Track Record
This page shows what is live, what has evidence, what failed, and what is still waiting on settlement. It shows the evidence behind every claim, so you can check our work before you rely on it.
Evidence rule
A diagnostic can be useful before it is validated, but it must say what is measured, what is estimated, what is pending, and what would change the verdict.
Open audit-chain verifierTrack-record caveat
Related-market consistency checks stay experimental until markets resolve. Positive realized-net rate, realized PnL, and matched controls govern any performance claim.
Use now
Wallet ratings, public analyzer, evidence registry, and visible product caveats.
Not yet proven
We do not claim Convexly beats the market or is ready for enterprise use. Those claims wait until resolved outcomes and outside review back them.
Next proof
Resolved signal outcomes, matched controls, participant-flow joins, and stable freshness gates.
Where the evidence stands today
Wallet ratings are live and rescored from resolved-position data. Signal-outcome validation is still collecting resolved evidence. The Market Trust rating was frozen on 2026-09-05: its forward test, filed in advance as AsPredicted #295174, returned the registered wording "Market Trust tiers do not separate on resolution cleanliness", and a null was one of the outcomes that filing registered, not a failure.
A diagnostic can be useful before it is validated, but it must say what is measured, what is estimated, what is pending, and what would change the verdict.
Wallet rating cohort
42
Closed set of 50 addresses; published above 20 scored positions
Markets screened
1,477
313 coherence constraints
Signals today
1
$0 candidate value tracked
The platform gets stronger when every artifact links to the next one: wallet behavior labels participant flow; market scorecards explain whether odds are strong enough to cite; related-market checks test consistency; the track record decides which claims are allowed to get stronger.
Snapshot 2026-09-20
Public wallet scores are live and rescored from resolved-position data. They remain cross-sectional diagnostics, not per-wallet profit forecasts.
Snapshot 2026-09-20
The live signal feed is useful as a related-market consistency ledger. Realized performance and matched controls still govern any future performance claim.
V0.2 internal evidence gate
Internal evidence gate cleared (844 resolved · 144d since first emission). The filed realized-vs-control test (AsPredicted #294035) matures separately, on resolved matched pairs.
Resolved
844 / 30
Days since first emit
144 / 90
Claim wording is governed by evidence status
Every receipt shows its status, so you can tell verified evidence from what is still stale, pending, or unverified at a glance.
These are not weaknesses to hide. They are the next gates that prevent Convexly from overstating the product before the data earns it.
Resolved net PnL, hit rate, drawdown, and matched controls must mature before stronger performance language is allowed.
We are connecting wallet activity to each market so cards can label whose flow was present. This stays a label, never a quality score.
Cards should graduate from visible-depth bands to size-specific slippage curves and capacity decay.
We are moving more of our methodology into publicly reproducible artifacts with external timestamps and independent review.
What's next
The signal lane, the matched controls and the wallet forward tests each run to a window fixed in advance and publish whatever they return. The Market Trust rating was frozen on 2026-09-05 after its own window closed.