The independent intelligence layer for prediction markets, built to test whether a market price is strong enough to cite.
See which Polymarket wallets have actually been right.
Paste any Polymarket wallet and get its calibration, sizing, concentration, and Edge Score in about 30 seconds. No signup. Edge Score is a composite of calibration, conviction, and discipline that describes a wallet's past record, not a forecast.
Free wallet check · no signup
Calibration, sizing, concentration, Edge Score against a frozen 8,656-wallet reference cohort. About 30 seconds.
Two questions. One trust layer.
Analyze a trader, or analyze a market.
Everything Convexly does answers one of two questions, on public prediction-market records, with a caveat and a receipt attached.
Traders: skilled, or just lucky?
Paste any Polymarket wallet for its leakage-free realized edge, calibration, sizing, and Edge Score in about 30 seconds. Free, no signup.
Check a wallet freeMarkets: can you trust the price?
Run Market Trust to see whether a price is usable, caveated, discounted, or too thin to cite, with the caveat and receipt attached to the rating.
Audit a marketAnd you can audit us, too.
Open the track record for live evidence, pending gates, failed tests, and claim caveats before you rely on any number we publish.
Verify receiptsReceipts, including the misses
We publish our own failed tests.
Most analytics tools show you only what works. We publish the misses too: Edge Score follow-up tests that missed the bar we set for them in advance, a 24-aggregator study where none beat the market, and the finding that calibration barely predicts profit. Every serious claim points back to a frozen method and a receipt you can open.
One market, one verdict, one evidence trail.
The buyer-facing object is the packet: what the market says, whether the price is strong enough to cite, what caveats travel with it, and which receipt proves how the rating was produced.
Verdict
Use, use with caveats, discount, or do not cite.
Why it matters
A short reason a buyer can understand before reading methodology.
Caveats
Freshness, liquidity, participant evidence, integrity flags, and resolution risk.
Receipt
Method version, source labels, hash, and export path.
Methodology, with receipts
Scores and signals come with inspectable receipts.
Coefficients freeze before publication. Forward extensions get filed before analysis runs (filing index + per-test verdicts). Failed and null results stay visible.
Frozen-coefficient wallet skill ranking, calibration-weighted.
A wallet that is right when it claims confidence ranks higher than one that is right at random. Versions: V1 (2026-04-18) · V1.5 (negative-result paper: both primary tests failed at their ex-ante thresholds; published openly) · V1-M (cross-venue extension, 2026-04-22).
Related-market consistency check for Market Trust packets.
Convexly checks whether related markets contradict one another before a price is cited. The technical research page still preserves the Coherent Markets Engine name, daily archives, candidate outputs, and evidence-gated track record.
For institutions
Evidence-linked artifacts for serious diligence.
Market Trust packets, wallet verification, and API access package the same receipts behind the public product.
Sales-led, human-reviewed PDF audit on Convexly Research letterhead.
A scoped diligence artifact for teams reviewing a public Polymarket participant, market maker, or wallet-labeled workflow.
Talk to salesMarket-level ratings for whether odds are strong enough to cite, caveated, discounted, or too weak to rely on.
Coherence, liquidity, depth, participant quality, resolution reliability, manipulation-risk flags, and audit-chain evidence in one source-linked card. v0.2 is evidence-gated and explicitly experimental while the validation ledger matures.
View Market TrustProgrammatic access to Market Trust, participant-quality, and related-market evidence.
JSON-over-HTTP for approved public and pilot surfaces. Hashes and source labels are returned where the underlying artifact is reproducible, so buyers can separate public receipts from internal archives.
Read the docsWallet profit is noisy. It is supporting evidence, not the front door.
Across 8,656 Polymarket wallets, the top 1% by profit captured 36.2% of all signed gains, yet raw profit barely tracks whether a wallet was actually well-calibrated. Calibration explains almost none of the variation in realized profit across this cohort, a result we published in full. Convexly separates repeatable posture, conviction, and discipline from lucky screenshots: a descriptive read of the past record, not a forecast. The full method and the underlying statistics, with confidence intervals, are in the V1-M paper.
V1-M paper (cross-venue invariance)