This contract defines when Convexly may move Market Trust beyond v0.2 canary-preview language. It is grounded in the lessons from v0.1 static scorecards and v0.2 live packets: separate the verdict from evidence confidence, block current-card claims when sources are stale, and do not publish v1 language until resolved or reviewed outcomes exist.
Current cards
1
Need at least 30
Validation observations
990
Freshness, stability, and coherence windows
Resolved outcomes
10
0 human-review rows
Latest receipt
d8f4f695...4e615d
market_trust_card_v0_2
Lessons learned
v1 cannot be a rename of today's packet. It must be the result of evidence that survived the problems exposed by the earlier versions.
v0.1
The first Market Trust bundle proved that a market can carry a verdict, caveats, pillar scores, and a receipt. It also showed why static bundles cannot support current-language claims without source freshness and live outcome monitoring.
v0.2
The canary pipeline added source-health gates, measured versus estimated versus pending pillar labels, integrity-risk screens, audit-chain verification, and memo language. The lesson: buyers need the verdict and the caveat, but Convexly must keep the machinery close enough to audit.
v1 gate
A large set of live cards is still not enough. v1 waits for clean source-health windows, measured liquidity/depth, measured participant-quality evidence, resolved or human-reviewed outcomes, and explicit founder approval of the formula freeze before validation.
Promotion gates
30 current cards across 3 categories so the sample is not a one-market artifact.
14 consecutive clean source-health days before current-card language gets stronger.
20 cards with measured liquidity and depth, not just estimated evidence.
10 cards with measured participant-quality evidence and a scored-notional-share floor of 40%.
At least 1 resolved or human-reviewed row must be visible. Current count: 10.
The formula, thresholds, confidence caps, hard caps, and validation outcomes must be frozen before the validation result is inspected.
Gate rationale
v0.1 taught us that static cards can be legible without being current. v0.2 taught us that live cards can be current without being validated. The v1 candidate contract therefore separates operational liveness from statistical proof.
The contract requires 30 current cards so packet, export, route, and ledger behavior are exercised across more than one flagship example.
Boundary: It does not prove score accuracy or tier separation.
The promoted sample cannot be a single-event-family artifact.
Boundary: It does not prove category-general performance.
Current-language cards need a sustained operational window before buyers see stronger wording.
Boundary: It does not prove future uptime or enterprise SLA readiness.
The depth pillar needs a real measured denominator before it can influence stronger claims.
Boundary: It does not prove fillability or capacity.
Participant quality must move beyond one good card before it supports formula-freeze decisions.
Boundary: It does not prove participant skill predicts outcomes.
Participant quality should be driven by a meaningful measured share, not mostly unknown flow.
Boundary: It does not prove full wallet coverage or cross-venue identity.
This proves the post-card ledger path can accept evidence before validation starts.
Boundary: It is a liveness marker only, not statistical validation.
Thresholds, hard caps, and confidence rules must be fixed before outcomes are inspected.
Boundary: It does not prove the frozen formula is good.
Coverage breadth, source-health windows, and measured liquidity/depth are defensible as floor gates. Participant quality, integrity review, and calibration remain underpowered until the required rows accrue.
Boundary: It does not authorize stable v1, calibrated-rating, enterprise-ready, or manipulation-free language.
Draft formula boundary
This draft defines the candidate formula shape only. It does not authorize public v1-candidate, v1-stable, calibrated, or procurement-grade rating language.
use
80
draft cutpoint
use with caveats
65
draft cutpoint
discount
45
draft cutpoint
do not cite
0
draft cutpoint
Current claim boundary
Market Trust may be described today as a v0.2 canary-preview diligence card with verdict, caveat, source-health state, evidence confidence, and receipt. It may not be described as a calibrated rating, stable v1 system, compliance certification, manipulation finding, or proof that a market probability is correct.
Live blocker state: no ledger blockers reported.
Review ownership
Owns threshold rationale, power analysis, calibration design, formula-freeze readiness, and blocked quantitative wording.
Owns settlement-rule review, venue mechanics, participant-flow caveats, cross-venue equivalence rules, and data-rights labels.
Owns preregistration drafts, literature/citation hygiene, external-review packaging, and public limitation language.