Market Trust
Decide whether a market price is worth citing.
Convexly turns a prediction-market price into a market-quality scorecard: coherence, liquidity, depth, resolution reliability, participant quality, integrity-risk screens, and an audit trail. Current canary cards expose which inputs are measured, heuristic, pending, or blocked before a rating graduates into stable public methodology.
What this page tells you
Can I cite this price?
Use, use with caveats, discount, or do not cite.
Why that verdict?
Every card separates measured evidence, caveats, and receipts.
Why still preview?
Stable v1 needs more outcome history, coverage, and a frozen validation contract.
The internal canary can be healthy while the public v1 promotion gate remains open. That means the data is usable for review, not yet for stronger performance claims.
Experimental rating caveat
Market Trust Cards are experimental market-quality diagnostics, not compliance certifications or validated credit ratings.
Edge Score cohorts feed participant-quality evidence when a market has enough public scored-wallet flow: not person-level identity, but whether skilled public wallets drove meaningful activity.
Coherence Signals supply the structural-consistency layer: whether related market prices violate probability constraints after costs and caveats.
Track Record decides what Convexly can claim as evidence matures: modeled, resolved, externally verified, stale, pending, or failed.
Cross-venue disparities show reviewed Polymarket/Kalshi price gaps with settlement-rule caveats before any consensus number is treated as useful.
Use
Citable only with the current evidence trail attached.
Use with caveats
Useful, but the caveats should travel with the number.
Discount
A weak input for decisions until missing evidence improves.
Do not cite
Too thin, stale, incoherent, or unresolved to rely on.
Market-quality scorecard
One plain-English status plus a pillar-by-pillar explanation of whether a market is currently usable, caveated, discounted, or not citable.
Visible caveats
v0.2 separates measured inputs from heuristics, so a buyer can see which parts of the rating are mature and which are still evidence collection.
Audit trail
Each card carries source artifacts and a row hash, linking the public card back to the reproducible Convexly research ledger.
Market Trust v1 sample shape
A stable card must answer the buyer's next question.
v0.2 is still a candidate surface. The v1 promotion target is not just a higher score. It is a card a user can cite in a memo because the verdict, evidence, limits, and next action are all visible together.
Verdict
Can I quote this probability?
Use, use with caveats, discount, or do not cite, with the exact methodology version attached.
Evidence
What supports the verdict?
Coherence, depth, participant quality, resolution reliability, integrity-risk screens, and source health.
Limits
What is missing or blocked?
Unknown flow share, stale snapshots, dropped events, data-rights gaps, and heuristic inputs travel with the score.
Next action
What should I do with it?
Cite with caveats, monitor for freshness, request a partner feed, or wait for resolved-outcome evidence.
Current canary
Current candidate cards with visible evidence boundaries.
These cards come from the current Market Trust candidate table. They are useful for internal review and buyer demos, but remain a preview until freshness, coverage, and outcome-history gates stay green over time.
Market 0x8246b715242536356d2938f90df8b50271fcf6d7586495249e2e9f75a1101981
Decision read: Discount. Treat this card as a market-diligence snapshot, not a price forecast.
Score
95
interval 59-100
Evidence
4 measured
0 heuristic · 3 pending
Freshness
current
<1h lag
Current card issue: pending pillars present
Open diligence packetEvidence details +
Math guardrails
Quality
95
interval 59-100
Confidence
55
low
Driver
resolution rule text missing
Sensitivity
stable under sensitivity
Participant substrate
Pillar
pending
Scored flow
2.9%
1/55 accounts
Unknown flow
97.2%
verdict capped
artifact_hashes_present
Evidence: 4 measured · 0 heuristic · 3 pending · 0 blocked
audit 53a5a054177e0930f937fe7cfc02237dff5fb8be3342796c7863fe25b7d2bd1a
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 95 · Discount
- Coherencependingweight 20.0
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
—no contrib - Liquiditymeasuredweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
100+33.3 - Depthmeasuredweight 15.0
Deep book on both sides; large orders absorb without big mid-shift.
95+31.7 - Resolution reliabilitypendingweight 15.0
Resolution reliability input has not been linked yet.
—no contrib - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenmeasuredweight 10.0
Flow patterns clean; no wash-trade or coordination signals.
85+18.9 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
27 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
100+11.1
Market 0xbd5922eed56186e904c4f327658e8c0cbd88cd854114d0906208f8b65cce6718
Decision read: Discount. Treat this card as a market-diligence snapshot, not a price forecast.
Score
95
interval 56-100
Evidence
3 measured
1 heuristic · 3 pending
Freshness
current
<1h lag
Current card issue: insufficient measured pillars
Open diligence packetEvidence details +
Math guardrails
Quality
95
interval 56-100
Confidence
51
low
Driver
resolution rule text missing
Sensitivity
stable under sensitivity
Participant substrate
Pillar
pending
Scored flow
0%
0/18 accounts
Unknown flow
100%
verdict capped
artifact_hashes_present
Evidence: 3 measured · 1 heuristic · 3 pending · 0 blocked
audit c274d76d9a6b235df375729f9b3d0f8817354a5479eed89bc1f7978d62ce01de
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 95 · Discount
- Coherencependingweight 20.0
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
—no contrib - Liquiditymeasuredweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
100+33.3 - Depthmeasuredweight 15.0
Deep book on both sides; large orders absorb without big mid-shift.
95+31.7 - Resolution reliabilitypendingweight 15.0
Resolution reliability input has not been linked yet.
—no contrib - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenheuristicweight 10.0
Flow patterns clean; no wash-trade or coordination signals.
85+18.9 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
7 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
100+11.1
Market 0x95819f1669d9a6a5c54b19f02ffcf768ac5208b7424c161b7da046b53e707b93
Decision read: Discount. Treat this card as a market-diligence snapshot, not a price forecast.
Score
93
interval 52-100
Evidence
3 measured
1 heuristic · 3 pending
Freshness
current
<1h lag
Current card issue: insufficient measured pillars
Open diligence packetEvidence details +
Math guardrails
Quality
93
interval 52-100
Confidence
51
low
Driver
resolution rule text missing
Sensitivity
stable under sensitivity
Participant substrate
Pillar
pending
Scored flow
0%
0/8 accounts
Unknown flow
100%
verdict capped
artifact_hashes_present
Evidence: 3 measured · 1 heuristic · 3 pending · 0 blocked
audit 78f2d218ebca6952cdeb8ac4c7ebd2089bf1f41902bf79f4238ad5d8f5e7285b
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 93 · Discount
- Coherencependingweight 20.0
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
—no contrib - Liquiditymeasuredweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
100+33.3 - Depthmeasuredweight 15.0
Deep book on both sides; large orders absorb without big mid-shift.
95+31.7 - Resolution reliabilitypendingweight 15.0
Resolution reliability input has not been linked yet.
—no contrib - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenheuristicweight 10.0
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
75+16.7 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
13 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
100+11.1
Market 0xca68152902c3581ab42feb04921b8b1cd3c4e80d06f255ae077259fca0bba15c
Decision read: Discount. Treat this card as a market-diligence snapshot, not a price forecast.
Score
93
interval 45-100
Evidence
3 measured
0 heuristic · 4 pending
Freshness
current
<1h lag
Current card issue: insufficient measured pillars
Open diligence packetEvidence details +
Math guardrails
Quality
93
interval 45-100
Confidence
41
low
Driver
resolution rule text missing
Sensitivity
stable under sensitivity
Participant substrate
Pillar
pending
Scored flow
0%
0/5 accounts
Unknown flow
100%
verdict capped
artifact_hashes_present
Evidence: 3 measured · 0 heuristic · 4 pending · 0 blocked
audit cc7e15dad075b9045d1209e4f1dd0af09fd0d12e14d289bcd61efb36499552db
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 93 · Discount
- Coherencependingweight 20.0
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
—no contrib - Liquiditymeasuredweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
100+42.9 - Depthmeasuredweight 15.0
Deep book on both sides; large orders absorb without big mid-shift.
95+40.7 - Resolution reliabilitypendingweight 15.0
Resolution reliability input has not been linked yet.
—no contrib - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenpendingweight 10.0
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
75no contrib - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
100+14.3
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Decision read: Do not cite. Treat this card as a market-diligence snapshot, not a price forecast.
Score
67
interval 43-73
Evidence
5 measured
1 heuristic · 1 pending
Freshness
current
<1h lag
Current card issue: pending pillars present
Open diligence packetEvidence details +
Math guardrails
Quality
67
interval 43-73
Confidence
66
medium
Driver
resolution rule text missing
Sensitivity
fragile under sensitivity
Participant substrate
Pillar
pending
Scored flow
1.7%
4/151 accounts
Unknown flow
98.3%
verdict capped
19 possible wash round-trips detected
Evidence: 5 measured · 1 heuristic · 1 pending · 0 blocked
audit c6118688d3a7e138621f72b5042b21ffe5361e2b43abb1fc675bb02b57f021fb
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 67 · Do not cite
- Coherencemeasuredweight 20.0
4 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 23 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
30+7.5 - Liquiditymeasuredweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
100+18.8 - Depthmeasuredweight 15.0
Workable depth for retail size; institutional size will move price.
75+14.1 - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 15.0
Partial resolution metadata is present; manual rule review remains pending.
55+10.3 - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenmeasuredweight 10.0
Flow patterns clean; no wash-trade or coordination signals.
82+10.3 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
100+6.3
Market 0xe5bd80313b8859e3f5761568ac9498866ea9d4419e4d1b6a877a9a9bd2754cb4
Decision read: Do not cite. Treat this card as a market-diligence snapshot, not a price forecast.
Score
83
interval 33-95
Evidence
3 measured
0 heuristic · 4 pending
Freshness
current
<1h lag
Current card issue: insufficient measured pillars
Open diligence packetEvidence details +
Math guardrails
Quality
83
interval 33-95
Confidence
41
low
Driver
resolution rule text missing
Sensitivity
stable under sensitivity
Participant substrate
Pillar
pending
Scored flow
0%
0/5 accounts
Unknown flow
100%
verdict capped
20% of wallet/side pairs appear repeatedly
Evidence: 3 measured · 0 heuristic · 4 pending · 0 blocked
audit 3db573ce3ea7c446fc12ed26df580f8738c225930e63a02bf4a2def689ed8d4d
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 83 · Do not cite
- Coherencependingweight 20.0
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
—no contrib - Liquiditymeasuredweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
95+40.7 - Depthmeasuredweight 15.0
Workable depth for retail size; institutional size will move price.
75+32.1 - Resolution reliabilitypendingweight 15.0
Resolution reliability input has not been linked yet.
—no contrib - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenpendingweight 10.0
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
67no contrib - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
100+14.3
v0.2 maturation tracker
The promotion gate is evidence, not a version number.
The canary model should make a market legible to an advisor, journalist, venue operator, or institutional risk team: what supports the rating, what is still weak, and what has to resolve before Convexly can make stronger claims.
Current card issues
These are live card-health issues, not long-term v1 validation requirements.
Before stable v1
These are evidence requirements for public promotion. They can remain open while the internal canary batch is healthy.
Candidate cards
6
latest audit run
Measured inputs
50%
21/42 pillar inputs
Clean source
6/6
no stale snapshot or dropped events
Robust verdicts
5/6
sensitivity-stable cards
Pending
18
inputs still being collected
Blocked rights
0
data unavailable by policy
Pillar measurement
Participant quality
0/6 cards measured
Public wallet flow is joined into Edge Score cohorts when sample floors are met. The remaining work is coverage breadth, not inventing the pillar.
View wallet cohorts
Order book
Liquidity and depth
6/6 cards measured
Canary cards now distinguish shallow snapshots from measurable depth, so weak markets are downgraded instead of hidden behind a single score.
Open canary proof
Integrity
Integrity-risk screen
2/6 cards measured
Flow concentration and pattern screens are treated as evidence flags. They are not proof of intent, and they should travel with every rating.
Read method
Freshness
Source-health gate
6/6 cards clean
A card should not graduate while its source snapshot is stale or event drops are present. Freshness is part of the rating boundary.
Inspect source health
Robustness
Sensitivity check
5/6 verdicts stable
The score must survive leave-one-pillar-out and weight-perturbation checks before the verdict is safe to show as durable.
Review guardrails
Validation
Resolved-outcome ledger
0/6 cards unblocked
This is the claim-upgrade gate. Market Trust stays experimental until resolved cohorts show whether high-trust cards were actually more useful.
Track outcomes
Method
Formula freeze
0/6 cards unblocked
The formula must be frozen before validation so the backtest cannot silently move the target after seeing outcomes.
View preregs
Stable public snapshot
The stable public snapshot remains available while the candidate model earns production history. Search is intentionally simple: market slug, question, category, or condition ID.
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
This market has enough quality concerns that the raw probability should be discounted unless corroborated by other evidence.
Evidence: 3 measured · 3 heuristic · 1 pending
v0.1 score
49
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?
This market has enough quality concerns that the raw probability should be discounted unless corroborated by other evidence.
Evidence: 3 measured · 3 heuristic · 1 pending
v0.1 score
47
Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
This market has enough quality concerns that the raw probability should be discounted unless corroborated by other evidence.
Evidence: 3 measured · 3 heuristic · 1 pending
v0.1 score
46