About
Convexly builds the calibration and sizing intelligence layer for prediction-market traders. We publish our methodology, score real wallets with frozen coefficients, and sell the scoring layer as infrastructure to operators, prop desks, sportsbooks, and data vendors.
Founder
Convexly is built by G.R., with a previous career in finance before pivoting to active-duty Army intelligence officer.
The work here is a continuation of that path: measuring uncertainty where being overconfident has consequences. Calibration and sizing discipline are not textbook concepts for that background; they are operational.
Views expressed on this site are personal and not affiliated with the United States Government or the Department of Defense.
What we publish
Open methodology. Our Edge Score composite has frozen coefficients, a published reference cohort, and a pre-registered validation protocol. Code and reproducibility details live in the methodology paper pre-registration.
Empirical studies. We publish the raw findings from our wallet studies, not just the conclusions. See the 10,000-wallet calibration audit.
Free tools. The Polymarket Wallet Analyzer and the Brier Score Calculator are public, no-signup, no-private-key tools. They are the same analysis layer we license to institutional buyers, just without the API and the custom reports.
Contact
For methodology review, research collaboration, or institutional inquiries: research@convexly.app.
Start with the work, not the bio.