Market Trust
ExperimentalDecide whether a market price is strong enough to cite.
Paste a market and get one of four answers, with the caveat and receipt attached: use it, use it with caveats, discount it, or do not cite it. During canary calibration most prices land at discount or do not cite: that is the diagnostic doing its job, not a gap.
Strong enough only with the current evidence trail attached.
Useful, but the caveats should travel with the number.
A weak input for decisions until missing evidence improves.
Too thin, stale, incoherent, or unresolved to rely on.
One scale, strongest warning on the right · 6 markets graded in the canary preview set
Market Trust remains a preview until resolved-outcome history and the frozen validation contract are mature enough for v1.
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1. Start with use, use with caveats, discount, or do not cite.
2. Carry the caveat with the market price.
3. Open the receipt only when you need the technical proof.
Experimental rating caveat
Market Trust Cards are experimental market-quality diagnostics, not compliance certifications or validated credit ratings.
Market-quality scorecard
One plain-English status plus a pillar-by-pillar explanation of whether a market is currently usable, caveated, discounted, or too weak to rely on.
Visible caveats
v0.2 separates measured inputs from heuristics, so a buyer can see which parts of the rating are mature and which are still evidence collection.
Audit trail
Each card carries source artifacts and a row hash, linking the public card back to the reproducible Convexly research ledger.
Future stable-card shape
A stable card must answer the buyer's next question.
This is still a preview surface. A stable rating is not just a higher score. It is a card a user can cite in a memo because the verdict, evidence, limits, and next action are all visible together.
Verdict
Can I quote this probability?
Use, use with caveats, discount, or do not cite, with the exact methodology version attached.
Evidence
What supports the verdict?
Coherence, depth, participant quality, resolution reliability, integrity-risk screens, and source health.
Limits
What is missing or blocked?
Unknown flow share, stale snapshots, dropped events, data-rights gaps, and heuristic inputs travel with the score.
Next action
What should I do with it?
Cite with caveats, monitor for freshness, request a partner feed, or wait for resolved-outcome evidence.
Current canary
Current candidate cards with visible evidence boundaries.
These cards come from the current Market Trust candidate table. They are useful for internal review and buyer demos, but remain a preview until freshness, coverage, and outcome-history gates stay green over time.
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
Bottom line
Do not cite. Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence.
On this market the binding constraint is Executability (15/100): Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
This 0–100 score grades the market’s quality and citability, not its odds; a market can trade at any probability and still score low.
Trust score /100
37
interval 6-45
Evidence
3 measured
2 heuristic · 1 pending
Freshness
current
<1h lag
Current card issue: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
Executive answer
Do not cite: treat this as a market-diligence snapshot, not a price forecast.
Research preview status
What this preview can and cannot tell you yet.
The canary model should make a market legible to an advisor, journalist, venue operator, or institutional risk team: what supports the rating, what is still weak, and what has to resolve before Convexly can make stronger claims.
Current card issues
These are live card-health issues, not long-term validation requirements.
Before a stable rating
These are evidence requirements for public promotion. They can remain open while the internal canary batch is healthy.
Candidate cards
6
latest audit run
Measured inputs
53%
19/36 pillar inputs
Clean source
6/6
no stale snapshot or dropped events
Sensitivity-stable verdicts
4/6
sensitivity-stable cards
Pending
7
inputs still being collected
Blocked rights
0
data unavailable by policy
Production readiness
What we're still proving before this is a stable rating.
Market Trust is usable as a preview diligence packet, not a stable public rating contract. The goal is a packet a buyer can cite because the verdict, caveat, source status, participant evidence, integrity screen, and validation limits are all visible together.
Current contract
Status: canary_preview. Founder approval is required before this moves from preview to a stable public rating.
Stable public snapshot
The stable public snapshot remains available while the candidate model earns production history. Search is intentionally simple: market slug, question, category, or condition ID.
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
This market has enough quality concerns that the raw probability should be discounted unless corroborated by other evidence.
Evidence: 3 measured · 3 heuristic · 1 pending
v0.1 score
49
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?
This market has enough quality concerns that the raw probability should be discounted unless corroborated by other evidence.
Evidence: 3 measured · 3 heuristic · 1 pending
v0.1 score
47
Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
This market has enough quality concerns that the raw probability should be discounted unless corroborated by other evidence.
Evidence: 3 measured · 3 heuristic · 1 pending
v0.1 score
46