Answers
Direct answers to common prediction-market and forecasting calibration questions, grounded in Convexly Research's published methodology and its frozen 8,656-wallet Polymarket cohort. Each page leads with a one-paragraph answer; supporting formulas, numbers, and citations follow.
Is there a free Polymarket calibration tool?
Yes. Convexly's wallet analyzer computes Brier, calibration curve, and Edge Score in 15 to 30 seconds. No signup, no private key.
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What is a Brier score for prediction markets?
A Brier score is the mean squared error between stated probability and binary outcome. On 8,656 Polymarket wallets, median is ~0.188; below 0.10 is elite.
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How do you distinguish skill from luck in trading PnL?
Fama-French (2010) bootstrap null: permute PnL across traders, compare observed Spearman to the permutation distribution. Convexly applied this at 10,000 permutations: p < 0.0001.
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How do you measure forecasting calibration?
Three tools: Brier score, reliability diagrams binned by stated probability, and the Murphy (1973) decomposition into reliability + resolution + uncertainty.
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How do position sizing diagnostics work on Polymarket?
Actual-fraction, Kelly-fraction, sizing-efficiency, and concentration risk score for any wallet. Under Hill alpha = 1.28, full Kelly is unsafe; half-Kelly is defensible.
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Looking for the full methodology paper? Read Edge Score Methodology V1 (13-page PDF with pre-registered validation experiments, Fama-French bootstrap null, and Hill tail-index diagnostics).