filter robustness check on the V2.8.2 negative result. Brier delta CI [+0.16028, +0.19287] sits inside the pre-registered TOST equivalence range [+0.154, +0.204]. Movement after wash filtering: +0.00243 Brier (1.4% relative). The V2.8.2 finding (skill-weighted aggregation rejected) is robust to wash-trader filtering at composite-z >= 3.0.

Audit-chain anchor: v28_2_wash_filter_tost_passed_2026_04_29

CME V0.2 backtest: 90-day walk-forward on Polymarket constraint-projection signals

90-day walk-forward backtest of the CME V0.2 constraint-projection pipeline pre-registered. Hyperparameters frozen ex-ante (thresholds, sizing, cost model, performance metrics). No hyperparameter tuning based on backtest results allowed by the pre-reg.

Audit-chain anchor: cme_v0_2_0_methodology_frozen_commit_8616a63

V2-Perps Edge Score: skill ranking with CRPS + funding-capture pillars

Pre-registers the form (4 pillars: CRPS-posture, conviction, discipline, funding-capture) + 7 validation gates for the V2-Perps Edge Score composite. Form locked at freeze commit 8c86dd4; coefficients TBD pending Hyperliquid 90-day cohort fit. Composite reduces to V1 / V3b on binary outcomes (Brier-equivalence identity) and extends across crypto perps, equity perps, compute futures, AI benchmark markets, valuation futures, and prediction markets per spec Section 6.

Audit-chain anchor: v2_perps_methodology_frozen_commit_8c86dd4

CME V0.2-Perps: 90d walk-forward on Hyperliquid coherence-violation signals

90-day walk-forward backtest of the V0.2-Perps coherence-violation engine (7 constraints: cash-and-carry, triangle, put-call parity, Carr-Madan butterfly, Litterman-Scheinkman PCA calendar, cross-venue 4-corner, vertical-spread monotonicity). H1 net Sharpe > 1.0; H2 capacity ceiling < 50K USD/day; H3 each constraint contributes positive Sharpe with 95% bootstrap CI excluding zero. Methodology code freezes at commit adb99d6; emit cron at .github/workflows/cme-v0-2-perps-emit.yml.

Audit-chain anchor: cme_v0_2_perps_methodology_frozen_commit_adb99d6

CME realized-vs-control forward-only validation (92-day prospective window)

Strictly-prospective realized-vs-control validation of CME signals. H1: realized PnL of the CME-chosen side at the USD 1,000 capacity tier exceeds the mean of K=20 matched-noise controls, one-sided paired permutation at alpha = 0.025, AND the 95% bootstrap CI lower bound for mean paired difference is > 0. Evidence window = 92 calendar days beginning the first full UTC signal-emission day after the filing timestamp; pre-filing/same-day signals excluded. Reports insufficient_sample if fewer than 30 resolved signal/control pairs by the analysis date; no threshold tuning or window extension without a new pre-registration. CME methodology frozen for the window.

Audit-chain anchor: cme_realized_vs_control_forward_only_filed_294035_2026_05_31

Wallet-skill FDR candidate-set forward-persistence validation (discretionary cohort, 90-day prospective window)

Strictly-prospective forward-persistence holdout for the in-sample FDR-cleared discretionary wallet set (178 of 3,871 wallets clear BH-FDR at q = 0.10 for positive realized edge over entry prices on the frozen 2026-04-25 tape; expected false discoveries among the cleared set at most ~17.8 -- in-sample skill-vs-luck separation, NOT validated forward skill). Frozen objects: realized-edge skill measure mean(won - vwap_prob); the 178-wallet candidate set; the 3,693-wallet control set; the micro-market exclusion rule. H1 (both legs required): (a) candidate-set pooled forward edge exceeds control-set pooled forward edge, one-sided wallet-label permutation at alpha = 0.025; (b) candidate-set pooled forward edge has a 95% BCa lower bound > 0. Evidence window = 90 calendar days of newly-resolved discretionary positions beginning the first full UTC day after the filing timestamp; 2026-04-25 in-sample positions excluded. Floors: >=10 forward positions/wallet, >=40 candidate wallets, >=1,000 candidate forward positions, else insufficient_sample. A pre-registered null (no_persistence) or insufficient_sample is a valid, publishable outcome.

Audit-chain anchor: wallet_skill_fdr_discretionary_forward_persistence_filed_294147_2026_06_01

PUBLIC RECEIPT VERIFIED 2026-07-25: the author-created anonymous AsPredicted PDF is live at https://aspredicted.org/xq76gq.pdf and resolves with the filed title, the 2026/06/01 05:46 PT filing timestamp, the 178-candidate / 3,693-control design, and the frozen content hash 0e12fe1ffd, with no author identity exposed (anonymous per AsPredicted blind-review default; URL is permanent and survives any later deanonymization). External citation of the FILING is therefore receipted; the VERDICT remains founder-gated to the terminal read on/after 2026-08-31. Filed independent of #294035. The underlying in-sample FDR-cleared candidate set is an internal research artifact, not a published paper; no public paper page exists yet, so this entry links the manifest itself.

Wallet-skill FDR candidate-set forward-persistence WINDOW TWO (discretionary cohort)

Window two of the strictly-prospective forward-persistence protocol first filed as #294147. Frozen objects are UNCHANGED and pinned by the same content hashes (discretionary snapshot sha256 0e12fe1ffd9e38d364d85ad6530ea5f9fedd42e536a0b0d2b910164f88e99b88; parent extract sha256 cf95c5f1b9a957477f6b3c98bdf235744eff8f34230083a4c8bffd4657ef2ec6): the realized-edge measure mean(won - vwap_prob), the 178-wallet candidate set, the 3,693-wallet control set, and the micro-market exclusion rule. H1 (both legs required, identical in form to window one): (a) RELATIVE, candidate-set pooled forward edge exceeds control-set pooled forward edge, one-sided wallet-label permutation at alpha = 0.025, 10,000 permutations, seed 20260725; (b) ABSOLUTE, candidate-set pooled forward edge has a 95% BCa wallet-cluster lower bound above 0, 2,000 resamples, seed 20260726. Evidence window = the 90 calendar days 2026-08-31 through 2026-11-28, contiguous with window one and sharing no position. Floors unchanged: >=10 forward positions/wallet, >=40 candidate wallets, >=1,000 candidate forward positions, else insufficient_sample. The question this window adds is DURABILITY: whether an edge that persisted across one window persists across a second, and with what attenuation. Only the SIGN and the joint pass rule are registered, never a magnitude; window one's observed values are explicitly NOT registered as an expected effect size. A pre-registered null (no_persistence) or insufficient_sample is a valid, publishable outcome, and field 8 commits to publishing whichever of the four verdicts the frozen rule returns.

Audit-chain anchor: wallet_skill_fdr_discretionary_forward_persistence_window_two_filed_303724_2026_07_26

PUBLIC RECEIPT VERIFIED 2026-07-26 at filing time: the author-created anonymous AsPredicted PDF is live at https://aspredicted.org/228s3x.pdf and resolves with the filed title, the 2026/07/26 03:40 PT filing timestamp, and AsPredicted #303,724. Every paragraph of all eight filed fields was field-diffed against the on-disk filing source and matched verbatim, including both frozen content hashes, both seeds, the four-valued verdict vocabulary, and the standing-cadence commitment. This is WINDOW TWO of the same protocol as #294147: same frozen 178-candidate / 3,693-control sets, same frozen realized-edge measure, same micro-market exclusion, same floors, same joint verdict rule. Its window is 2026-08-31 to 2026-11-28, defined by window one's CLOSE rather than this filing's timestamp, so the two windows are contiguous and share no position. Filed BEFORE window one's terminal read exists; field 8 carries an explicit non-blindness disclosure stating that the interim maturation label was visible at filing and that the residual is the decision to CONTINUE the protocol. External citation of the FILING is receipted; the VERDICT stays founder-gated to the terminal read on/after 2026-11-29.