Best Polymarket Wallets to Copy-Trade

The best Polymarket wallets to copy-trade are not the top of the realized PnL leaderboard. They are the top of the Edge Score leaderboard, where skill and discipline show forward persistence. Across the full 8,656-wallet Polymarket cohort, calibration and realized PnL correlate at just Spearman +0.148. Edge Score V3b, a pre-registered composite of posture, conviction, and discipline, correlates with signed log PnL at out-of-fold Spearman +0.514 (Fama- French permutation p less than 0.0001 on 10,000 shuffles). The full methodology is open at convexly.app/research/edge-score-methodology-v1.

Why the PnL leaderboard is a bad copy-trade filter

Polymarket ranks wallets by realized PnL. That is the natural thing to rank by and it is the wrong filter for copy-trading, for three reasons that compound.

First, a single concentrated bet can produce a full career of PnL for a disciplined whale. If the trade has already resolved, the copy-trader buys the wallet after the edge is gone. If the trade has not resolved, the copy-trader is buying one event, not a skillset.

Second, realized PnL is conditional on survivorship. Wallets that took concentrated risks and lost are not at the top of the leaderboard. The leaderboard selects for the winning tail of a variance process. A copy- trader who follows the winning tail today is not guaranteed to be on the winning tail tomorrow.

Third, Hill alpha on per-wallet PnL in our V1 cohort is 1.28 (95% bootstrap CI 1.20, 1.36). That is meaningfully below equities at ~3.5 and borderline on whether even the population mean of per-wallet PnL is well-defined. Rank-based filters are robust to this tail shape. Point estimates of “top wallets by PnL” are not.

What Edge Score filters for

Edge Score V3b combines three z-scored pillars fit against signed log PnL on the frozen 2026-04-15 cohort:

• Posture: the wallet's skill-Brier (Brier score net of baseline-frequency naive prediction). Positive posture rewards wallets that earn profit while being calibrated above their own baseline.
• Conviction: log of single-event concentration share. High conviction means most of the PnL sits in one event, which the fitted coefficient (+2.72) rewards on Polymarket V1 but should be treated with caution for copy-trading.
• Discipline: negative log of resolved position count. The fitted coefficient is minus 1.15 on Polymarket V1 (more resolved positions predicts lower signed log PnL on the survivorship-selected cohort) but positive on Manifold play-money (per V1-M). Interpret per venue.

How to screen for a copy-tradeable profile

Three filters, applied in order, to any candidate 0x address:

1. Edge Score percentile above 80. Top 20% against the 8,656-wallet cohort.
2. Balanced pillar breakdown. A wallet driven entirely by conviction is a one- event track record. Prefer a profile where posture and discipline contribute meaningfully alongside conviction.
3. Concentration share below 0.40. The single-largest-event PnL share. Above 0.80 is effectively a one-bet wallet; under 0.40 implies replicable process.

A wallet that clears all three filters is a reasonable starting candidate for further research. None of this is financial advice, and past skill does not guarantee forward returns, especially on a venue where Hill alpha sits near 1.

Does Convexly publish a copy-trade list?

No. We publish the methodology, the coefficients, the cohort snapshot, and the ranking itself (top 100 refreshed daily). We do not publish a specific recommendation list. The reason is narrow: recommending a wallet requires a forward skill claim, and the V1 paper's limitations section explicitly flags concentration and survivorship as forward-claim risks. The correct primitives are the Truth Leaderboard (comparison view), the Polymarket wallet analyzer (per-wallet lookup), and the V1 methodology paper (the pre-registered rules). Build your own screen; the data is there.