Polymarket Wallet Tracker: Free First Check

Convexly's Polymarket Wallet Analyzer is the wallet tracker most traders are looking for when they search “Polymarket wallet tracker”. Your first wallet is free and needs no signup; tracking more wallets is free with an account. Paste any public 0x address at convexly.app/tools/polymarket-wallet-analyzer and get Brier score, calibration curve, concentration risk, and Edge Score percentile against a frozen reference cohort of Polymarket wallets. Results return in 15 to 30 seconds. Public data only. No private key, no signature, no wallet connection.

How to track a Polymarket wallet in four steps

Copy the public 0x address from the wallet's Polymarket profile page (any 40-character hexadecimal string starting with 0x).
Open the Polymarket wallet analyzer and paste the address into the input field.
Read the calibration and sizing breakdown that returns in 15 to 30 seconds: Brier, category calibration, concentration share, and the Edge Score pillars.
Compare the result against the cohort distribution surfaced on the PnL vs Edge Score, which ranks the top 20 wallets by PnL side by side with the top 20 by Edge Score.

What the tracker returns

Brier score over every resolved position, aggregated across orderbook fills at the dollar-weighted entry price so the number measures actual predictions rather than execution chunking.
Calibration curve binned by stated probability with observed win rate per bucket. Divergence above the diagonal indicates overconfidence; below it indicates underconfidence.
Concentration share showing the fraction of realized PnL sitting in the wallet's single largest event. High concentration means the track record is hostage to one market.
Edge Score percentile (0 to 100) against the frozen reference cohort, broken out by the three fitted pillars: posture (baseline-adjusted calibration), conviction (concentration), and discipline (resolved-position count).
Category calibration split per market category (politics, sports, crypto, and so on), so you can see where the wallet is sharp and where it is not.
Top winning positions by P&L and top sizing misfires ranked by deviation from fractional Kelly.

Tracking a Polymarket account is the same lookup

Polymarket is a non-custodial protocol on Polygon, and every account is a wallet address on the Polygon chain. Every bet, every fill, every resolution is written on-chain and served through the Polymarket Data API, so an account tracker and a wallet tracker are one tool. To find an account's address, open polymarket.com, search for the username or open the profile page (a profile lives at polymarket.com/profile/ followed by its username), and copy the 0x address from the profile header. No Polymarket login or account is required on your side.

Tracking vs mirroring (they are not the same)

A tracker measures how skilled a wallet is at the bets it has made. A trade-following tool surfaces what a wallet is doing right now. These two goals require different inputs and produce different outputs, and Convexly is the former: it does not recommend wallets to mirror. The PnL vs Edge Score view ranks the same published board two ways side by side, and the columns disagree on roughly half the entries.

Why calibration alone is not enough to rank a wallet

The intuitive version of tracking skill on Polymarket is “who has the best calibration”. In our 8,656- wallet V1 cohort that ranking correlates with realized PnL at Spearman +0.148. Weak. In the original V3b fit the composite correlated out-of-fold with signed log PnL at Spearman +0.514 with Fama-French permutation p less than 0.0001 on 10,000 shuffles; the constants were refit on 2026-07-13, so that fit statistic describes the original fit, not current scores (dated method-change note at convexly.app/methodology). In its one out-of-sample forward test, a pre-set per-wallet temporal holdout, the frozen composite held a Spearman of +0.11 (95% CI [0.05, 0.18]) with forward PnL, below the +0.30 bar set in advance; treat Edge Score as a descriptive behavioral profile, not a validated skill ranking. The full derivation is in the Edge Score Methodology V1 paper.

Can I track wallets that are not my own?

Yes. Polymarket wallet addresses are public on the Polygon chain. Paste any 0x address you know and the analyzer will return the same breakdown. Your first wallet is free with no signup; analyzing additional wallets is free with an account. The landing page ships with a preset demo on a public sample wallet so you can see a full tracker output before pasting your own.

Privacy and what Convexly stores

Analyses are cached server-side for 24 hours so a repeat lookup does not hit the Polymarket API twice. The 0x address itself is not linked to any user account, not published, and not used for marketing. Aggregated cohort statistics that feed the reference distribution are the only long-term derived data, and they are held internally rather than published: no public bundle has ever carried the 8,656-wallet Polymarket reference cohort, and the one Polymarket per-wallet artifact that was public was withdrawn on 2026-08-10. The method itself is published in full at the V1 paper page, which carries its own dated correction on this point.