Market Trust diligence packet
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $52 on the final trading day of June 2026?
One of four bands, strongest warning on the right
This market should not be cited as meaningful evidence from Convexly's v0.1 perspective.
Monitor, but do not cite as current. The evidence is useful as an archived read until the data freshness window refreshes.
Freshness gate: Diligence packet is stale for current product claims. Treat this as archived evidence and wait for a refresh before demos or outreach.
Market quality
35 / 100
Measured-only 25
Evidence confidence
3/7 measured
3 heuristic | 1 pending
Source health
public 24h
Snapshot 2026-05-11
Audit chain
a0c7459e84...
mtc_v0_1
Memo language
Convexly rates this polymarket market "Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $52 on the final trading day of June 2026?" as Do not cite. Use as an archived reference only. Open a current v0.2 packet before citing the price in new work. Caveat to carry: Experimental v0.1 artifact. The rating buckets and pillar weights are not yet validated against an out-of-sample backtest. This is market diligence, not a trading instruction or proof that the market probability is correct.
Caveat to carry: Experimental v0.1 artifact. The rating buckets and pillar weights are not yet validated against an out-of-sample backtest.
How to use this packet and what changes the verdict
Use this packet when
- Use as an archived reference when a v0.2 packet is unavailable.
- Use to understand the older stable-card caveats before relying on a live market price.
Do not use it as
- A trading instruction.
- Proof that the market probability is correct.
- A manipulation accusation or person-level identity claim.
What changes the verdict
- Open or generate a v0.2 packet with current source-health, participant-quality, and integrity evidence.
- Attach resolved-outcome evidence before using this as stable v1 proof.
How the score adds upWhy this verdict
Coherence
20
A same-event CME constraint fired near this market; the score discounts larger tensions.
Liquidity
22
Log-scaled liquidity and historical volume from the Gamma market snapshot.
Orderbook depth
36
Top-of-book plus full-ladder depth, penalized for wide spreads.
Modeled depth at size
12
Heuristic depth-at-size band from visible CLOB depth and gamma liquidity proxies. v0.1 does not measure executable fill against a real-size trade and the score is not a tradable capacity claim.
Participant quality
pending
Market-level wallet rollups are not yet joined in v0.1.
Manipulation risk
58
Heuristic only: v0.1 reads structural risk indicators (spread, volume, depth) and does not look at per-market wash trading or insider flow. A high score does not mean the market is measured manipulation-free; it means the structural indicators are not flagging.
Resolution reliability
77
Heuristic v0.1 inversion of the CME resolution-risk score. Inputs are subjective wording, liquidity floor, time-to-resolution, and category keyword priors. The score is not calibrated against historical UMA dispute rates yet, so a high reading means the heuristic flags are absent, not that resolution has been measured reliable.
Market identityWhat is being rated
Venue
polymarket
condition 0x3d61c9d321e41dd1...
Category
unmapped
used for coverage and validation breadth
Market status
not supplied
venue-provided lifecycle state when available
Resolution rule
Resolution-rule text is not supplied on this packet; treat that as a caveat.
card_id: mtc_v0_1:20260511:0x3d61c9d321e41dd111b2a17944f200eb2a55a86c9031c59dbf0cc546f7ee06dc
market_id: not supplied
venue_market_id: not supplied
resolution_source: not supplied
Audit chainReceipt and verification
Convexly stores the card payload, removes the row_hash field, canonicalizes the remaining JSON, and recomputes the SHA-256 hash. This is the bridge from a readable verdict to a buyer-reviewable audit chain.
method: mtc_v0_1
row_hash: a0c7459e841e9c3f04efd3c61556beb824299dc1b62dbe4dc7254250fd7d2b16
previous_row_hash: none recorded
source_artifact_hashes: none published
Participant and integrity screenWho shaped the price
Participant and integrity evidence is not attached to this stable v0.1 card. Use the v0.2 packet when scored-flow, unknown-flow, and concentration diagnostics are available.
Source freshness windowIngest status
Current source-health watermarks are unavailable on this archived card. Use this only as historical evidence until a v0.2 packet is available.
Validation stateCanary vs v1
Canary pipeline
blocked
Archived stable v0.1 card; current v0.2 source-health is unavailable for this packet.
Public v1 promotion
Public v1 promotion requires v0.2 validation evidence.
Archived cards are useful as historical evidence, not current public v1 proof.
Read the promotion evidence contract- Open or generate a v0.2 packet before using current-card language.
- Use a v0.2 card with outcome, source-health, and formula-freeze evidence before any v1 claim.
Top caveatsWhat travels with the score
- Experimental v0.1 artifact. The rating buckets and pillar weights are not yet validated against an out-of-sample backtest.
- Heuristic pillars (manipulation risk, resolution reliability, modeled depth at size) read structural indicators only and do not measure per-market manipulation, calibrated UMA dispute rates, or executable fill. A high heuristic score is the absence of a flag, not a measurement of safety.
- Participant-quality is pending until per-market wallet joins ship; the pillar is intentionally unscored so the composite does not imply informed-flow evidence we do not have yet.
- The source join uses the full internal CME report for condition_id mapping, but this public card does not expose trade direction or trade construction.
- The rating is about evidence quality for citing the price, not whether the market will resolve yes or no, and not a recommendation to trade.
- Not claiming: certified market
Before stable v1Validation requirements
- Use the v0.2 packet when current source-health, participant-quality, and integrity-screen evidence exists for this market.
External contextNon-scoring provenance
External context is not mapped on the stable v0.1 card. Use the v0.2 candidate packet when official macro, crypto, politics, or sports baseline families are available.
Full seven-pillar evidence grid
Coherence
weight 20 · measured
20 / 100
A same-event CME constraint fired near this market; the score discounts larger tensions.
Liquidity
weight 16 · measured
22 / 100
Log-scaled liquidity and historical volume from the Gamma market snapshot.
Orderbook depth
weight 15 · measured
36 / 100
Top-of-book plus full-ladder depth, penalized for wide spreads.
Modeled depth at size
weight 13 · heuristic
12 / 100
Heuristic depth-at-size band from visible CLOB depth and gamma liquidity proxies. v0.1 does not measure executable fill against a real-size trade and the score is not a tradable capacity claim.
Participant quality
weight 12 · pending
pending
Market-level wallet rollups are not yet joined in v0.1.
Manipulation risk
weight 12 · heuristic
58 / 100
Heuristic only: v0.1 reads structural risk indicators (spread, volume, depth) and does not look at per-market wash trading or insider flow. A high score does not mean the market is measured manipulation-free; it means the structural indicators are not flagging.
Resolution reliability
weight 12 · heuristic
77 / 100
Heuristic v0.1 inversion of the CME resolution-risk score. Inputs are subjective wording, liquidity floor, time-to-resolution, and category keyword priors. The score is not calibrated against historical UMA dispute rates yet, so a high reading means the heuristic flags are absent, not that resolution has been measured reliable.
Coherence blockLinked-market consistency
No current coherence pillar is attached to this archived packet.
Robustness blockSensitivity and drivers
Robustness diagnostics are not available on this archived packet.
Boundary of the packet
This packet is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether the market price has enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore with receipts attached.