Polymarket Wallet Analyzer
Paste any wallet. Calibration, sizing, concentration, Edge Score against the 8,656-wallet reference cohort, in about 30 seconds.
Analyzer caveat
Wallet analysis uses public resolved positions only. Results are noisy for thin samples and should be read as diagnostics, not investment advice.
How the scoring works
Brier score
A proper scoring rule for probabilistic forecasts. Lower is better. 0.00 is perfect. 0.25 is a coin flip on a 50/50 market. 0.50 is always wrong. The Brier score is the standard calibration metric used by forecasting researchers since Glenn Brier's 1950 paper.
Skill vs. baseline
We compare the wallet's Brier score against a naive baseline: always predict the base rate. A trader who beats the baseline by 0.05+ on 50+ resolved positions is showing better-than-baseline calibration in this sample. A profitable wallet that doesn't beat the baseline is making money from sizing and variance, not calibration.
Volume-weighted fills
A single whale bet fills across dozens of orderbook chunks, each landing as a separate /activity row. We aggregate fills by (market, side) and use volume-weighted average price so the Brier score measures actual predictions, not orderbook chunking.
Concentration check
One election or one sports event can produce a full career of P&L for a concentrated whale. We show the single biggest event's contribution so you can see whether the track record is built on hundreds of calibrated bets or one huge conviction trade.
Edge Score
Edge Score is our composite layer on top of the three metrics above. We fit calibration, sizing discipline, and concentration risk jointly against realized profit on a frozen cohort of 8,656 wallets. Your result is expressed as a percentile against that cohort. For the full derivation, see the 10K-wallet study.
Frequently asked questions
What is a Polymarket wallet analyzer?
A tool that takes a public Polymarket wallet address and computes a full calibration and sizing breakdown from on-chain trading history. Convexly's analyzer returns a Brier score, category-level calibration, position sizing diagnostics, concentration share, and a composite Edge Score ranked against 8,656 reference wallets. It runs in 30 seconds. Your first wallet analysis needs no signup, no signature, and no private key; analyzing more wallets is free with an account.
How can I tell if a Polymarket trader is skilled or just lucky?
Look past raw profit and win rate. Over a few dozen bets, a wallet can be up money on variance alone. Convexly computes a wallet's realized edge across its resolved positions and attaches a 95% confidence interval: if that interval includes zero, or the wallet has fewer than about 30 resolved positions, the track record is not separable from chance. That is the read a profit screenshot cannot give you.
How is Convexly different from a Polymarket PnL tracker?
PnL trackers and win-rate leaderboards show what happened; they do not tell you whether it was skill or luck. Convexly adds the inferential layer on top of the same public on-chain history: realized edge with a 95% confidence interval, calibration by market category (Brier score), and a composite Edge Score ranked against a frozen 8,656-wallet reference cohort. Our published skilled-wallet registry additionally applies a false-discovery-rate correction so luck across many wallets is not mistaken for skill. The single-wallet read is free and needs no signup.
How do I find my Polymarket wallet address?
Open polymarket.com, click your profile picture in the top right, and copy the address shown under your username. It starts with 0x and has 40 hexadecimal characters. That is the same public address you paste into the analyzer.
What is a Brier score?
A Brier score measures how well a probabilistic forecast matches reality. It ranges from 0 (perfect) to 1 (always wrong), with 0.25 being a coin flip on a 50/50 market. It has been the standard scoring rule for probabilistic forecasters since Glenn Brier's 1950 paper. Convexly computes a Brier score from a wallet's resolved Polymarket positions and breaks the number down by market category (politics, sports, crypto, etc.) so you can see where you are well calibrated and where you are not.
What is Edge Score?
Edge Score is Convexly's composite scoring layer. It combines three dimensions that empirically correlate with realized Polymarket profit on the V1 training cohort: calibration (how a wallet positions relative to its own base-rate Brier score, called Posture in the methodology paper), conviction (what share of P&L comes from a single market), and discipline (how tightly position count is managed). The composite is fit against a frozen reference cohort of 8,656 wallets. Raw Brier alone explains only ~2% of profit variance (Spearman r = +0.148); the composite does meaningfully better. V1.5 reported that the per-wallet temporal predictive tests both failed; the composite is a cross-sectional skill ranker, not a per-wallet forward forecast oracle.
Is the wallet analyzer really free?
Yes. Your first wallet analysis at /tools/polymarket-wallet-analyzer is free and needs no signup, and re-checking that same wallet stays free. Analyzing additional wallets is free with an account. Anonymous lookups are rate-limited to 3 analyses per 5 minutes per IP to protect the upstream Polymarket API. Convexly's paid plans add watchlists, digests, and Coherence Signals.
Does Convexly need my private key or wallet signature?
No. Convexly reads only public on-chain data. You paste a wallet address. We fetch the same trade history anyone could see on Polygon explorers. No private key, no signature, no transaction authorization is ever required.
How many trades do I need for a meaningful analysis?
The analyzer will return results at any volume, but calibration numbers stabilize around 30 resolved positions. Our internal studies use a minimum of 5 resolved fills per wallet as the inclusion criterion. Below that, the Brier score is dominated by noise and Edge Score percentile should be interpreted loosely.
Can I analyze someone else's wallet?
Yes. Polymarket wallet addresses are public. You can paste any 0x address you know. The landing page includes demo links for public sample wallets so you can see a full analyzer output before pasting your own address.
Related searches
Common ways traders describe this tool and the adjacent questions that tend to come up. Each link opens a direct answer with citations to the underlying methodology.
Polymarket wallet tracker
Public-data-only. First wallet free, no signup; more wallets free with an account. Same tool. Most users search for “tracker” when they mean analyzer.
Polymarket account tracker
How to monitor any Polymarket account's trade history and calibration from a public 0x address.
Polymarket scanner
Scan the full 8,656-wallet cohort for skill, not PnL. Frozen-coefficient composite, open methodology.
Best Polymarket wallets to study
Why the PnL leaderboard is a poor skill filter, and which wallets show cross-sectional behavioral skill.
Polymarket calibration tool
What the calibration curve measures, what a good Brier score is, and why calibration alone is not enough.
Polymarket whale tracker
Top 20 Polymarket wallets ranked by PnL vs by Edge Score side by side. Where the two columns disagree is the point.
Your next prediction deserves this too
Convexly is the evidence-linked wallet and market diligence layer for prediction-market traders. Polymarket wallet analysis is live.