Track Record
This page shows what is live, what has evidence, what failed, and what is still waiting on settlement. It is the page that decides what Convexly is allowed to claim.
Evidence rule
A diagnostic can be useful before it is validated, but it must say what is measured, what is estimated, what is pending, and what would change the verdict.
Open audit-chain verifierTrack-record caveat
Related-market consistency checks stay experimental until markets resolve. Positive realized-net rate, realized PnL, and matched controls govern any performance claim.
Use now
Wallet ratings, public analyzer, evidence registry, and visible product caveats.
Use with caveats
Market Trust v0.2 candidate cards and related-market checks while outcome windows mature.
Do not overclaim
No alpha, superiority, or enterprise-SLA language until resolved evidence and external review support it.
Next proof
Resolved signal outcomes, matched controls, participant-quality joins, and stable freshness gates.
Market Trust gate
Outcome rows can support monitoring now; public v1 waits for resolved or reviewed cohorts.
Wallet rating cohort
39
Top 50; 20+ resolved positions
Markets screened
2,100
268 coherence constraints
Signals today
35
$34k candidate value tracked
Market Trust cards
1
4 measured inputs; 1 pending
Validation observations
1,000
Time-windowed freshness, stability, and coherence checks
Resolved outcomes
0
0 resolved; 0 human-reviewed
The platform gets stronger when every artifact links to the next one: wallet behavior explains participant quality; market scorecards explain whether odds are strong enough to cite; related-market checks test consistency; the track record decides which claims are allowed to get stronger.
Snapshot 2026-06-20
Public wallet scores are live and refreshed from resolved-position data. They remain cross-sectional diagnostics, not per-wallet profit forecasts.
Snapshot 2026-06-20
The live signal feed is useful as a related-market consistency ledger. Realized performance and matched controls still govern any future performance claim.
V0.2 forward pre-registration evidence gate
Evidence gate cleared (169 resolved · 52d since first emission). Realized-vs-control test eligible.
Resolved
169 / 30
Days since first emit
52 / 90
Snapshot 2026-06-21
Market Trust v0.2 is becoming the center of the diligence product: a market-level card that separates measured evidence from heuristic and pending inputs.
Market Trust outcome ledger
1,000 time-windowed validation observations are available for calibration monitoring. 0 resolved or human-reviewed outcomes are available for claim promotion. Stable v1 remains blocked.
stability
39 pass / 0 warn / 305 fail
coherence
0 pass / 0 warn / 165 fail
freshness
328 pass / 0 warn / 0 fail
Outcome-ledger rows support internal calibration monitoring. Do not claim Market Trust v1, predictive correctness, or procurement-grade rating language until resolution or human-review rows mature and the calibration design is published.
Claim wording is governed by evidence status
The credibility layer is only valuable if broken, stale, pending, internal-only, and externally verified evidence are visibly different to the buyer.
These are not weaknesses to hide. They are the next gates that prevent Convexly from overstating the product before the data earns it.
Resolved net PnL, hit rate, drawdown, and matched controls must mature before stronger performance language is allowed.
Time-windowed rows can monitor freshness, stability, and coherence now; resolved or human-reviewed rows are still required before public v1 claims.
Market Trust v0.2 needs per-market wallet-flow joins so the score can say whether high-Edge wallets actually drove activity.
Cards should graduate from visible-depth bands to size-specific slippage curves and capacity decay.
More methodology claims should move from internal artifacts to public reproducible artifacts, external timestamps, and independent review.
Next implementation spine
Ship participant-quality joins, daily scorecard deltas, signal lifecycle states, matched controls, and API/export references before adding new speculative surfaces.