Independent market-price ratings.
Know whether a prediction-market price is safe to cite.
Start free: paste any Polymarket wallet and get its calibration, sizing, concentration, and Edge Score in about 30 seconds, no signup. Or run Market Trust on a market to see whether the price is strong enough to cite, with the caveat and receipt attached.
What do you want to decide?
Start with the thing you need to check.
Convexly turns public prediction-market records into a short answer, a caveat, and a receipt you can inspect.
How skilled is this wallet?
Paste any Polymarket wallet for calibration, sizing, concentration, and Edge Score in about 30 seconds. Free, no signup.
Check a wallet freeCan I cite this market price?
Run Market Trust to see whether a price is usable, caveated, discounted, or too thin to cite, with the caveat and receipt attached to the rating.
Audit a marketCan I trust Convexly itself?
Open the track record to see live evidence, pending gates, failed tests, and claim caveats before relying on the product.
Verify receiptsEvidence discipline
Trust the workflow, not the screenshot.
Methods freeze before promotion. Failed tests stay public. Every serious claim points back to the evidence ledger.
Why this exists
Prediction-market prices are easy to quote and hard to diligence.
Convexly is building the missing diligence layer: market-quality packets, participant-quality evidence, and reproducible receipts. The evidence comes from public market records, source-controlled methods, and audit-chain receipts, so serious users can inspect what produced a rating instead of accepting a black box.
One market, one verdict, one evidence trail.
The buyer-facing object is the packet: what the market says, whether the price is strong enough to cite, what caveats travel with it, and which receipt proves how the rating was produced.
Verdict
Use, use with caveats, discount, or do not cite.
Why it matters
A short reason a buyer can understand before reading methodology.
Caveats
Freshness, liquidity, participant evidence, integrity flags, and resolution risk.
Receipt
Method version, source labels, hash, and export path.
Methodology, with receipts
Scores and signals come with inspectable receipts.
Coefficients freeze before publication. Forward extensions get filed before analysis runs (filing index + per-test verdicts). Failed and null results stay visible.
Frozen-coefficient wallet skill ranking, calibration-weighted.
A wallet that is right when it claims confidence ranks higher than one that is right at random. Versions: V1 (2026-04-18) · V1.5 (negative-result paper: both primary tests failed at their ex-ante thresholds; published openly) · V1-M (cross-venue extension, 2026-04-22).
Related-market consistency check for Market Trust packets.
Convexly checks whether related markets contradict one another before a price is cited. The technical research page still preserves the Coherent Markets Engine name, daily archives, candidate outputs, and evidence-gated track record.
For institutions
Evidence-linked artifacts for serious diligence.
Market Trust packets, wallet verification, and API access package the same receipts behind the public product.
Sales-led, human-reviewed PDF audit on Convexly Research letterhead.
A scoped diligence artifact for teams reviewing a public Polymarket participant, market maker, or wallet-labeled workflow.
Talk to salesMarket-level ratings for whether odds are strong enough to cite, caveated, discounted, or too weak to rely on.
Coherence, liquidity, depth, participant quality, resolution reliability, manipulation-risk flags, and audit-chain evidence in one source-linked card. v0.2 is evidence-gated and explicitly experimental while the validation ledger matures.
View Market TrustProgrammatic access to Market Trust, participant-quality, and related-market evidence.
JSON-over-HTTP for approved public and pilot surfaces. Hashes and source labels are returned where the underlying artifact is reproducible, so buyers can separate public receipts from internal archives.
Read the docsWallet profit is noisy. It is supporting evidence, not the front door.
Across 8,656 Polymarket wallets, calibration (Brier) explains only +0.148 Spearman correlation with realized PnL. The top 1% by profit captured 36.2% of all signed gains. Convexly separates repeatable posture, conviction, and discipline from lucky screenshots; the three-pillar composite reaches out-of-fold Spearman +0.514(Fama-French bootstrap null p < 0.0001 on 10,000 permutations).
V1-M paper (cross-venue invariance)