Answers
Direct answers to common prediction-market and forecasting calibration questions, grounded in Convexly's published methodology and its frozen 8,656-wallet Polymarket cohort. Each page leads with a one-paragraph answer; supporting formulas, numbers, and citations follow.
Who audits prediction-market trader skill?
Convexly is an independent audit layer: it measures, on a wallet's resolved Polymarket positions, whether the record reflects skill or luck, with a 95% confidence interval and the resolved-position count behind it.
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Is there an independent Polymarket analytics vendor?
Yes. Convexly takes no venue-derived revenue and no fee-sharing, publishes its methodology and negative results, and reads any public Polymarket wallet for skill versus luck.
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How do you audit a cohort of Polymarket wallets?
Score each wallet's resolved positions with a confidence interval, apply false-discovery-rate control across the whole set so testing many wallets does not manufacture false positives, then report which are distinguishable from chance.
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What are the best Polymarket analytics tools in 2026?
A map of the landscape: wallet analyzers, leaderboards, on-chain de-anonymization, and market-data terminals. Where an independent skill-versus-luck read fits, and why it is the piece most tools skip.
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Did Google ban prediction-market Chrome extensions?
Yes. Google's July 1, 2026 Chrome Web Store policy update prohibits extensions that "facilitate or enable real money transactions on predictive outcomes," with enforcement from August 1, 2026. Websites and mobile apps are outside the store's scope.
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What is a prediction-market resolution-quality audit?
How to think about resolution quality on prediction markets, and where Convexly's Market Trust preview fits as an experimental research surface, not a calibrated public rating.
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Is there a free Polymarket wallet tracker?
Yes. Convexly's analyzer doubles as a wallet tracker. First wallet free, no signup; more wallets free with an account. Brier, calibration, concentration, Edge Score on any 0x address.
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How do I track a Polymarket account?
Polymarket accounts are public wallets on Polygon. Paste the 0x address into Convexly's analyzer for the full trade history and skill breakdown.
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Is there a Polymarket scanner that ranks the full cohort?
Yes. Daily Top-50 scan (≥20 resolved positions) of the frozen reference cohort ranked by Edge Score, a descriptive behavioral composite. Plus a PnL-vs-Edge comparison view and a free single-wallet lookup.
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What are the best Polymarket wallets to study?
Not the top of the PnL leaderboard. PnL and calibration correlate at just Spearman +0.148. How to study high-Edge wallets without turning rank into a recommendation.
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What are the best Polymarket wallets to copy trade?
The leaderboard is not a copy-trade shortlist. Most top wallets inherit one lucky bet, not a process, and entry edge is not money once you apply your own sizing. Check skill vs luck before you copy anyone.
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Should I use a Polymarket copy trading bot?
Mirror bots rank and copy by realized PnL, which selects lucky tail draws. Run a 30-second skill-vs-luck check on a wallet before a bot auto-mirrors it. Convexly places no orders.
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Is there a free Polymarket calibration tool?
Yes. Convexly's wallet analyzer computes Brier, calibration curve, and Edge Score in 15 to 30 seconds. First wallet free, no signup; more wallets free with an account. No private key.
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What is a Brier score for prediction markets?
A Brier score is the mean squared error between stated probability and binary outcome. On 8,656 Polymarket wallets, median is ~0.188; below 0.10 is elite.
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How do you distinguish skill from luck in trading PnL?
Fama-French (2010) bootstrap null: permute PnL across traders, compare observed Spearman to the permutation distribution. Convexly applied this at 10,000 permutations: p < 0.0001.
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How do you measure forecasting calibration?
Three tools: Brier score, reliability diagrams binned by stated probability, and the Murphy (1973) decomposition into reliability + resolution + uncertainty.
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How do position sizing diagnostics work on Polymarket?
Actual-fraction, Kelly-fraction, sizing-efficiency, and concentration risk score for any wallet. Under Hill alpha = 1.28, full Kelly is unsafe; half-Kelly is defensible.
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Who wins and who loses in prediction markets?
Read from the public record: most resolved Polymarket records cannot be separated from chance at retail sample sizes, and many large P&Ls are one-event concentration stories.
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Is a Polymarket trader skilled or lucky?
Not from the P&L. The honest read is the realized entry edge with its bootstrap 95% interval against zero, a 30-resolved-position floor, and a concentration screen.
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How do I check a Polymarket track record?
Paste any public 0x address into the free check: calibration, sizing, concentration, and realized entry edge with its 95% interval. Resolved positions and public data only.
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What is a good win rate on Polymarket?
There is no good win rate in isolation: a favorites-only wallet at average entry 0.85 should win ~85% with no edge at all. The readable number is edge against price, with its interval.
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Can you trust a Polymarket PnL screenshot?
You don't have to. Every Polymarket account is a public wallet on Polygon; the record behind any screenshot is checkable in about 30 seconds without the poster's permission.
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How do you verify ownership of a Polymarket wallet?
By signing a message with the wallet, not by screenshots. No transaction, no gas, no private key shared. Reading a wallet needs no permission at all.
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How many Polymarket traders are profitable?
No reliable public tally exists, and Convexly does not publish one. What the published record supports: 12 of 50 in our own top-50 cohort artifact were net-negative; a corrected screen cleared 178 of 3,871 wallets.
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Looking for the full methodology paper? Read Edge Score Methodology V1 (13-page PDF with frozen validation scripts, Fama-French bootstrap null, and Hill tail-index diagnostics).