Polymarket Wallet Tracker

Convexly's Polymarket Wallet Analyzer is the wallet tracker most traders are looking for when they search “Polymarket wallet tracker”. Your first wallet is free and needs no signup; tracking more wallets is free with an account. Paste any public 0x address at convexly.app/tools/polymarket-wallet-analyzer and get Brier score, calibration curve, concentration risk, and Edge Score percentile against a frozen reference cohort of Polymarket wallets. Results return in 15 to 30 seconds. Public data only. No private key, no signature, no wallet connection.

How to track a Polymarket wallet in four steps

1. Copy the public 0x address from the wallet's Polymarket profile page (any 40-character hexadecimal string starting with 0x).
2. Open the Polymarket wallet analyzer and paste the address into the input field.
3. Read the calibration and sizing breakdown that returns in 15 to 30 seconds: Brier, category calibration, concentration share, and the Edge Score pillars.
4. Compare the result against the cohort distribution surfaced on the PnL vs Edge Score, which ranks the top 20 wallets by PnL side by side with the top 20 by Edge Score.

What the tracker returns

• Brier score over every resolved position, volume-weighted across orderbook fills so the number measures actual predictions rather than execution chunking.
• Calibration curve binned by stated probability with observed win rate per bucket. Divergence above the diagonal indicates overconfidence; below it indicates underconfidence.
• Concentration share showing the fraction of realized PnL sitting in the wallet's single largest event. High concentration means the track record is hostage to one market.
• Edge Score percentile (0 to 100) against the frozen reference cohort, broken out by the three fitted pillars: posture (baseline-adjusted calibration), conviction (concentration), and discipline (resolved-position count).
• Top winning positions by P&L and top sizing misfires ranked by deviation from fractional Kelly.

Why calibration alone is not enough to rank a wallet

The intuitive version of tracking skill on Polymarket is “who has the best calibration”. In our 8,656- wallet V1 cohort that ranking correlates with realized PnL at Spearman +0.148. Weak. In the original V3b fit the composite correlated out-of-fold with signed log PnL at Spearman +0.514 with Fama-French permutation p less than 0.0001 on 10,000 shuffles; the constants were refit on 2026-07-13, so that fit statistic describes the original fit, not current scores (dated method-change note at convexly.app/methodology). In its one out-of-sample forward test, a pre-set per-wallet temporal holdout, the frozen composite held a Spearman of +0.11 (95% CI [0.05, 0.18]) with forward PnL, below the +0.30 bar set in advance; treat Edge Score as a descriptive behavioral profile, not a validated skill ranking. The full derivation is in the Edge Score Methodology V1 paper.

Can I track wallets that are not my own?

Yes. Polymarket wallet addresses are public on the Polygon chain. Paste any 0x address you know and the analyzer will return the same breakdown. Your first wallet is free with no signup; analyzing additional wallets is free with an account. The landing page ships with a preset demo on a public sample wallet so you can see a full tracker output before pasting your own.