Research / Macro Coverage + Coherence v0.2
Macro prediction markets need source discipline before they need more tickers.
v0.2 turns the macro thesis into a materialized substrate: reviewed macro keys, official benchmark sources, venue mapping debt, daily CME bundle readiness, and macro caveats attached to Market Trust cards.
Experimental rating caveat
Market Trust Cards are experimental market-quality diagnostics, not compliance certifications or validated credit ratings.
Method freeze
v0.2 tests whether Convexly can keep macro market prices inspectable across source, venue, freshness, participant, and coherence dimensions. It does not claim complete coverage, venue-approved mappings, tradable expected value, or macro forecasting skill.
Included
Taxonomy, source registry, mapping queue, bundle-readiness rows, card caveats.
Excluded
Complete venue coverage, account-level Kalshi flow, macro alpha, or settlement guarantees.
Daily output
macro_cme_bundle_runs and macro_market_trust_annotations from the cron materializer.
Gate
A macro card is partial until exact condition-level co-listing and rule text are reviewed.
Registry coverage
The registry is intentionally category-first. Exact Polymarket or Kalshi condition IDs only become reviewed links after settlement source and date alignment.
992 active venue link rows
Candidate links are discovery debt, not consensus coverage. Reviewed exact links have condition-level settlement-rule review; rejected links remain counted so false positives cannot be rediscovered and silently promoted later.
Reviewed exact links
polymarket · reviewed
will-annual-inflation-increase-by-3pt1-in-april
macro:us:inflation:cpi
polymarket · reviewed
will-the-may-2026-unemployment-rate-be-4pt3
macro:us:labor:unemployment
polymarket · reviewed
will-6-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026
macro:us:rates:fomc
inflation
Inflation
Contracts tied to U.S. CPI, core CPI, PCE-style inflation prints, or month-over-month / year-over-year inflation thresholds.
macro:us:inflation:cpi
labor
Labor
Contracts tied to unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims, wage growth, or labor-market slack.
macro:us:labor:unemployment
rates_fed
Rates and Fed
Contracts tied to FOMC meetings, cuts, hikes, holds, target ranges, rate-path thresholds, and Treasury-rate context.
macro:us:rates:fomc
growth
Growth
Contracts tied to GDP prints, recession calls, soft-landing narratives, PMI/ISM, retail sales, or growth stress.
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession
volatility
Volatility
Contracts tied to VIX, market drawdowns, MOVE-style volatility, or equity-index stress thresholds.
macro:us:volatility:vix_drawdown
policy_fiscal
Policy and fiscal
Contracts tied to tariffs, shutdowns, debt ceiling, tax policy, budget, fiscal stress, or regulatory shocks.
macro:us:policy:fiscal_shock
crypto_macro
Crypto macro
Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETF, stablecoin, or crypto-liquidity contracts when they function as broad risk/liquidity markets.
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
Daily Macro CME output
These rows are not trading signals. They show whether the input bundle is coherent enough to inspect: category coverage, venues, blocked inputs, and caveats.
crypto macro liquidity
2026-06-12 08:30 UTC · 585 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity, macro:us:rates:fomc, macro:us:volatility:vix_drawdown
Caveats
536 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is heuristic
row hash 36253a933d3a762636a1d72ef2b826d12f0ab40096d9ac0ab99991c56089c77b
growth stress bundle
2026-06-12 08:30 UTC · 114 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession, macro:us:rates:fomc, macro:us:volatility:vix_drawdown
Caveats
65 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is pending
row hash 38bdec3aa0f04483d6bc1f0640472177ec19f5c24e1e58a4cfe005eb2495fa33
inflation to fed path
2026-06-12 08:30 UTC · 148 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:inflation:cpi, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
56 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is heuristic
row hash 85aaf57b99e8db6b556a965e1f5704dfac6894485ac39983bf03d5487cd6cff6
labor to fed path
2026-06-12 08:30 UTC · 104 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession, macro:us:labor:unemployment, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
41 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is heuristic
row hash 874e73add66b14ad60530ab3f970a5f6b96bb67acf4ee615bd214e55e576ac6f
policy fiscal to macro path
2026-06-12 08:30 UTC · 193 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession, macro:us:inflation:cpi, macro:us:policy:fiscal_shock, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
101 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is pending
row hash 21328cd9fbefb99898ddbed2a6fd72241d5203a9e5595f29a9a8317f22c2a971
Market Trust macro caveats
Macro annotations are joined onto the Market Trust surface when a canary card has a matching venue and condition ID.
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level link is candidate; settlement-rule review still pending; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability