Research / Macro Coverage + Coherence v0.2
Macro prediction markets need source discipline before they need more tickers.
v0.2 turns the macro thesis into a materialized substrate: reviewed macro keys, official benchmark sources, venue mapping debt, daily CME bundle readiness, and macro caveats attached to Market Trust cards.
Experimental rating caveat
Market Trust Cards are experimental market-quality diagnostics, not compliance certifications or validated credit ratings.
Method freeze
v0.2 tests whether Convexly can keep macro market prices inspectable across source, venue, freshness, participant, and coherence dimensions. It does not claim complete coverage, venue-approved mappings, tradable expected value, or macro forecasting skill.
Included
Taxonomy, source registry, mapping queue, bundle-readiness rows, card caveats.
Excluded
Complete venue coverage, account-level cross-venue flow, macro alpha, or settlement guarantees.
Daily output
macro_cme_bundle_runs and macro_market_trust_annotations from the cron materializer.
Gate
A macro card is partial until exact condition-level co-listing and rule text are reviewed.
Registry coverage
The registry is intentionally category-first. Public coverage here is Polymarket; exact condition IDs only become reviewed links after settlement source and date alignment.
215 active venue link rows
Candidate links are discovery debt, not consensus coverage. Reviewed exact links have condition-level settlement-rule review; rejected links remain counted so false positives cannot be rediscovered and silently promoted later.
inflation
Inflation
Contracts tied to U.S. CPI, core CPI, PCE-style inflation prints, or month-over-month / year-over-year inflation thresholds.
macro:us:inflation:cpi
labor
Labor
Contracts tied to unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims, wage growth, or labor-market slack.
macro:us:labor:unemployment
rates_fed
Rates and Fed
Contracts tied to FOMC meetings, cuts, hikes, holds, target ranges, rate-path thresholds, and Treasury-rate context.
macro:us:rates:fomc
growth
Growth
Contracts tied to GDP prints, recession calls, soft-landing narratives, PMI/ISM, retail sales, or growth stress.
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession
volatility
Volatility
Contracts tied to VIX, market drawdowns, MOVE-style volatility, or equity-index stress thresholds.
macro:us:volatility:vix_drawdown
policy_fiscal
Policy and fiscal
Contracts tied to tariffs, shutdowns, debt ceiling, tax policy, budget, fiscal stress, or regulatory shocks.
macro:us:policy:fiscal_shock
crypto_macro
Crypto macro
Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETF, stablecoin, or crypto-liquidity contracts when they function as broad risk/liquidity markets.
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
Daily Macro CME output
These rows are not trading signals. They show whether the input bundle is coherent enough to inspect: category coverage, venues, blocked inputs, and caveats.
inflation to fed path
2026-06-29 06:04 UTC · 39 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:inflation:cpi, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
27 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is heuristic
row hash f554b7f43df4f66350f28045b0dbd57d12f516e5a517cd7a968d43c3a072939e
labor to fed path
2026-06-29 06:04 UTC · 28 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
28 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is heuristic; missing categories: Labor; no exact condition-level cross-venue link in bundle
row hash f3d251c787286038adf867c3f4884ba1ddf2c76aa3b9a21b7ef84dbd473e1aab
growth stress bundle
2026-06-29 06:04 UTC · 28 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
28 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is pending; missing categories: Volatility; no exact condition-level cross-venue link in bundle
row hash e9fa9e747608f657b5c1415ea61d6960ae2950e6e29d92402a9075e0fab233d4
policy fiscal to macro path
2026-06-29 06:04 UTC · 44 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession, macro:us:inflation:cpi, macro:us:policy:fiscal_shock, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
32 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is pending
row hash ce2f83a70aa521f7ac460c06b3ffb475d3347bb10c1e2ab50102b662c4b18561
crypto macro liquidity
2026-06-29 06:04 UTC · 92 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
92 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is heuristic; missing categories: Volatility
row hash 15e4a723c3330e842b8ca01b3e6f8ace7c24bcfeb97b672d809894d9a101b6da
Market Trust macro caveats
Macro annotations are joined onto the Market Trust surface when a canary card has a matching venue and condition ID.
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level link is candidate; settlement-rule review still pending; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level link is candidate; settlement-rule review still pending; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level link is candidate; settlement-rule review still pending; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level link is candidate; settlement-rule review still pending; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level link is candidate; settlement-rule review still pending; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability