“audit-chained methodology”
What we do NOT claim
- audited methodology
- third-party audited
- certified
ReceiptLast verified: May 3, 2026
SHA-256 hash chain only; NOT external audit.
Convexly / Evidence
Every public claim, with its receipt.
For each public Convexly claim, the table below shows the allowed wording we use externally, the wordings we explicitly do not claim, the receipt URL you can verify against, and the last-verified date. Stale receipts (older than 30 days, or never re-verified) are flagged so you know when to discount.
The same machine-checkable list backs the pre-publication audit guard inside the codebase. If a Convexly outbound email, paper, or social post references a wording that is not on this page's allowed list, tell us — that is a bug, and we want to fix it.
11 public claims
Methodology start-here“transparency and independent integrity inherent in the blockchain”
What we do NOT claim
- blockchain validates
- on-chain proves
- cryptographically certified
No external receiptLast verified: Never re-verifiedStale
Public-ledger framing only.
“out-of-fold Spearman +0.514 (p < 0.0001) on the V1 cohort”
What we do NOT claim
- validated
- proves
- demonstrates
ReceiptLast verified: May 3, 2026
V1-M paper 2026-04-22.
“24-of-24 aggregators failed to beat market-implied baseline”
What we do NOT claim
- MarketAlpha works
- aggregation alpha
ReceiptLast verified: May 3, 2026
AsPredicted #287436 + #287442 + #287714.
“V1.5 paper reports both pre-registered primary tests failed, openly”
What we do NOT claim
- successful pre-registration
- pre-registration validated
ReceiptLast verified: May 3, 2026
AsPredicted #287368.
“cross-venue activity flags showing each wallets activity across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold”
What we do NOT claim
- per-wallet identity reveals
- wallet identity dataset
- verified identity
ReceiptLast verified: May 3, 2026
Phase 2B claim-discipline pass.
“Top-50 by Edge Score (>=20 resolved positions; current cohort 50 wallets out of 69 qualifying)”
What we do NOT claim
- Top 100 leaderboard
- top-100 ranked wallets
ReceiptLast verified: May 3, 2026
B3 leaderboard correction shipped 2026-05-02.
“CFTC ANPRM comment filed 2026-04-29 (mok-lrhf-09it) on the perpetual-derivatives rulemaking”
What we do NOT claim
- CFTC partnership
- CFTC endorsement
ReceiptLast verified: May 3, 2026
Public docket entry.
“co-filing posture with the Hyperliquid Policy Center for the next regulatory window”
What we do NOT claim
- HPC partnership
- joint HPC filing
No external receiptLast verified: Never re-verifiedStale
Public X reply 2026-05-01; private cadence DM pending.
“modeled net EV at prescribed size”
What we do NOT claim
- executable alpha
- realized alpha
- proven alpha
- beats matched controls
No external receiptLast verified: Never re-verifiedStale
Pre-registration planned for Mon 2026-05-04; do not claim filed until external receipt URL and AsPredicted ID are recorded. Gated by V0.1.6 backtest stack. Verdict expectation Q4 2026 / Q1 2027 (full envelope) with 30-pair floor potentially hit late July 2026 on the early-resolving subset. Once filed, follow-up migration writes the actual AsPredicted ID + receipt_url + last_verified_at.
“planned venue-level audit format; pilot scope and timing depend on V0.1.6 validation; nothing shipping yet”
What we do NOT claim
- Market Quality Audit ships next
- audit available now
- request sample report
ReceiptLast verified: May 3, 2026
No sample exists today.
How this page is built
Same source the codebase audits against.
Every row above is a record in the claim_registry Postgres table. The same table powers a pre-publication audit guard inside the codebase: outbound copy is greppable against the union of allowed wordings, and any unsafe wording must come with an external receipt URL or a formal statistical test before it ships. The page reads from the same source so external readers and internal authors see identical state.
For the audit doctrine, see /research/start-here and the credibility-claim audit section of the project CLAUDE.md (mandatory for every external send).