Free · No signup · 15-30 seconds
Paste a Polymarket wallet.
See the skill behind the PnL.
Brier score, calibration curve, Edge Score percentile, and concentration risk. Scored against 8,656 real Polymarket wallets. Methodology open.
Top Forecasters
(lowest Brier wins)Take the quiz to claim your spot. See full rankings →
Free · 2 minutes · No signup required
No wallet to paste? Test your calibration instead.
Ten forecasting questions, a Brier score at the end, and a percentile rank against every other person who has taken the quiz. Two minutes. Works before any Polymarket wallet ever exists.
No signup. Public data only. Free to share.
Daily Calibration Question
Companies with more diverse executive teams are statistically more likely to outperform their industry peers on profitability
One question per day. Take the full 10-question quiz for your complete calibration score.
P&L tells you what happened. Brier tells you why.
Polymarket shows your profit. Convexly shows your calibration. A winning trader with a bad Brier score is lucky, not skilled. Know the difference before the variance catches up.
How it works
Connect a wallet. Markets resolve. Your calibration updates. The whole loop runs on public data with no manual effort.
Connect your wallet or upload your trades
Paste your Polymarket wallet address or upload a Kalshi CSV export. Every trade becomes a decision with probability and payoff pre-filled. 30 seconds, no manual entry, no API keys stored.
Markets settle. Decisions auto-resolve.
When a Polymarket or Kalshi market closes, Convexly checks the outcome and updates your decision. Your Brier score moves without you touching anything.
See where you're skilled. Fix where you're not.
Your dashboard shows your Brier score, calibration curve, skill tier, and what resolved since your last visit. Each session, you learn something about your forecasting.
Free to start. No credit card.
Connect your Polymarket wallet or upload a Kalshi CSV. See your Brier score. Upgrade to Lite ($19/mo) for multi-venue tracking and weekly auto-sync, or Pro ($49/mo) for simulations, AI coaching, and reference-class benchmarks.
Free
Try the full calibration loop with one venue
- Connect one venue: Polymarket wallet or Kalshi CSV
- Up to 100 decisions
- Manual resolution sync (24h cooldown)
- Full Brier score + skill tier + trend dashboard
- Public Polymarket wallet analyzer (no signup)
- Calibration quiz and public leaderboard
Want multi-venue tracking + weekly auto-sync?
Compare plans (Lite, Pro, Team)Frequently Asked Questions
Everything you need to know about Convexly
What is Convexly?
Convexly is the calibration scoreboard for prediction market traders. Connect your Polymarket wallet or import your Kalshi trades via CSV and get one Brier score across both. You see if your P&L is actual forecasting skill or just variance from sizing. Works for anyone logging probabilistic decisions, but prediction market traders are the primary wedge.
How is this different from Polymarket's own stats or a spreadsheet?
Polymarket shows you P&L but not calibration. A winning trader can still be badly calibrated; they just size bets well. Convexly calculates Brier scores, calibration curves by confidence bucket, and skill tiers. Polymarket is connected by wallet address today and Kalshi trades import by CSV with auto-resolution via Kalshi's public settlement API. Manifold is on the roadmap. That's the skill-vs-luck signal one venue's leaderboard can't give you.
What's a Brier Score?
A Brier Score measures how close your probability estimates are to actual outcomes. Lower is better: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is chance level. If you predict "70% likely" and it happens, that's good calibration. Most people score between 0.20 and 0.30.
Do I need to use dollar amounts for decisions?
No! You can use any scale that makes sense. For career, health, or personal decisions, we provide an impact scale from -10 (worst) to +10 (best). All our analytics work on any numeric scale. The math is the same.
What happens after I log a decision?
When the outcome is known, you resolve the decision (success or failure). Convexly then calculates your Brier Score, updates your calibration curve, and tracks your accuracy trend. The more decisions you resolve, the clearer your forecasting patterns become.
Is my data private?
Yes. All decisions are private by default and protected by row-level security. You can optionally enable a public profile to share your calibration stats, but your actual decision details are never exposed.
Can Convexly help me make decisions?
Yes! Use the "Help Me Decide" advisor when logging a new decision. Our AI guides you through clarifying questions, analyzes tradeoffs, and structures your decision into a probabilistic model, all through a natural conversation.
Is there a free plan?
Yes. The free tier includes up to 100 decisions, calibration tracking, and all core analytics. Pro unlocks unlimited decisions, AI coaching, simulations, and team features.
Do you offer team or enterprise plans?
Yes. We offer team plans with shared dashboards, team calibration, and role-based access, as well as custom enterprise plans. Email support@convexly.app and we'll set you up with the right plan for your organization.
Is your P&L skill or variance?
2,000+ people have taken the calibration quiz. 44% were overconfident. Paste your Polymarket wallet to find out if your real trades are any different.
No signup required for either. Public data only.