Market Trust
One diligence packet for one question: can I cite this market price?
Convexly is narrowing around Market Trust: a plain-English evidence packet that tells a professional team whether a prediction-market price is strong enough to use in real work. Participant quality, coherence checks, source freshness, and receipts feed that answer; they are supporting evidence, not separate promises.
Market
Will this market price be strong enough to use in a memo?
Why
Liquidity and freshness are reviewable, but participant evidence and outcome validation still travel as caveats.
Caveat
Cite the market as directional evidence, not as an authoritative probability.
Checks
Freshness, liquidity, depth, participant quality, resolution risk, integrity flags, and related-market coherence.
Receipt
Method version, source labels, validation state, row hash, and replay path stay attached.
Start with the market price someone wants to cite.
Read the verdict before the methodology.
Carry the caveat with the number.
Open the audit chain when the claim matters.
What the packet checks
Seven checks become one buyer-facing verdict.
A user should not have to choose between tools. Market Trust collects the evidence and translates it into a verdict, caveat, and receipt.
Participant quality
Supporting evidence
Are public participants useful evidence for the market price?
Edge Score stays as the technical method, but the packet uses it as participant-quality evidence, not a trade-following promise.
Check participant evidenceCoherence check
Supporting evidence
Do related markets contradict this price?
Related-market consistency becomes one Market Trust input. The full signal ledger remains available for technical users and track-record review.
Open technical previewReceipts and exports
Proof layer
Can a team verify how Convexly reached the answer?
Receipts, methodology versions, claim boundaries, and exports that make a rating usable in research, compliance review, or enterprise diligence.
Verify receipts