Market Trust

A diligence packet that tells you whether a market price is strong enough to cite.

Every market gets a plain-English verdict: use, use with caveats, discount, or do not cite, with the caveat and the receipt attached. Participant quality, coherence, source freshness, and audit hashes are the supporting evidence.

Open Market TrustFor institutions: scope a pilot
Polymarket card / preview
illustrative example

Market

Will this market price be strong enough to use in a memo?

Use with caveatsEvidence confidence / medium

Why

Liquidity and freshness are reviewable, but participant evidence and outcome validation still travel as caveats.

Caveat

Cite the market as directional evidence, not as an authoritative probability.

Checks

Freshness, liquidity, depth, participant quality, resolution risk, integrity flags, and related-market coherence.

Receipt

Method version, source labels, validation state, row hash, and replay path stay attached.

This is the packet format. Most live prediction-market prices are not yet citable: Market Trust grades each one (use, use with caveats, discount, or do not cite) and shows why. It stays an experimental preview until enough markets resolve to validate the scores. Every verdict and its caveats are public; the full diligence packet for a positive verdict, with its exports, is a Researcher feature, while discount / do-not-cite packets and one sample positive packet stay free. Open the live flagship for the current top-graded card.
Open today's top-graded card
1

Start with the market price someone wants to cite.

2

Read the verdict before the methodology.

3

Carry the caveat with the number.

4

Open the audit chain when the claim matters.

What the packet checks

Seven checks become one buyer-facing verdict.

A user should not have to choose between tools. Market Trust collects the evidence and translates it into a verdict, caveat, and receipt.

Participant quality

Supporting evidence

Are public participants useful evidence for the market price?

Edge Score stays as the technical method, but the packet uses it as participant-quality evidence, not a trade-following promise.

Check participant evidence

Coherence check

Supporting evidence

Do related markets contradict this price?

Related-market consistency becomes one Market Trust input. The full signal ledger remains available for technical users and track-record review.

Open technical preview

Receipts and exports

Proof layer

Can a team verify how Convexly reached the answer?

Receipts, methodology versions, claim boundaries, and exports that make a rating usable in research, compliance review, or enterprise diligence.

Verify receipts