Track Record

One evidence hub for wallets, markets, signals, and claims.

Convexly should be judged by the same rule it applies to prediction markets: useful claims need receipts, caveats, and outcomes. This page connects the live wallet-rating file, the daily Coherence Signals snapshot, Market Trust scorecards, and the claim registry into one public operating layer.

LiveTrack record immatureClaim registry

Evidence rule

A diagnostic can be useful before it is validated, but it must say what is measured, what is modeled, what is pending, and what would change the verdict.

Open audit-chain verifier

Track-record caveat

Coherence Signals are structural-mispricing candidates with modeled net EV until markets resolve. Realized performance, hit rate, and controls govern the final claim.

Wallet leaderboard

50

Top 50; 20+ resolved positions

Markets screened

5,000

623 coherence constraints

Signals today

96

$79k modeled net EV

Market Trust cards

5

15 measured inputs; 5 pending

The product loop

The platform gets stronger when every artifact links to the next one: wallet behavior explains participant quality; market scorecards explain whether odds are citeable; signals test structural coherence; the track record decides which claims are allowed to get stronger.

Wallet Ratings

Snapshot 2026-05-05

Live

Public wallet scores are live and refreshed from resolved-position data. They remain cross-sectional diagnostics, not per-wallet profit forecasts.

  • Public leaderboard size: 50 wallets
  • Median resolved positions shown: 36
  • Median displayed Edge Score: 96.3

Coherence Signals

Snapshot 2026-05-06

Track record immature

The live signal feed is useful as a structural-mispricing candidate ledger. Realized performance and matched controls still govern any future alpha claim.

  • Pipeline: cme_v0_1
  • Modeled net EV today: $79k
  • Audit row hash: 3c4c5cb7...767216

Market Trust

Snapshot 2026-05-06

Experimental

Market Trust is becoming the center of the diligence product: a market-level card that separates measured evidence from heuristic and pending inputs.

  • Average public score: 39.4
  • Evidence coverage: 15 measured / 15 heuristic / 5 pending
  • Cards with row hash: 5 of 5

Receipts and Claims

Claim wording is governed by evidence status

Live

The credibility layer is only valuable if broken, stale, pending, internal-only, and externally verified evidence are visibly different to the buyer.

  • Public claim registry separates claim status from evidence status.
  • AsPredicted and internal receipts are surfaced with verification state.
  • Unsafe wording is blocked by public-copy linting before deploy.

What still has to mature

These are not weaknesses to hide. They are the next gates that prevent Convexly from overstating the product before the data earns it.

Signal outcomes

Resolved net PnL, hit rate, drawdown, and matched controls must mature before stronger performance language is allowed.

Participant quality

Market Trust v0.2 needs per-market wallet-flow joins so the score can say whether high-Edge wallets actually drove activity.

Depth and slippage

Cards should graduate from visible-depth bands to size-specific slippage curves and capacity decay.

External receipts

More methodology claims should move from internal artifacts to public reproducible artifacts, external timestamps, and independent review.

Next implementation spine

Track Record + Market Trust v0.2 is the next platform bet.

Ship participant-quality joins, daily scorecard deltas, signal lifecycle states, matched controls, and API/export references before adding new speculative surfaces.

discount: 1do not cite: 4