Research / Market-quality rating
Market Trust Card v0.1.
Prediction-market odds are becoming easier to quote than to diligence. The Market Trust Card is Convexly's first public market-level rating surface: a daily, source-linked reading of whether a specific market looks deep, coherent, reliable, and citable enough to deserve attention.
v0.1 is experimental. It is not investment advice, not a compliance certification, not a claim that a market will resolve correctly, and not yet a validated rating model. The point of v0.1 is to publish the artifact, caveats, and source trail before Convexly files a v0.2 backtest.
What it measures
The card turns the product thesis into a single market-level reading: odds are more useful when the market is coherent, liquid, capacity-aware, resolution-clean, and eventually supported by credible participant flow.
Coherence violations from the CME daily snapshot.
Liquidity and volume from the Gamma snapshot.
Orderbook depth and spread from published CLOB snapshots.
Capacity/slippage heuristics from depth and ladder data.
Participant-quality rollups from wallet activity snapshots.
Manipulation-risk flags as a conservative placeholder.
Resolution reliability from the CME resolution-risk inputs.
Current public cards
The v0.1 public run intentionally exposes five cards per daily snapshot. The limited scope keeps the claim honest while the underlying data ledger accumulates enough history for a pre-registered v0.2 validation.
what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?
cl-over-under-jun-2026
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $52 on the final trading day of June 2026?
which-artists-will-release-a-new-song-in-2026
Will Drake release a new song in 2026?
will-solstice-launch-a-token-by
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?
which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?
Claim discipline
The only public wording v0.1 allows is: experimental v0.1 market trust card, independent market-quality reading with visible caveats, and daily 24-hour public snapshot derived from source-linked Convexly artifacts. It does not permit certified, approved, validated, manipulation-free, or investment-advice language.
The next research step is to accumulate cards, file a v0.2 AsPredicted plan before analysis, and publish both the successes and the failures. Until then, the v0.1 surface is a transparent product artifact and a data-collection harness, not a finished ratings business.