Polymarket Scanner

Convexly's Polymarket scanner ranks the full 8,656-wallet reference cohort by Edge Score V3b, a pre-registered skill composite, and refreshes every day at 06:00 UTC. The public scanner surfaces the top 100 skill-ranked wallets at convexly.app/leaderboard, the top 20 by PnL vs top 20 by skill side by side at convexly.app/truth-leaderboard, and a free single-wallet lookup for any 0x address at the Polymarket wallet analyzer. No signup, no private key, no wallet signature.

What the scanner ranks and why

Polymarket's own leaderboard ranks by realized PnL, which is the natural thing to rank by and which our V1 methodology paper demonstrates is a noisy proxy for forward skill. The Spearman rank correlation between calibration (Brier) and realized PnL on the full 8,656- wallet cohort is +0.148. The Spearman rank correlation between Edge Score V3b and signed log PnL, measured out-of-fold with 10,000-shuffle Fama-French permutation null, is +0.514 (p less than 0.0001). The scanner uses the latter.

The three pillars that drive the scan

• Posture (z-scored negation of skill_brier): captures wallets whose profit is earned despite imprecise calibration. Polymarket V1 fitted coefficient +0.79.
• Conviction (z-scored log concentration): captures portfolio concentration in a single dominant event. Polymarket V1 fitted coefficient +2.72, the dominant pillar.
• Discipline (z-scored negative log position count): captures fewer, larger resolved positions. Polymarket V1 fitted coefficient minus 1.15.

Coefficients are re-estimated per venue. Manifold coefficients diverge meaningfully, including a sign flip on discipline, per the V1-M extension paper.

How often the scanner refreshes

The cohort-wide skill scan runs daily at 06:00 UTC through a GitHub Actions cron that rebuilds the top-100 JSON payload and redeploys the static leaderboard pages. Individual wallet lookups through the single-wallet analyzer are live against the Polymarket Data API with a 24-hour cache on each (wallet, date) key. Cohort membership itself is frozen as of 2026-04-15 for reproducibility of the V1 results; out-of-cohort 0x addresses are still analyzable on demand, but their scores do not yet shift the reference distribution.

Scanner vs single-wallet analyzer

The scanner is the cohort-wide leaderboard. The Polymarket wallet analyzer is the single-wallet lookup. Same underlying methodology. Same coefficients. Different entry point. Most traders who search “Polymarket scanner” actually want one of three things: the daily top-100 leaderboard (public), the Truth Leaderboard comparison view (public), or an ad-hoc lookup for a specific 0x address (public, free, no signup).

Institutional access to the full scan

API access to the full 8,656-wallet scan with per-pillar scores, wallet labels, and historical snapshots back to the 2026-04-15 cohort freeze is available through the institutional tier. Starts at $5,000 per month with annual contract. See convexly.app/enterprise for details, or read the open methodology at convexly.app/research/edge-score-methodology-v1.