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Positive-PnL Polymarket wallets ranked by Edge Score V3b, a descriptive behavioral composite of calibration, conviction, and discipline. It describes the resolved record, not a forecast of future returns. Paste your wallet at the analyzer to compare against the cohort.

Updated todayRanked from a frozen 50-wallet fit; 38 currently clear the positive-PnL gate. Next refresh 06:00 UTC.
Edge Score V3b (snapshot 2026-06-30) · descriptive behavioral composite

Wallets ranked

38

clear the positive-PnL gate

Top Edge Score

98.4

Median Edge Score

56.6

Reference cohort

50

frozen fit

Showing 25 wallets with 30+ resolved positions. Calibration stabilizes around 30 resolved positions per the V1 methodology paper, so this view drops the noisier tail. 13 smaller-sample wallets are hidden by this filter.

Venue footprint snapshot:Polymarket live 1,000

Leaderboard caveat

Leaderboard rank explains why a wallet scored highly in the historical cohort. It is not a recommendation to mirror trades or assume future wallet performance.

How to read this board. Edge Score is a descriptive behavioral composite of how a wallet positioned on its resolved public history (calibration, conviction, and discipline). It describes the past record; out-of-sample forward-skill validation is still pending, so a rank is not a forecast of future returns.

Each row also carries a skill read (skilled / not separable from luck / thin sample / too concentrated) with the wallet's realized-edge sign and 95% interval, so a high Edge Score never stands alone. A "too concentrated" marker is a flag on the read, not a verdict. The board Edge Score is a snapshot from 2026-06-30; a live analyzer read may differ as new positions resolve, so a board score and a live analyzer score read as snapshot-vs-live, not a contradiction.

This board is shown for wallets with positive realized PnL. 12 cohort wallets are held back from the public view because realized PnL is not positive or is unavailable.

Skilled Wallet #1politics· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 77 positions · $14.3K PnL

Realized edge -8.5pp (95% CI [-16.4, -0.4])

88

Edge · 2026-06-30

Skilled Wallet #2politics· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 36 positions · $2.7M PnL

Realized edge +12.2pp (95% CI [-5.3, +26.7])

84

Edge · 2026-06-30

Skilled Wallet #3politics· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 37 positions · $9.0K PnL

Realized edge +0.8pp (95% CI [-4.3, +5.8])

84

Edge · 2026-06-30

4
Skilled Wallet #4crypto· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 30 positions · $93.8K PnL

Realized edge -1.9pp (95% CI [-13.5, +10.0])

81

Edge · 2026-06-30

5
Skilled Wallet #5tech· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 49 positions · $27.6K PnL

Realized edge -2.6pp (95% CI [-8.9, +3.3])

76

Edge · 2026-06-30

6
Skilled Wallet #6Usable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 68 positions · $53.6K PnL

Realized edge +0.1pp (95% CI [-10.2, +11.1])

74

Edge · 2026-06-30

7
Skilled Wallet #7crypto· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 31 positions · $19.2K PnL

Realized edge +2.6pp (95% CI [-14.1, +19.1])

72

Edge · 2026-06-30

8
Skilled Wallet #8politics· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 34 positions · $55.9K PnL

Realized edge -2.9pp (95% CI [-13.5, +5.9])

68

Edge · 2026-06-30

9
Skilled Wallet #9Usable sampleNot separable from luck

0x••••…•••• · 34 positions · $32.2K PnL

Realized edge +0.4pp (95% CI [-14.7, +16.2])

60

Edge · 2026-06-30

10
Skilled Wallet #10politics· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 61 positions · $476.9K PnL

Realized edge +0.0pp (95% CI [-11.2, +11.2])

58

Edge · 2026-06-30

11
Skilled Wallet #11crypto· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 37 positions · $95.2K PnL

Realized edge +1.7pp (95% CI [-11.7, +14.9])

57

Edge · 2026-06-30

12
Skilled Wallet #12Usable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 37 positions · $139.8K PnL

Realized edge +2.4pp (95% CI [-8.1, +12.8])

55

Edge · 2026-06-30

13
Skilled Wallet #13geopolitics· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 70 positions · $145.4K PnL

Realized edge +10.2pp (95% CI [-1.5, +21.2])

55

Edge · 2026-06-30

14
Skilled Wallet #14tech· 2vUsable sampleNot separable from luck

0x••••…•••• · 30 positions · $335.2K PnL

Realized edge +11.3pp (95% CI [-2.7, +25.2])

49

Edge · 2026-06-30

15
Skilled Wallet #15politics· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 49 positions · $146.6K PnL

Realized edge +1.1pp (95% CI [-6.2, +8.1])

48

Edge · 2026-06-30

16
Skilled Wallet #16politics· 2vUsable sampleNot separable from luck

0x••••…•••• · 41 positions · $51.8K PnL

Realized edge +2.6pp (95% CI [-9.6, +14.5])

47

Edge · 2026-06-30

17
Skilled Wallet #17crypto· 2vUsable sampleNot separable from luck

0x••••…•••• · 36 positions · $65.6K PnL

Realized edge +1.7pp (95% CI [-7.4, +11.1])

43

Edge · 2026-06-30

18
Skilled Wallet #18politics· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 71 positions · $29.0K PnL

Realized edge +3.8pp (95% CI [-3.5, +11.4])

37

Edge · 2026-06-30

19
Skilled Wallet #19crypto· 2vStrong sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 131 positions · $951.3K PnL

Realized edge -0.5pp (95% CI [-6.5, +5.0])

33

Edge · 2026-06-30

20
Skilled Wallet #20crypto· 2vStrong sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 221 positions · $1.6M PnL

Realized edge -2.4pp (95% CI [-7.0, +2.3])

29

Edge · 2026-06-30

21
Skilled Wallet #21geopolitics· 2vUsable sampleNot separable from luck

0x••••…•••• · 79 positions · $487.2K PnL

Realized edge +0.5pp (95% CI [-6.8, +8.3])

27

Edge · 2026-06-30

22
Skilled Wallet #22sports· 2vUsable sampleNot separable from luck

0x••••…•••• · 83 positions · $83.6K PnL

Realized edge -1.3pp (95% CI [-10.6, +8.1])

23

Edge · 2026-06-30

23
Skilled Wallet #23politics· 2vStrong sampleNot separable from luck

0x••••…•••• · 123 positions · $131.6K PnL

Realized edge -2.3pp (95% CI [-7.9, +3.9])

15

Edge · 2026-06-30

24
Skilled Wallet #24geopolitics· 2vStrong sampleNot separable from luck

0x••••…•••• · 175 positions · $247.0K PnL

Realized edge +2.5pp (95% CI [-3.0, +7.9])

8

Edge · 2026-06-30

25
Skilled Wallet #25tech· 2vStrong sampleNot separable from luck

0x••••…•••• · 111 positions · $172.9K PnL

Realized edge -0.5pp (95% CI [-4.3, +3.1])

6

Edge · 2026-06-30

Edge Score vs same-window PnL (in-sample diagnostic)

Monthly rolling rank correlation between Edge Score V3b and signed-log PnL computed on the SAME in-window positions. This is an in-sample contemporaneous diagnostic, not a forward test: the score and the realized PnL share the same positions and the dominant input (conviction) is PnL-derived, so it overstates predictive skill. The honest forward result is the ex-ante per-wallet temporal holdout (out-of-sample Spearman +0.11, 95% CI [0.05, 0.18], which did not clear the +0.30 threshold it was filed against). Brier-only baseline shown for contrast.

median ρ = 0.375

26 monthly windows

0.00.20.40.6Oct 25Dec 25Mar 26
Edge Score V3b ρBrier-only baseline

Edge Score distribution

How the published cohort distributes across the 0-100 scale. Median + p25/p75 marked inline.

median = 55.9

n = 50

0-10: 2 wallets (4%)10-20: 2 wallets (4%)20-30: 3 wallets (6%)30-40: 3 wallets (6%)40-50: 12 wallets (24%)50-60: 8 wallets (16%)60-70: 5 wallets (10%)70-80: 5 wallets (10%)80-90: 6 wallets (12%)90-100: 4 wallets (8%)0255075100
Wallets per binMedianp25-p75 band

Watch up to 10 rated wallets.

Researcher gives you a Monday digest of score movement, concentration drift, and new-position context for wallets you choose to monitor.