Research / Macro Coverage + Coherence v0.2
Macro prediction markets need source discipline before they need more tickers.
v0.2 turns the macro thesis into a materialized substrate: reviewed macro keys, official benchmark sources, venue mapping debt, daily CME bundle readiness, and macro caveats attached to Market Trust cards.
Experimental rating caveat
Market Trust Cards are experimental market-quality diagnostics, not compliance certifications or validated credit ratings.
Method freeze
v0.2 tests whether Convexly can keep macro market prices inspectable across source, venue, freshness, participant, and coherence dimensions. It does not claim complete coverage, venue-approved mappings, tradable expected value, or macro forecasting skill.
Included
Taxonomy, source registry, mapping queue, bundle-readiness rows, card caveats.
Excluded
Complete venue coverage, account-level Kalshi flow, macro alpha, or settlement guarantees.
Daily output
macro_cme_bundle_runs and macro_market_trust_annotations from the cron materializer.
Gate
A macro card is partial until exact condition-level co-listing and rule text are reviewed.
Registry coverage
The registry is intentionally category-first. Exact Polymarket or Kalshi condition IDs only become reviewed links after settlement source and date alignment.
876 active venue link rows
Candidate links are discovery debt, not consensus coverage. Reviewed exact links have condition-level settlement-rule review; rejected links remain counted so false positives cannot be rediscovered and silently promoted later.
Reviewed exact links
polymarket · reviewed
will-annual-inflation-increase-by-3pt1-in-april
macro:us:inflation:cpi
polymarket · reviewed
will-the-may-2026-unemployment-rate-be-4pt3
macro:us:labor:unemployment
polymarket · reviewed
will-6-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026
macro:us:rates:fomc
inflation
Inflation
Contracts tied to U.S. CPI, core CPI, PCE-style inflation prints, or month-over-month / year-over-year inflation thresholds.
macro:us:inflation:cpi
labor
Labor
Contracts tied to unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims, wage growth, or labor-market slack.
macro:us:labor:unemployment
rates_fed
Rates and Fed
Contracts tied to FOMC meetings, cuts, hikes, holds, target ranges, rate-path thresholds, and Treasury-rate context.
macro:us:rates:fomc
growth
Growth
Contracts tied to GDP prints, recession calls, soft-landing narratives, PMI/ISM, retail sales, or growth stress.
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession
volatility
Volatility
Contracts tied to VIX, market drawdowns, MOVE-style volatility, or equity-index stress thresholds.
macro:us:volatility:vix_drawdown
policy_fiscal
Policy and fiscal
Contracts tied to tariffs, shutdowns, debt ceiling, tax policy, budget, fiscal stress, or regulatory shocks.
macro:us:policy:fiscal_shock
crypto_macro
Crypto macro
Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETF, stablecoin, or crypto-liquidity contracts when they function as broad risk/liquidity markets.
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
Daily Macro CME output
These rows are not trading signals. They show whether the input bundle is coherent enough to inspect: category coverage, venues, blocked inputs, and caveats.
crypto macro liquidity
2026-05-15 04:36 UTC · 615 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity, macro:us:rates:fomc, macro:us:volatility:vix_drawdown
Caveats
555 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is heuristic
row hash f27a8ac7034f8503ea58f333824b166ab748fa0710f371eef8dec16d162e3d1f
growth stress bundle
2026-05-15 04:36 UTC · 179 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession, macro:us:rates:fomc, macro:us:volatility:vix_drawdown
Caveats
119 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is pending
row hash fea04ba919e560eaabec8d14c1ad152b66c13caeb5e709d819c319d15dd304bf
inflation to fed path
2026-05-15 04:36 UTC · 189 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:inflation:cpi, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
99 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is heuristic
row hash 953c381b6b6588689276284f70dd08c4e884782b2d6e83b30af522ca43d53b2d
labor to fed path
2026-05-15 04:36 UTC · 169 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession, macro:us:labor:unemployment, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
95 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is heuristic
row hash f82ec25ca4f3d2162045ffa91df8498e1eb95c877c1fe889af28ad1764d3d7c2
policy fiscal to macro path
2026-05-15 04:36 UTC · 222 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession, macro:us:inflation:cpi, macro:us:policy:fiscal_shock, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
132 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is pending
row hash 07deb384727ae1d0f7c86a637776020d0c247466af42e81e2321b44690ad1156
Market Trust macro caveats
Macro annotations are joined onto the Market Trust surface when a canary card has a matching venue and condition ID.
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level link is candidate; settlement-rule review still pending; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level link is candidate; settlement-rule review still pending; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level link is candidate; settlement-rule review still pending; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level link is candidate; settlement-rule review still pending; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level link is candidate; settlement-rule review still pending; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level link is candidate; settlement-rule review still pending; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level link is candidate; settlement-rule review still pending; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level link is candidate; settlement-rule review still pending; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability