Research / Macro Coverage + Coherence v0.2
Macro prediction markets need source discipline before they need more tickers.
Frozen 2026-09-05
The pre-registered forward test of Market Trust (AsPredicted #295174) returned the registered wording "Market Trust tiers do not separate on resolution cleanliness." A null is a valid pre-registered outcome, not a failure. Market Trust is frozen; this page is kept as dated history and does not describe a current product. The calibration verdict artifact is docs/ops/evidence/market-trust-v1-calibration-verdict/2026-07-30-terminal-analysis-point.json.
The registered label must not be read alone. The higher-trust arm held four markets, so no attainable outcome for that arm could clear the filed threshold, and the contrast is therefore not established. That is not the same as the arms being alike: no equivalence margin was filed, so the frozen result settles the question in neither direction.
v0.2 turns the macro thesis into a materialized substrate: reviewed macro keys, official benchmark sources, venue mapping debt, daily CME bundle readiness, and macro caveats attached to Market Trust cards.
Retention status (registry, added 2026-08-13): the live counts on this page are computed per request from rolling tables and no dated snapshot is written, so past readings are unrecoverable. What survives in git is the seed registry and the methodology; the coverage figures a reader saw on any past day do not.
Frozen rating caveat
The Market Trust rating surfaces were frozen on 2026-09-05. Cards recorded before then are experimental market-quality diagnostics, not compliance certifications and not credit ratings.
Method freeze
v0.2 tests whether Convexly can keep macro market prices inspectable across source, venue, freshness, participant, and coherence dimensions. It does not claim complete coverage, venue-approved mappings, tradable expected value, or macro forecasting skill.
Included
Taxonomy, source registry, mapping queue, bundle-readiness rows, card caveats.
Excluded
Complete venue coverage, account-level cross-venue flow, macro alpha, or settlement guarantees.
Daily output
macro_cme_bundle_runs and macro_market_trust_annotations from the cron materializer.
Gate
A macro card is partial until exact condition-level co-listing and rule text are reviewed.
Registry coverage
The registry is intentionally category-first. Public coverage here is Polymarket; exact condition IDs only become reviewed links after settlement source and date alignment.
422 active venue link rows
Candidate links are discovery debt, not consensus coverage. Reviewed exact links have condition-level settlement-rule review; rejected links remain counted so false positives cannot be rediscovered and silently promoted later.
Reviewed exact links
polymarket · reviewed
will-annual-inflation-increase-by-3pt1-in-april
macro:us:inflation:cpi
polymarket · reviewed
will-the-may-2026-unemployment-rate-be-4pt3
macro:us:labor:unemployment
polymarket · reviewed
will-6-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026
macro:us:rates:fomc
inflation
Inflation
Contracts tied to U.S. CPI, core CPI, PCE-style inflation prints, or month-over-month / year-over-year inflation thresholds.
macro:us:inflation:cpi
labor
Labor
Contracts tied to unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims, wage growth, or labor-market slack.
macro:us:labor:unemployment
rates_fed
Rates and Fed
Contracts tied to FOMC meetings, cuts, hikes, holds, target ranges, rate-path thresholds, and Treasury-rate context.
macro:us:rates:fomc
growth
Growth
Contracts tied to GDP prints, recession calls, soft-landing narratives, PMI/ISM, retail sales, or growth stress.
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession
volatility
Volatility
Contracts tied to VIX, market drawdowns, MOVE-style volatility, or equity-index stress thresholds.
macro:us:volatility:vix_drawdown
policy_fiscal
Policy and fiscal
Contracts tied to tariffs, shutdowns, debt ceiling, tax policy, budget, fiscal stress, or regulatory shocks.
macro:us:policy:fiscal_shock
crypto_macro
Crypto macro
Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETF, stablecoin, or crypto-liquidity contracts when they function as broad risk/liquidity markets.
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
Daily Macro CME output
These rows are not trading signals. They show whether the input bundle is coherent enough to inspect: category coverage, venues, blocked inputs, and caveats.
inflation to fed path
2026-09-10 04:57 UTC · 52 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:inflation:cpi, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
51 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is heuristic
row hash bd921b190e36788fcff4830ab6c5081659ed5090626ca568a80374d7407b9392
labor to fed path
2026-09-10 04:57 UTC · 43 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
42 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is heuristic; missing categories: Labor
row hash da45421154f88f5870c1807012c153944af4d601b884678df097e60c0b143bd6
growth stress bundle
2026-09-10 04:57 UTC · 43 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
42 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is pending; missing categories: Volatility
row hash f15272df27d4bcebe033fc4eff9c63ce7ab450518726d3ab84ccdc85dc8c1517
policy fiscal to macro path
2026-09-10 04:57 UTC · 63 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:us:growth:gdp_recession, macro:us:inflation:cpi, macro:us:policy:fiscal_shock, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
62 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is pending
row hash 11e1e767365ff15696cea9a2fa106b44256cd8582ba8a686853c16ca1085241a
crypto macro liquidity
2026-09-10 04:57 UTC · 85 markets · 1 venues
Macro keys
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity, macro:us:rates:fomc
Caveats
84 macro annotations blocked; bundle currently has one-venue coverage; bundle evidence status is heuristic; missing categories: Volatility
row hash f827935003ee9786a2b80889da1a93d4326d6b36ca3bacd91f7586310698387a
Market Trust macro caveats
Macro annotations are joined onto the Market Trust surface when a canary card has a matching venue and condition ID.
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; latest quote snapshot missing; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability
macro:crypto:btc_eth_liquidity
cross_venue_key missing; registry keyword match only; crypto threshold is treated as macro-liquidity context, not perps coverage; exact condition-level cross-venue link not reviewed; macro registry status is seeded; single-venue macro view; not a consensus probability