Track Record
This page shows what is live, what has evidence, what failed, and what is still waiting on settlement. It shows the evidence behind every claim, so you can check our work before you rely on it.
Evidence rule
A diagnostic can be useful before it is validated, but it must say what is measured, what is estimated, what is pending, and what would change the verdict.
Open audit-chain verifierTrack-record caveat
Related-market consistency checks stay experimental until markets resolve. Positive realized-net rate, realized PnL, and matched controls govern any performance claim.
Use now
Wallet ratings, public analyzer, evidence registry, and visible product caveats.
Use with caveats
Early Market Trust scorecards and related-market checks, while their outcomes are still being collected.
Not yet proven
We do not claim Convexly beats the market or is ready for enterprise use. Those claims wait until resolved outcomes and outside review back them.
Next proof
Resolved signal outcomes, matched controls, participant-quality joins, and stable freshness gates.
Market Trust gate
Useful for monitoring today; we hold the validated version until enough markets have resolved.
Where the evidence stands today
Wallet ratings are live and refreshed from resolved-position data. Market Trust and signal-outcome validation are still collecting resolved evidence: 848 time-windowed validation observations and 152 resolved or human-reviewed outcomes so far.
A diagnostic can be useful before it is validated, but it must say what is measured, what is estimated, what is pending, and what would change the verdict.
Wallet rating cohort
40
Top 50; 20+ resolved positions
Markets screened
4,889
798 coherence constraints
Signals today
124
$0 candidate value tracked
Market Trust cards
1
5 measured inputs; 0 pending
Validation observations
848
Time-windowed freshness, stability, and coherence checks
Resolved outcomes
152
152 resolved; 0 human-reviewed
The platform gets stronger when every artifact links to the next one: wallet behavior explains participant quality; market scorecards explain whether odds are strong enough to cite; related-market checks test consistency; the track record decides which claims are allowed to get stronger.
Snapshot 2026-08-03
Public wallet scores are live and refreshed from resolved-position data. They remain cross-sectional diagnostics, not per-wallet profit forecasts.
Snapshot 2026-08-03
The live signal feed is useful as a related-market consistency ledger. Realized performance and matched controls still govern any future performance claim.
V0.2 forward pre-registration evidence gate
Evidence gate cleared (460 resolved · 97d since first emission). Realized-vs-control test eligible.
Resolved
460 / 30
Days since first emit
97 / 90
Snapshot 2026-08-05
A market-level scorecard that separates what we have measured from what is still estimated or pending, so you can see exactly how strong a price is.
Market Trust outcome ledger
848 time-windowed validation observations are available for calibration monitoring. 152 resolved or human-reviewed outcomes are available for claim promotion. The v1 claim gate is open.
stability
43 pass / 0 warn / 257 fail
coherence
0 pass / 0 warn / 76 fail
freshness
274 pass / 0 warn / 0 fail
Outcome-ledger rows support internal calibration monitoring. Do not claim Market Trust v1, predictive correctness, or procurement-grade rating language until resolution or human-review rows mature and the calibration design is published.
Claim wording is governed by evidence status
Every receipt shows its status, so you can tell verified evidence from what is still stale, pending, or unverified at a glance.
These are not weaknesses to hide. They are the next gates that prevent Convexly from overstating the product before the data earns it.
Resolved net PnL, hit rate, drawdown, and matched controls must mature before stronger performance language is allowed.
Time-windowed rows can monitor freshness, stability, and coherence now; resolved or human-reviewed rows are still required before public v1 claims.
We are connecting wallet activity to each market so the score can show whether skilled wallets actually drove the price.
Cards should graduate from visible-depth bands to size-specific slippage curves and capacity decay.
We are moving more of our methodology into publicly reproducible artifacts with external timestamps and independent review.
What's next
We are adding participant-quality data, daily score changes, resolved-outcome tracking, and richer exports before expanding into new areas.