Track Record
Convexly should be judged by the same rule it applies to prediction markets: useful claims need receipts, caveats, and outcomes. This page connects the live wallet-rating file, the daily Coherence Signals snapshot, Market Trust scorecards, and the claim registry into one public operating layer.
Evidence rule
A diagnostic can be useful before it is validated, but it must say what is measured, what is modeled, what is pending, and what would change the verdict.
Open audit-chain verifierTrack-record caveat
Coherence Signals are structural-mispricing candidates with modeled net EV until markets resolve. Realized performance, hit rate, and controls govern the final claim.
Wallet leaderboard
50
Top 50; 20+ resolved positions
Markets screened
5,000
623 coherence constraints
Signals today
96
$79k modeled net EV
Market Trust cards
5
15 measured inputs; 5 pending
The platform gets stronger when every artifact links to the next one: wallet behavior explains participant quality; market scorecards explain whether odds are citeable; signals test structural coherence; the track record decides which claims are allowed to get stronger.
Snapshot 2026-05-05
Public wallet scores are live and refreshed from resolved-position data. They remain cross-sectional diagnostics, not per-wallet profit forecasts.
Snapshot 2026-05-06
The live signal feed is useful as a structural-mispricing candidate ledger. Realized performance and matched controls still govern any future alpha claim.
Snapshot 2026-05-06
Market Trust is becoming the center of the diligence product: a market-level card that separates measured evidence from heuristic and pending inputs.
Claim wording is governed by evidence status
The credibility layer is only valuable if broken, stale, pending, internal-only, and externally verified evidence are visibly different to the buyer.
These are not weaknesses to hide. They are the next gates that prevent Convexly from overstating the product before the data earns it.
Resolved net PnL, hit rate, drawdown, and matched controls must mature before stronger performance language is allowed.
Market Trust v0.2 needs per-market wallet-flow joins so the score can say whether high-Edge wallets actually drove activity.
Cards should graduate from visible-depth bands to size-specific slippage curves and capacity decay.
More methodology claims should move from internal artifacts to public reproducible artifacts, external timestamps, and independent review.
Next implementation spine
Ship participant-quality joins, daily scorecard deltas, signal lifecycle states, matched controls, and API/export references before adding new speculative surfaces.