Polymarket Wallet Tracker

Convexly's Polymarket Wallet Analyzer is the free, no-signup wallet tracker most traders are looking for when they search “Polymarket wallet tracker”. Paste any public 0x address at convexly.app/tools/polymarket-wallet-analyzer and get Brier score, calibration curve, concentration risk, and Edge Score percentile against a frozen reference cohort of 8,656 Polymarket wallets. Results return in 15 to 30 seconds. Public data only. No private key, no signature, no wallet connection.

How to track a Polymarket wallet in four steps

1. Copy the public 0x address from the wallet's Polymarket profile page (any 40-character hexadecimal string starting with 0x).
2. Open the Polymarket wallet analyzer and paste the address into the input field.
3. Read the calibration and sizing breakdown that returns in 15 to 30 seconds: Brier, category calibration, concentration share, and the Edge Score pillars.
4. Compare the result against the cohort distribution surfaced on the Truth Leaderboard, which ranks the top 20 wallets by PnL side by side with the top 20 by Edge Score.

What the tracker returns

• Brier score over every resolved position, volume-weighted across orderbook fills so the number measures actual predictions rather than execution chunking.
• Calibration curve binned by stated probability with observed win rate per bucket. Divergence above the diagonal indicates overconfidence; below it indicates underconfidence.
• Concentration share showing the fraction of realized PnL sitting in the wallet's single largest event. High concentration means the track record is hostage to one market.
• Edge Score percentile (0 to 100) against the 8,656-wallet reference cohort, broken out by the three fitted pillars: posture (baseline-adjusted calibration), conviction (concentration), and discipline (resolved-position count).
• Top winning positions by P&L and top sizing misfires ranked by deviation from fractional Kelly.

Why calibration alone is not enough to rank a wallet

The intuitive version of tracking skill on Polymarket is “who has the best calibration”. In our 8,656- wallet V1 cohort that ranking correlates with realized PnL at Spearman +0.148. Weak. The composite Edge Score V3b correlates out-of-fold with signed log PnL at Spearman +0.514 with Fama-French permutation p less than 0.0001 on 10,000 shuffles. That is an order of magnitude cleaner ranking of forward skill than raw calibration or raw PnL alone. The full derivation is in the Edge Score Methodology V1 paper.

Can I track wallets that are not my own?

Yes. Polymarket wallet addresses are public on the Polygon chain. Paste any 0x address you know and the analyzer will return the same breakdown. The landing page ships with a preset demo on a well-known whale wallet (Theo4, ranked #1 by all-time realized PnL) so you can see a full tracker output before pasting your own.