Check a Polymarket Track Record

Paste any public 0x address into the free check and read its resolved record: calibration, sizing, concentration, and the realized entry edge with a bootstrap 95% interval against zero. No signup, no private key, no wallet signature; the check reads public data only. Open the Polymarket wallet analyzer or paste an address below.

What the check reads

Resolved positions only, from public data. Polymarket accounts are public wallets on Polygon, so every entry price, size, and outcome is readable from the Polymarket Data API and the chain without the owner's authorization. Open positions do not enter the verdict; a record is read only on what has actually resolved. The address you paste is not linked to any user account and is not published; analyses are cached server-side for 24 hours, and anonymous lookups are rate-limited to three per five minutes per IP.

What it returns

• Calibration. Brier score over every resolved position plus a calibration curve of stated probability against observed win rate, split by category.
• Sizing. Actual stake fraction compared against fractional Kelly, with the largest over- and under-sizing misfires listed.
• Concentration. The share of the net result sitting in the single largest event. At or above 60%, the record is flagged as too concentrated to read, and the flag overrides any flattering point estimate.
• Realized entry edge with its interval. The headline read: how much more often the wallet's entries resolved true than the price it paid implied, with a bootstrap 95% interval against zero and the resolved-position count. Below 30 resolved positions, no verdict renders; the honest output is “too few resolved trades to read”. How to interpret this read is covered at is a Polymarket trader skilled or lucky.

What it does not do

• No forward predictions. The check reads the resolved past; a past read is not a forecast.
• No buy or sell signals, and no recommendations of wallets to follow or mirror.
• No advice. The output is diagnostics on a public record, full stop.
• No verdict on thin records. Below the 30-position floor, or above the 60% concentration flag, the check says it cannot read the record rather than guessing. Most records honestly read “cannot tell”; context on who actually profits is at who wins and who loses in prediction markets.

Free, and what an account adds

The analyzer is free with no signup. A free account adds one thing: you can watch 1 wallet and receive its Monday Edge Score delta digest by email. The analyzer also shows an Edge Score V3b percentile against the frozen 8,656-wallet reference cohort; Edge Score V3b is a descriptive in-sample composite whose only out-of-sample forward test held a +0.11 rank correlation (95% CI 0.05 to 0.18) against future PnL and did not clear the pre-set +0.30 bar, so read both the percentile and the digest as descriptions of the past record, not forecasts. The skill-or-luck read stays with the realized edge and its interval.

Diagnostics on public on-chain records, not investment advice; a past read is not a forecast.