Research / Macro Coverage + Coherence v0.2
Macro prediction markets need source discipline before they need more tickers.
v0.2 turns the macro thesis into a materialized substrate: reviewed macro keys, official benchmark sources, venue mapping debt, daily CME bundle readiness, and macro caveats attached to Market Trust cards.
Retention status (registry, added 2026-08-13): the live counts on this page are computed per request from rolling tables and no dated snapshot is written, so past readings are unrecoverable. What survives in git is the seed registry and the methodology; the coverage figures a reader saw on any past day do not.
Experimental rating caveat
Market Trust Cards are experimental market-quality diagnostics, not compliance certifications or validated credit ratings.
Method freeze
v0.2 tests whether Convexly can keep macro market prices inspectable across source, venue, freshness, participant, and coherence dimensions. It does not claim complete coverage, venue-approved mappings, tradable expected value, or macro forecasting skill.
Included
Taxonomy, source registry, mapping queue, bundle-readiness rows, card caveats.
Excluded
Complete venue coverage, account-level cross-venue flow, macro alpha, or settlement guarantees.
Daily output
macro_cme_bundle_runs and macro_market_trust_annotations from the cron materializer.
Gate
A macro card is partial until exact condition-level co-listing and rule text are reviewed.
Registry coverage
The registry is intentionally category-first. Public coverage here is Polymarket; exact condition IDs only become reviewed links after settlement source and date alignment.
321 active venue link rows
Candidate links are discovery debt, not consensus coverage. Reviewed exact links have condition-level settlement-rule review; rejected links remain counted so false positives cannot be rediscovered and silently promoted later.
Reviewed exact links
polymarket · reviewed
will-annual-inflation-increase-by-3pt1-in-april
macro:us:inflation:cpi
polymarket · reviewed
will-the-may-2026-unemployment-rate-be-4pt3
macro:us:labor:unemployment
polymarket · reviewed
will-6-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026
macro:us:rates:fomc
inflation
Inflation
Contracts tied to U.S. CPI, core CPI, PCE-style inflation prints, or month-over-month / year-over-year inflation thresholds.
macro:us:inflation:cpi
labor
Labor
Contracts tied to unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims, wage growth, or labor-market slack.
macro:us:labor:unemployment
rates_fed
Rates and Fed
Contracts tied to FOMC meetings, cuts, hikes, holds, target ranges, rate-path thresholds, and Treasury-rate context.
macro:us:rates:fomc
growth
Growth
Contracts tied to GDP prints, recession calls, soft-landing narratives, PMI/ISM, retail sales, or growth stress.
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession
volatility
Volatility
Contracts tied to VIX, market drawdowns, MOVE-style volatility, or equity-index stress thresholds.
macro:us:volatility:vix_drawdown
policy_fiscal
Policy and fiscal
Contracts tied to tariffs, shutdowns, debt ceiling, tax policy, budget, fiscal stress, or regulatory shocks.
macro:us:policy:fiscal_shock
crypto_macro
Crypto macro
Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETF, stablecoin, or crypto-liquidity contracts when they function as broad risk/liquidity markets.
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
Daily Macro CME output
These rows are not trading signals. They show whether the input bundle is coherent enough to inspect: category coverage, venues, blocked inputs, and caveats.
inflation to fed path
2026-08-23 22:48 UTC · 45 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:inflation:cpi, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
30 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is heuristic
row hash d487c55b8053a50dba48801872c869272a7d4b9e8f0765c0b5912427dfe5f58c
labor to fed path
2026-08-23 22:48 UTC · 35 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
32 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is heuristic; missing categories: Labor
row hash adbc10ed57d3ef6bf509b7117903ccdfc011f6408785b913325d16aeaa1ccf98
growth stress bundle
2026-08-23 22:48 UTC · 35 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
32 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is pending; missing categories: Volatility
row hash 93de989819646a6e6d67d8da580af471f65cc607359a7b75b6434b3c2a7c21cc
policy fiscal to macro path
2026-08-23 22:48 UTC · 52 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession, macro:us:inflation:cpi, macro:us:policy:fiscal_shock, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
37 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is pending
row hash df05ff776509e20f1faaa66fc2e04cff9bb449b7aa454021d0e15646585271f5
crypto macro liquidity
2026-08-23 22:48 UTC · 82 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
79 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is heuristic; missing categories: Volatility
row hash e28a02352387ea3b6599427b7cfd7292dca7fad839c5cf4c41b00b9c800cc2c1
Market Trust macro caveats
Macro annotations are joined onto the Market Trust surface when a canary card has a matching venue and condition ID.
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level link is candidate; settlement-rule review still pending; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability