Answers
Understand a wallet’s record, a market’s outcome, or the numbers in your analysis. Each answer includes its sources and limits.
25 answers
Who audits prediction-market trader skill?
Convexly checks available Polymarket wallet records, their data coverage, and the limits of historical skill tests. No venue buys coverage.
How do you audit a cohort of Polymarket wallets?
Score each wallet's resolved positions with a confidence interval, apply false-discovery-rate control across the whole set so testing many wallets does not manufacture false positives, then report which are distinguishable from chance.
What are the best Polymarket analytics tools in 2026?
A map of the landscape: wallet analyzers, leaderboards, on-chain de-anonymization, and market-data terminals. Where an independent skill-versus-luck read fits, and why it is the piece most tools skip.
Did Google ban prediction-market Chrome extensions?
Yes. Google's July 1, 2026 Chrome Web Store policy update prohibits extensions that "facilitate or enable real money transactions on predictive outcomes," with enforcement from August 1, 2026. Websites and mobile apps are outside the store's scope.
What is a prediction-market resolution-quality audit?
How to think about resolution quality on prediction markets. Convexly's own market-rating surfaces were frozen on 2026-09-05.
Is there a free Polymarket wallet tracker?
Check reported P&L, resolved positions and data coverage. Save a dated check in this browser and reopen it manually to compare. First check free without signup; more wallets free with an account.
Is there a Polymarket scanner that ranks the full cohort?
Not a live screen of Polymarket. The published board is a closed set of 50 addresses, rescored daily. The live piece is the free single-wallet lookup, plus a PnL-vs-Edge comparison view.
What are the best Polymarket wallets to study?
No list the evidence supports: the PnL leaderboard ranks luck as readily as skill, and Edge Score failed its forward test. How to read a candidate wallet's resolved record with its interval instead.
What are the best Polymarket wallets to copy trade?
The leaderboard is not a copy-trade shortlist. Most top wallets inherit one lucky bet, not a process, and entry edge is not money once you apply your own sizing. Check skill vs luck before you copy anyone.
Should I use a Polymarket copy trading bot?
Copying past returns does not establish an edge. Review the available record, entry prices and concentration before interpreting a wallet’s results. Convexly places no orders.
Is there a free Polymarket calibration tool?
The wallet analyzer includes calibration diagnostics when the available data support them. Read the data scope before comparing scores. First check free without signup; no private key.
What is a Brier score for prediction markets?
A Brier score is the mean squared error between stated probability and binary outcome. On the 8,656-wallet Polymarket cohort the median is 0.13; a score of 0.10 is better than about two thirds of it.
How do you distinguish skill from luck in trading PnL?
Fama-French (2010) bootstrap null: permute PnL across traders, compare observed Spearman to the permutation distribution. Convexly applied this at 10,000 permutations: p < 0.0001.
How do you measure forecasting calibration?
Three tools: Brier score, reliability diagrams binned by stated probability, and the Murphy (1973) decomposition into reliability + resolution + uncertainty.
How do position sizing diagnostics work on Polymarket?
Actual-fraction, Kelly-fraction, sizing-efficiency, and concentration risk score for any wallet. Under Hill alpha = 1.28 the Kelly number is a reference, not a target. Descriptive, not advice.
Who wins and who loses in prediction markets?
Read from the public record: most resolved Polymarket records cannot be separated from chance at retail sample sizes, and many large P&Ls are one-event concentration stories.
Is a Polymarket trader skilled or lucky?
Not from the P&L. The honest read is the realized entry edge with its bootstrap 95% interval against zero, a 30-resolved-position floor, and a concentration screen.
How do I check a Polymarket track record?
Start with a public Polymarket wallet address. Check reported P&L, resolved positions and coverage, then save a dated check to revisit.
What is a good win rate on Polymarket?
There is no good win rate in isolation: a favorites-only wallet at average entry 0.85 should win ~85% with no edge at all. The readable number is edge against price, with its interval.
Can you trust a Polymarket PnL screenshot?
A screenshot is a starting point. Ask for the public wallet address, then compare the reported P&L, resolved positions and data coverage. Reading a public wallet needs no permission.
How do you verify ownership of a Polymarket wallet?
By signing a message with the wallet, not by screenshots. No transaction, no gas, no private key shared. Reading a wallet needs no permission at all.
How many Polymarket traders are profitable?
No reliable public tally exists, and Convexly does not publish one. What the published record supports: a corrected screen cleared 178 of 3,871 wallets; the board's net-negative count is withheld because our own realized-PnL sign column for those rows was corrected on 2026-08-12.
Which Polymarket leaderboard should you trust?
PnL boards rank outcomes, not skill. On the 50 addresses we screened once in April 2026 for having made money, none cleared the FDR-corrected skill screen in the frozen 2026-06-09 scan.
Is there a Polymarket whale tracker worth acting on?
Tracking whales is easy; reading them is not. Before you act on one, check the realized entry edge against zero, the resolved-position count, and how much of the profit came from a single event.
How are Polymarket markets resolved?
Through UMA's optimistic oracle: a bonded outcome proposal, a challenge window, and disputes decided by a UMA token-holder vote. Scheduled close is not settlement time.
Looking for the full methodology paper? Read Edge Score Methodology V1 (17-page PDF with frozen validation scripts, Fama-French bootstrap null, and Hill tail-index diagnostics).
Several of these answers rest on Convexly taking no money from any trading venue. The structural reasons, stated as checkable facts, are at Independence.