About
Convexly scores prediction-market wallets and market quality with reproducible evidence. We publish our methodology, score real wallets with frozen coefficients, and package the scoring and audit layer as infrastructure for operators, prop desks, research teams, and data vendors.
What we publish
Open methodology. Our Edge Score composite has frozen coefficients, a published reference cohort, and validation scripts committed to git before the reported run. Code, limitations, and reproducibility details live in the V1 methodology paper.
Empirical studies. We publish the raw findings from our wallet studies, not just the conclusions. See the 10,000-wallet calibration audit.
Free tools. The Polymarket Wallet Analyzer and the Brier Score Calculator are public, no-signup, no-private-key tools. They are the same analysis layer we license to institutional buyers, just without the API and the custom reports.
How we publish
Methodology code is committed to a public git repository with pass-fail thresholds set before the validation script runs. Follow-up tests are filed externally with their hypothesis + analysis plan locked before any data is touched. Results publish whether they pass or fail; the negative-result registry at /research/negative-results is the receipt for that commitment.
Every quantitative claim is reproducible from a public data bundle with the documented seed. The audit chain walks SHA-256 hash-linked rows row-by-row in your browser at /research/verify. The full ex-ante filing index is at /research/preregistrations.
Contact
For methodology review, research collaboration, or institutional inquiries: research@convexly.app.
Start with the work.