Blog
Practical explanations of calibration, concentration and position sizing. Each article states its evidence and limits. For the underlying research, see the research index.
What the discipline inversion means if you actually trade
Operator note on the updated Convexly V1-M finding: the recovered politics-excluded rerun reports -9.2pp lower concentration (95% CI [-12.8, -3.6], p = 0.0021). Causal language and the calibration secondary claim are superseded.
Base Rate Neglect on Prediction Markets
Traders price specific narratives and ignore historical frequencies. Incumbents, favorites, repeat performers. The base rate is the anchor. The wallet analyzer shows how often that anchor is ignored.
Overconfidence and Position Sizing on Polymarket
The 10K-wallet study shows calibration barely predicts profit, but overconfidence still kills. Under Hill α = 1.28, oversized bets blow up even when the probability looks right.
Kelly Criterion for Prediction Markets: Why Quarter-Kelly or Less
The Kelly derivation from Bell Labs to Thorp, and why Polymarket's fat-tailed returns demand quarter-Kelly sizing inside a Taleb barbell, not the half-Kelly defaults from finite-variance markets.
The Brier Score: Necessary but Not Sufficient on Prediction Markets
The formula, the benchmarks, and the uncomfortable finding: across 8,656 Polymarket wallets, Brier explains only ~2% of profit-rank variance. Calibration tells you you won't blow up. It does not tell you you'll win.