Free Polymarket Wallet Analyzer
Paste any wallet address. Get calibration (Brier score), position sizing diagnostics, concentration share, and your Edge Score against our 8,656-wallet reference cohort in 30 seconds.
Built by the team behind the 10,000-wallet Polymarket calibration audit. We publish the methodology, the coefficients, and the data.
How the scoring works
Brier score
A proper scoring rule for probabilistic forecasts. Lower is better. 0.00 is perfect. 0.25 is a coin flip on a 50/50 market. 0.50 is always wrong. The Brier score is the standard calibration metric used by forecasting researchers since Glenn Brier's 1950 paper.
Skill vs. baseline
We compare the wallet's Brier score against a naive baseline: always predict the base rate. A trader who beats the baseline by 0.05+ on 50+ resolved positions is demonstrating real edge. A profitable wallet that doesn't beat the baseline is making money from sizing and variance, not calibration.
Volume-weighted fills
A single whale bet fills across dozens of orderbook chunks, each landing as a separate /activity row. We aggregate fills by (market, side) and use volume-weighted average price so the Brier score measures actual predictions, not orderbook chunking.
Concentration check
One election or one sports event can produce a full career of P&L for a concentrated whale. We show the single biggest event's contribution so you can see whether the track record is built on hundreds of calibrated bets or one huge conviction trade.
Edge Score
Edge Score is our composite layer on top of the three metrics above. We fit calibration, sizing discipline, and concentration risk jointly against realized profit on a frozen cohort of 8,656 wallets. Your result is expressed as a percentile against that cohort. For the full derivation, see the 10K-wallet study.
Frequently asked questions
What is a Polymarket wallet analyzer?
A tool that takes a public Polymarket wallet address and computes a full calibration and sizing breakdown from on-chain trading history. Convexly's analyzer returns a Brier score, category-level calibration, position sizing diagnostics, concentration share, and a composite Edge Score ranked against 8,656 reference wallets. It runs in 30 seconds and does not require a signup, a signature, or a private key.
How do I find my Polymarket wallet address?
Open polymarket.com, click your profile picture in the top right, and copy the address shown under your username. It starts with 0x and has 40 hexadecimal characters. That is the same public address you paste into the analyzer.
What is a Brier score?
A Brier score measures how well a probabilistic forecast matches reality. It ranges from 0 (perfect) to 1 (always wrong), with 0.25 being a coin flip on a 50/50 market. It has been the standard scoring rule for probabilistic forecasters since Glenn Brier's 1950 paper. Convexly computes a Brier score for every resolved Polymarket position and breaks the number down by market category (politics, sports, crypto, etc.) so you can see where you are well calibrated and where you are not.
What is Edge Score?
Edge Score is Convexly's composite scoring layer. It combines three dimensions that empirically predict Polymarket profitability: posture (how a wallet positions relative to its own base-rate calibration), conviction (what share of P&L comes from a single market), and discipline (how tightly position count is managed). The composite is fit against a frozen reference cohort of 8,656 wallets. Calibration alone explains only ~2% of profit variance (Spearman r = +0.148); the composite does meaningfully better. Posture was previously labeled Calibration; the rename on 2026-04-18 aligned the label with the direction of the coefficient in the OLS fit.
Is the wallet analyzer really free?
Yes. The analyzer at /tools/polymarket-wallet-analyzer is free, unlimited per wallet, and requires no signup. Rate limiting is set at 3 analyses per 5 minutes per IP to protect the upstream Polymarket API, not to gate the tool. Convexly's paid plans cover multi-venue tracking (Kalshi, Manifold), live resolution, and institutional API access.
Does Convexly need my private key or wallet signature?
No. Convexly reads only public on-chain data. You paste a wallet address. We fetch the same trade history anyone could see on Polygon explorers. No private key, no signature, no transaction authorization is ever required.
How many trades do I need for a meaningful analysis?
The analyzer will return results at any volume, but calibration numbers stabilize around 30 resolved positions. Our internal studies use a minimum of 5 resolved fills per wallet as the inclusion criterion. Below that, the Brier score is dominated by noise and Edge Score percentile should be interpreted loosely.
Can I analyze someone else's wallet?
Yes. Polymarket wallet addresses are public. You can paste any 0x address you know. The landing page includes demo links for well-known whale wallets (e.g. Theo4, ranked #1 by all-time PnL) so you can see a full analyzer output before pasting your own address.
Your next prediction deserves this too
Convexly is the unified calibration scoreboard for prediction market traders. Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold tracked together. One Edge Score across every venue. Sign up free and start logging your calibration today.
Other Convexly tools and research
Calibration Challenge
10-question forecasting quiz. Brier score and percentile ranking in under 2 minutes. No signup required.
Kalshi Integration
Import Kalshi trades via CSV. Every resolved trade auto-scored with calibration and sizing analysis.
Polymarket Whale Audit
Top 100 wallets analyzed. Coordination patterns, cluster detection, and the skill-vs-variance split.