Downloads and citation
Prediction market data and datasets
Every dataset, paper and audit artifact Convexly publishes, in one place, with a checksum and a citation line for each. Free, no account, no email required.
Sizes, checksums and record counts on this page were measured from the published files on 24 August 2026. If a checksum here does not match the file you downloaded, the file is not the one we published, and we would like to know: research@convexly.app.
Datasets
Manifold forecaster calibration dataset (15,106 users)
Per-forecaster aggregates for 15,106 Manifold users: resolved bet counts, binary and multi splits, unique events, average Brier score, a matched baseline Brier, the difference between them, realised profit and loss, largest single-event result, concentration and win rate. Forecaster identity is a hash. Shipped as part of the Edge Score V1-M reproduction bundle, which also carries the figures and the script that regenerates them.
- Format
- application/gzip
- Size
- 1.1 MB
- Records
- 15,106 forecasters
- Licence
- MIT
sha256 b9301525a625e4b17cb101b6c7d566a21cd73c431e99d50defe0069b447f7b86
Cite as
Convexly Research. Manifold forecaster calibration dataset (V1-M reproduction bundle). 2026. https://www.convexly.app/data#manifold-forecaster-dataset
Scored Polymarket wallet cohort
The published cohort artifact. Each row carries its Edge Score components, realised edge where one could be computed, its 95 percent interval, and a stamp saying whether the underlying read was proved complete or is only a window over recent activity. The file declares its own cohort rule and ordering in its cohort_source, ordered_by and ordering_note fields; read those and the per-row completeness stamp before using it. It is a closed set frozen for study, never a live screen and never a recommendation.
- Format
- application/json
- Size
- 93.9 KB
- Records
- 50 wallets (as measured)
- Licence
- MIT
sha256 0da30aeeafef48002a9b7125d25f982c2f3a86712039441a80ab67e4086df21b
Cite as
Convexly Research. Scored Polymarket wallet cohort. 2026. https://www.convexly.app/data#polymarket-scored-cohort
Cross-venue wallet label index
Address-to-label mappings assembled across Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold, with the provenance of each label. Used to attach a human-readable name to an address where one is publicly known.
- Format
- application/json
- Size
- 108.6 KB
- Records
- n/a
- Licence
- MIT
sha256 777af7e88f613fe215dce8cafb7445b770161c3846289a06bdef52ee36fef378
Cite as
Convexly Research. Cross-venue wallet label index. 2026. https://www.convexly.app/data#wallet-labels
Papers and methodology
Edge Score methodology V1-M
The frozen methodology behind Edge Score, with the cross-venue invariance extension: what the composite measures, the coefficients, the sample floors, and the tests that were run against it including the ones that failed.
- Format
- application/pdf
- Size
- 339.4 KB
- Records
- n/a
- Licence
- All rights reserved, free to read and cite
sha256 82ce7dc1b5d18bc6e5187f10d27613fdbfe9bc43576bd23055f8c1626e28de64
Cite as
Convexly Research. Edge Score Methodology V1-M. 2026. https://www.convexly.app/research/edge-score-methodology-v1m
Edge Score methodology V1
The original frozen methodology, retained so a reader can see what changed and when rather than only the current version.
- Format
- application/pdf
- Size
- 111.4 KB
- Records
- n/a
- Licence
- All rights reserved, free to read and cite
sha256 3a3f30a9aa5fbaface9660d34cee9e5f780f875c52e0da68c764cc26fa430e65
Cite as
Convexly Research. Edge Score Methodology V1. 2026. https://www.convexly.app/research/edge-score-methodology-v1
Audit and provenance artifacts
These are the objects that let someone check our work rather than take it on trust: what we registered before running a test, what we found when the answer was no, and the append-only log of what changed.
Published negative results
The tests that did not work. Each entry states what was predicted, what was found, and what was retired as a result. Published because a research surface that only reports its wins is not evidence, it is marketing.
- Format
- application/json
- Size
- 14.0 KB
- Records
- 4 entries
- Licence
- MIT
sha256 c98836cef1a7dae9d9d7c8163d9359d5643b33323284c7bc38b811ed13e512c0
Registration receipt index
The index of externally registered forward tests: what was filed, when, the window it covers, and where the third-party receipt lives. A method registered before the outcome is known is checkable; one described afterwards is not.
- Format
- application/json
- Size
- 24.9 KB
- Records
- 15 entries
- Licence
- MIT
sha256 5907216cc5a25b1f7c0326dfdfa5adaede72ae7e14aafe5175d3f2c554d32768
Append-only integrity log
The running record of what changed in the published artifacts and when, one JSON object per line, append only.
- Format
- application/x-ndjson
- Size
- 42.7 KB
- Records
- 88 entries
- Licence
- MIT
sha256 693d7007540e35708bfb95a47fcd9765a06c215a7f248832a86884557235d59a
Using these in research
The datasets are pseudonymised: forecaster identifiers are hashed and no account names, emails or wallet-linked identities are included. The Polymarket cohort artifact contains public on-chain addresses, which are public by construction on a public ledger.
If you are writing something that uses these and want a detail checked, or a figure regenerated at a different cut, write to research@convexly.app. There is no charge and no form.