Market Trust
Decide whether a market price is worth citing.
Convexly turns a prediction-market price into a market-quality scorecard: coherence, liquidity, depth, resolution reliability, participant quality, integrity-risk screens, and an audit trail. Current canary cards expose which inputs are measured, heuristic, pending, or blocked before a rating graduates into stable public methodology.
What this page tells you
Can I cite this price?
Use, use with caveats, discount, or do not cite.
Why that verdict?
Every card separates measured evidence, caveats, and receipts.
Why still preview?
Stable v1 needs more outcome history, coverage, and a frozen validation contract.
The internal canary can be healthy while the public v1 promotion gate remains open. That means the data is usable for review, not yet for stronger performance claims.
Experimental rating caveat
Market Trust Cards are experimental market-quality diagnostics, not compliance certifications or validated credit ratings.
Edge Score cohorts feed participant-quality evidence when a market has enough public scored-wallet flow: not person-level identity, but whether skilled public wallets drove meaningful activity.
Coherence Signals supply the structural-consistency layer: whether related market prices violate probability constraints after costs and caveats.
Track Record decides what Convexly can claim as evidence matures: modeled, resolved, externally verified, stale, pending, or failed.
Cross-venue disparities show reviewed Polymarket/Kalshi price gaps with settlement-rule caveats before any consensus number is treated as useful.
Use
Citable only with the current evidence trail attached.
Use with caveats
Useful, but the caveats should travel with the number.
Discount
A weak input for decisions until missing evidence improves.
Do not cite
Too thin, stale, incoherent, or unresolved to rely on.
Market-quality scorecard
One plain-English status plus a pillar-by-pillar explanation of whether a market is currently usable, caveated, discounted, or not citable.
Visible caveats
v0.2 separates measured inputs from heuristics, so a buyer can see which parts of the rating are mature and which are still evidence collection.
Audit trail
Each card carries source artifacts and a row hash, linking the public card back to the reproducible Convexly research ledger.
Market Trust v1 sample shape
A stable card must answer the buyer's next question.
v0.2 is still a candidate surface. The v1 promotion target is not just a higher score. It is a card a user can cite in a memo because the verdict, evidence, limits, and next action are all visible together.
Verdict
Can I quote this probability?
Use, use with caveats, discount, or do not cite, with the exact methodology version attached.
Evidence
What supports the verdict?
Coherence, depth, participant quality, resolution reliability, integrity-risk screens, and source health.
Limits
What is missing or blocked?
Unknown flow share, stale snapshots, dropped events, data-rights gaps, and heuristic inputs travel with the score.
Next action
What should I do with it?
Cite with caveats, monitor for freshness, request a partner feed, or wait for resolved-outcome evidence.
Current canary
Current candidate cards with visible evidence boundaries.
These cards come from the current Market Trust candidate table. They are useful for internal review and buyer demos, but remain a preview until freshness, coverage, and outcome-history gates stay green over time.
Market 0x8246b715242536356d2938f90df8b50271fcf6d7586495249e2e9f75a1101981
Decision read: Discount. Treat this card as a market-diligence snapshot, not a price forecast.
Score
95
interval 59-100
Evidence
4 measured
0 heuristic · 3 pending
Freshness
current
<1h lag
Current card issue: pending pillars present
Open diligence packetEvidence details +
Math guardrails
Quality
95
interval 59-100
Confidence
55
low
Driver
resolution rule text missing
Sensitivity
stable under sensitivity
Participant substrate
Pillar
pending
Scored flow
2.8%
1/55 accounts
Unknown flow
97.2%
verdict capped
artifact_hashes_present
Evidence: 4 measured · 0 heuristic · 3 pending · 0 blocked
audit 7b86ac0aafb37028985145d7cd55a876c00c22cfb5b0cc03cfdc036806ddcc0d
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 95 · Discount
- Coherencependingweight 20.0
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
—no contrib - Liquiditymeasuredweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
100+33.3 - Depthmeasuredweight 15.0
Deep book on both sides; large orders absorb without big mid-shift.
95+31.7 - Resolution reliabilitypendingweight 15.0
Resolution reliability input has not been linked yet.
—no contrib - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenmeasuredweight 10.0
Flow patterns clean; no wash-trade or coordination signals.
85+18.9 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
9 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
100+11.1
Market 0x033f077ee53e4fde9306bb009a527da77847b201c6d742eeeff59a1d3b2b0339
Decision read: Discount. Treat this card as a market-diligence snapshot, not a price forecast.
Score
86
interval 45-96
Evidence
4 measured
0 heuristic · 3 pending
Freshness
current
<1h lag
Current card issue: pending pillars present
Open diligence packetEvidence details +
Math guardrails
Quality
86
interval 45-96
Confidence
54
low
Driver
resolution rule text missing
Sensitivity
stable under sensitivity
Participant substrate
Pillar
pending
Scored flow
0.8%
1/49 accounts
Unknown flow
99.2%
verdict capped
artifact_hashes_present
Evidence: 4 measured · 0 heuristic · 3 pending · 0 blocked
audit 7d38c4f123864d34d28293591aabeeb36961e35fd33e18212598ef837835426b
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 86 · Discount
- Coherencependingweight 20.0
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
—no contrib - Liquiditymeasuredweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
100+33.3 - Depthmeasuredweight 15.0
Workable depth for retail size; institutional size will move price.
75+25.0 - Resolution reliabilitypendingweight 15.0
Resolution reliability input has not been linked yet.
—no contrib - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenmeasuredweight 10.0
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
75+16.7 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
95 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
100+11.1
Market 0x2d3c4fc5cde6dfb43448402b912e41bd4453e3f030448ed026bff8f1a0bc072e
Decision read: Discount. Treat this card as a market-diligence snapshot, not a price forecast.
Score
93
interval 52-100
Evidence
3 measured
1 heuristic · 3 pending
Freshness
current
<1h lag
Current card issue: insufficient measured pillars
Open diligence packetEvidence details +
Math guardrails
Quality
93
interval 52-100
Confidence
46
low
Driver
resolution rule text missing
Sensitivity
stable under sensitivity
Participant substrate
Pillar
pending
Scored flow
0%
0/9 accounts
Unknown flow
100%
verdict capped
artifact_hashes_present
Evidence: 3 measured · 1 heuristic · 3 pending · 0 blocked
audit 978dd3c7bc5a8e3a8c6e563b90ce84680844d1d747daa253e383e130457f61c9
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 93 · Discount
- Coherencependingweight 20.0
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
—no contrib - Liquiditymeasuredweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
100+33.3 - Depthmeasuredweight 15.0
Deep book on both sides; large orders absorb without big mid-shift.
95+31.7 - Resolution reliabilitypendingweight 15.0
Resolution reliability input has not been linked yet.
—no contrib - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenheuristicweight 10.0
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
75+16.7 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
100+11.1
Market 0x33ff7046623dc5abd8ef5623887b2cf8340638588058469c5c07cf5bb74e8718
Decision read: Discount. Treat this card as a market-diligence snapshot, not a price forecast.
Score
93
interval 52-100
Evidence
3 measured
1 heuristic · 3 pending
Freshness
current
<1h lag
Current card issue: insufficient measured pillars
Open diligence packetEvidence details +
Math guardrails
Quality
93
interval 52-100
Confidence
46
low
Driver
resolution rule text missing
Sensitivity
stable under sensitivity
Participant substrate
Pillar
pending
Scored flow
0%
1/18 accounts
Unknown flow
100%
verdict capped
artifact_hashes_present
Evidence: 3 measured · 1 heuristic · 3 pending · 0 blocked
audit 6e23ad2a7d94b6b6df37e003beee409d2e5482ecc6bb2c78afc3015cfb9b0fbc
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 93 · Discount
- Coherencependingweight 20.0
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
—no contrib - Liquiditymeasuredweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
100+33.3 - Depthmeasuredweight 15.0
Deep book on both sides; large orders absorb without big mid-shift.
95+31.7 - Resolution reliabilitypendingweight 15.0
Resolution reliability input has not been linked yet.
—no contrib - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenheuristicweight 10.0
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
75+16.7 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
100+11.1
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Decision read: Discount. Treat this card as a market-diligence snapshot, not a price forecast.
Score
85
interval 50-95
Evidence
3 measured
2 heuristic · 2 pending
Freshness
current
<1h lag
Current card issue: insufficient measured pillars
Open diligence packetEvidence details +
Math guardrails
Quality
85
interval 50-95
Confidence
56
low
Driver
resolution rule text missing
Sensitivity
stable under sensitivity
Participant substrate
Pillar
pending
Scored flow
3.1%
2/30 accounts
Unknown flow
96.9%
verdict capped
artifact_hashes_present
Evidence: 3 measured · 2 heuristic · 2 pending · 0 blocked
audit 57f58160329770580a05fdb7bcef164ae995118f3a4da5c396f5f7fcb75b4a54
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 85 · Discount
- Coherencependingweight 20.0
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
—no contrib - Liquiditymeasuredweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
100+25.0 - Depthmeasuredweight 15.0
Deep book on both sides; large orders absorb without big mid-shift.
95+23.8 - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 15.0
Partial resolution metadata is present; manual rule review remains pending.
55+13.8 - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenheuristicweight 10.0
Flow patterns clean; no wash-trade or coordination signals.
85+14.2 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
11 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
100+8.3
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Decision read: Do not cite. Treat this card as a market-diligence snapshot, not a price forecast.
Score
78
interval 41-88
Evidence
3 measured
2 heuristic · 2 pending
Freshness
current
<1h lag
Current card issue: insufficient measured pillars
Open diligence packetEvidence details +
Math guardrails
Quality
78
interval 41-88
Confidence
51
low
Driver
resolution rule text missing
Sensitivity
stable under sensitivity
Participant substrate
Pillar
pending
Scored flow
0%
0/11 accounts
Unknown flow
100%
verdict capped
artifact_hashes_present
Evidence: 3 measured · 2 heuristic · 2 pending · 0 blocked
audit 2bf79984a1ee4d6e965b0047920fd219ba1f7ae66fbe9c5c11b319fbd50cec6c
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 78 · Do not cite
- Coherencependingweight 20.0
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
—no contrib - Liquiditymeasuredweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
100+25.0 - Depthmeasuredweight 15.0
Deep book on both sides; large orders absorb without big mid-shift.
95+23.8 - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 15.0
Partial resolution metadata is present; manual rule review remains pending.
55+13.8 - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenheuristicweight 10.0
Heavy concentration / wash-pattern signals; treat with caution.
45+7.5 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
100+8.3
v0.2 maturation tracker
The promotion gate is evidence, not a version number.
The canary model should make a market legible to an advisor, journalist, venue operator, or institutional risk team: what supports the rating, what is still weak, and what has to resolve before Convexly can make stronger claims.
Current card issues
These are live card-health issues, not long-term v1 validation requirements.
Before stable v1
These are evidence requirements for public promotion. They can remain open while the internal canary batch is healthy.
Candidate cards
6
latest audit run
Measured inputs
48%
20/42 pillar inputs
Clean source
6/6
no stale snapshot or dropped events
Robust verdicts
6/6
sensitivity-stable cards
Pending
16
inputs still being collected
Blocked rights
0
data unavailable by policy
Pillar measurement
Participant quality
0/6 cards measured
Public wallet flow is joined into Edge Score cohorts when sample floors are met. The remaining work is coverage breadth, not inventing the pillar.
View wallet cohorts
Order book
Liquidity and depth
6/6 cards measured
Canary cards now distinguish shallow snapshots from measurable depth, so weak markets are downgraded instead of hidden behind a single score.
Open canary proof
Integrity
Integrity-risk screen
2/6 cards measured
Flow concentration and pattern screens are treated as evidence flags. They are not proof of intent, and they should travel with every rating.
Read method
Freshness
Source-health gate
6/6 cards clean
A card should not graduate while its source snapshot is stale or event drops are present. Freshness is part of the rating boundary.
Inspect source health
Robustness
Sensitivity check
6/6 verdicts stable
The score must survive leave-one-pillar-out and weight-perturbation checks before the verdict is safe to show as durable.
Review guardrails
Validation
Resolved-outcome ledger
0/6 cards unblocked
This is the claim-upgrade gate. Market Trust stays experimental until resolved cohorts show whether high-trust cards were actually more useful.
Track outcomes
Method
Formula freeze
0/6 cards unblocked
The formula must be frozen before validation so the backtest cannot silently move the target after seeing outcomes.
View preregs
Stable public snapshot
The stable public snapshot remains available while the candidate model earns production history. Search is intentionally simple: market slug, question, category, or condition ID.
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?
This market may be useful as an input, but it carries visible quality caveats. Cite the probability only alongside those caveats.
Evidence: 3 measured · 3 heuristic · 1 pending
v0.1 score
73
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
This market has enough quality concerns that the raw probability should be discounted unless corroborated by other evidence.
Evidence: 3 measured · 3 heuristic · 1 pending
v0.1 score
49
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?
This market has enough quality concerns that the raw probability should be discounted unless corroborated by other evidence.
Evidence: 3 measured · 3 heuristic · 1 pending
v0.1 score
47
Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
This market has enough quality concerns that the raw probability should be discounted unless corroborated by other evidence.
Evidence: 3 measured · 3 heuristic · 1 pending
v0.1 score
46
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $52 on the final trading day of June 2026?
This market should not be cited as meaningful evidence from Convexly's v0.1 perspective.
Evidence: 3 measured · 3 heuristic · 1 pending
v0.1 score
35