Research / Macro Coverage + Coherence v0.2
Macro prediction markets need source discipline before they need more tickers.
Frozen 2026-09-05
The pre-registered forward test of Market Trust (AsPredicted #295174) returned the registered wording "Market Trust tiers do not separate on resolution cleanliness." A null is a valid pre-registered outcome, not a failure. Market Trust is frozen; this page is kept as dated history and does not describe a current product. The calibration verdict artifact is docs/ops/evidence/market-trust-v1-calibration-verdict/2026-07-30-terminal-analysis-point.json.
The registered label must not be read alone. The higher-trust arm held four markets, so no attainable outcome for that arm could clear the filed threshold, and the contrast is therefore not established. That is not the same as the arms being alike: no equivalence margin was filed, so the frozen result settles the question in neither direction.
v0.2 turns the macro thesis into a materialized substrate: reviewed macro keys, official benchmark sources, venue mapping debt, daily CME bundle readiness, and macro caveats attached to Market Trust cards.
Retention status (registry, added 2026-08-13): the live counts on this page are computed per request from rolling tables and no dated snapshot is written, so past readings are unrecoverable. What survives in git is the seed registry and the methodology; the coverage figures a reader saw on any past day do not.
Frozen rating caveat
The Market Trust rating surfaces were frozen on 2026-09-05. Cards recorded before then are experimental market-quality diagnostics, not compliance certifications and not credit ratings.
Method freeze
v0.2 tests whether Convexly can keep macro market prices inspectable across source, venue, freshness, participant, and coherence dimensions. It does not claim complete coverage, venue-approved mappings, tradable expected value, or macro forecasting skill.
Included
Taxonomy, source registry, mapping queue, bundle-readiness rows, card caveats.
Excluded
Complete venue coverage, account-level cross-venue flow, macro alpha, or settlement guarantees.
Daily output
macro_cme_bundle_runs and macro_market_trust_annotations from the cron materializer.
Gate
A macro card is partial until exact condition-level co-listing and rule text are reviewed.
Registry coverage
The registry is intentionally category-first. Public coverage here is Polymarket; exact condition IDs only become reviewed links after settlement source and date alignment.
422 active venue link rows
Candidate links are discovery debt, not consensus coverage. Reviewed exact links have condition-level settlement-rule review; rejected links remain counted so false positives cannot be rediscovered and silently promoted later.
Reviewed exact links
polymarket · reviewed
will-annual-inflation-increase-by-3pt1-in-april
macro:us:inflation:cpi
polymarket · reviewed
will-the-may-2026-unemployment-rate-be-4pt3
macro:us:labor:unemployment
polymarket · reviewed
will-6-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026
macro:us:rates:fomc
inflation
Inflation
Contracts tied to U.S. CPI, core CPI, PCE-style inflation prints, or month-over-month / year-over-year inflation thresholds.
macro:us:inflation:cpi
labor
Labor
Contracts tied to unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims, wage growth, or labor-market slack.
macro:us:labor:unemployment
rates_fed
Rates and Fed
Contracts tied to FOMC meetings, cuts, hikes, holds, target ranges, rate-path thresholds, and Treasury-rate context.
macro:us:rates:fomc
growth
Growth
Contracts tied to GDP prints, recession calls, soft-landing narratives, PMI/ISM, retail sales, or growth stress.
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession
volatility
Volatility
Contracts tied to VIX, market drawdowns, MOVE-style volatility, or equity-index stress thresholds.
macro:us:volatility:vix_drawdown
policy_fiscal
Policy and fiscal
Contracts tied to tariffs, shutdowns, debt ceiling, tax policy, budget, fiscal stress, or regulatory shocks.
macro:us:policy:fiscal_shock
crypto_macro
Crypto macro
Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETF, stablecoin, or crypto-liquidity contracts when they function as broad risk/liquidity markets.
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
Daily Macro CME output
These rows are not trading signals. They show whether the input bundle is coherent enough to inspect: category coverage, venues, blocked inputs, and caveats.
inflation to fed path
2026-10-08 01:59 UTC · 11 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
11 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is heuristic; missing categories: Inflation
row hash a4910f0a7fc5bb28cfb9b739727a2af1f92bc72efefab8b74720397ec9fcc274
labor to fed path
2026-10-08 01:59 UTC · 11 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
11 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is heuristic; missing categories: Labor, Growth
row hash fd66c15a547f0023fbbd624a7f63f532abefb96f3a5c74ac5ed6b5e02d5e3800
growth stress bundle
2026-10-08 01:59 UTC · 11 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
11 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is pending; missing categories: Growth, Volatility
row hash 25b3151d09054fcf742c4c2ceb1a226423ade9919cf4c7082dbb3647a396f3aa
policy fiscal to macro path
2026-10-08 01:59 UTC · 11 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
11 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is pending; missing categories: Policy and fiscal, Growth, Inflation
row hash 023e80198153a12833bf3771c1aa39753fee3ab8c36be39116a09a072edeaaa7
crypto macro liquidity
2026-10-08 01:59 UTC · 41 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
41 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is heuristic; missing categories: Volatility
row hash 2aaac3cb76f7495c79974dddef0d3cd295b7ab0916292d957777eb2971cb5e84
Market Trust macro caveats
Macro annotations are joined onto the Market Trust surface when a canary card has a matching venue and condition ID.
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability