“V1.5 paper reports both pre-registered primary tests failed, openly”
ReceiptLast verified: May 5, 2026
Convexly / Evidence
Every public claim, with its receipt.
For each public Convexly claim, the table below shows the allowed wording we use externally, the receipt URL you can verify against, and the last-verified date.
The same machine-checkable list backs the pre-publication audit guard inside the codebase. If a Convexly outbound email, paper, or social post references a wording that is not on this page's allowed list, tell us - that is a bug, and we want to fix it.
Is the claim live?
Live means the product surface may use the wording shown here.
Is the proof external?
External verification is separate from Convexly-hosted evidence.
15 public claims, 1 externally verified
A Convexly-hosted receipt means our own records, source code, public data bundles, audit-chain entries, or filings we publish ourselves. It is useful support, but it is not an external certification.
“audit-chained methodology”
ReceiptLast verified: May 3, 2026
“transparency and independent integrity inherent in the blockchain”
No external receiptLast verified: Never re-verified
“Settlement index: 2,835,501 ConditionResolution events read from the Polygon conditional-token contract, contiguous from the declared floor block 6,205,069 through block 92,639,309, as of 2026-08-25 15:45 UTC.”
- Re-derivable against any Polygon RPC.
- Manifest sha256 040106a7d2f650a88186623d2332dc90d0bfd0a0a406c38e491f075117b2f6f2.
- The floor block is operator-declared, not verified: it is the lowest block at which one of these events was seen in an earlier scan. The frame is one contract and one event topic, so conditions settled by any other mechanism are outside it.
ReceiptLast verified: Aug 25, 2026
“out-of-fold Spearman +0.514 (p < 0.0001) on the V1 cohort”
ReceiptLast verified: May 3, 2026
“24-of-24 aggregators failed to beat market-implied baseline”
ReceiptLast verified: May 3, 2026
“median and volume-weighted Edge Score V3b of wallets active on this market in the trailing 7 / 30 / 60 days; nulled below n_unique_wallets >= 5”
ReceiptLast verified: Never re-verified
“frozen-methodology rating of market trustworthiness across seven pillars; rating is a diligence input, not advice or a price prediction”
ReceiptLast verified: Never re-verified
“heuristic resolution-risk score from subjective wording, liquidity floor, time-to-resolution proximity, and category historical UMA dispute rate; produced by the resolution-risk scorer in the CME v0.1 pipeline”
ReceiptLast verified: Never re-verified
“cross-venue activity flags showing each wallets activity across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold”
ReceiptLast verified: May 3, 2026
“The public board: a closed set of 50 Polymarket addresses selected once on 2026-04-19 and never added to, listed in order of scored resolved positions (not a skill or profit ranking); publication floor 20 scored resolved positions”
ReceiptLast verified: May 3, 2026
“co-filing posture with the Hyperliquid Policy Center for the next regulatory window”
No external receiptLast verified: Never re-verified
“Public CFTC comment No. 115669 by Gianlorenzo Ranieri for Convexly, dated April 29, 2026, on the Prediction Markets ANPRM (91 FR 12516). Automated receipt verification is currently unavailable.”
ReceiptLast verified: Never re-verified
“modeled net EV at prescribed size”
No external receiptLast verified: Never re-verified
“planned venue-level audit format; pilot scope and timing depend on V0.1.6 validation; nothing shipping yet”
ReceiptLast verified: May 3, 2026
How this page is built
Same source the codebase audits against.
Every row above is a record in the claim_registry Postgres table. The same table powers a pre-publication audit guard inside the codebase: outbound copy is greppable against the union of allowed wordings, and any unsafe wording must come with an external receipt URL or a formal statistical test before it ships. The page reads from the same source so external readers and internal authors see identical state.
For the audit doctrine, see /research/start-here and the pre-publication claim audit that every external send runs through.