Market Trust methodologyClaim ledger
Market Trust Card v0.1polymarket24h public snapshot

cl-over-under-jun-2026

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $52 on the final trading day of June 2026?

This market should not be cited as meaningful evidence from Convexly's v0.1 perspective.

Do not cite
34/100

Rating is about whether this market is currently citable as evidence, not whether the outcome will resolve yes or no.

Mid price

96.3%

Spread

4.40%

Liquidity

$2k

Depth

$2k

Pillar readings

Coherence

Measured

A same-event CME constraint fired near this market; the score discounts larger tensions.

20
/100
  • Matched MENE cluster with 99.1pp raw tension and z=132.7.
  • This is a structural-coherence reading, not a forecast of the market outcome.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x3d61c9d321e41dd111b2a17944f200eb2a55a86c9031c59dbf0cc546f7ee06dc

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x3d61c9d321e41dd111b2a17944f200eb2a55a86c9031c59dbf0cc546f7ee06dc

cme_signal_report_full.json:matched_cluster

Liquidity

Measured

Log-scaled liquidity and historical volume from the Gamma market snapshot.

13
/100
  • Liquidity is $2k and historical volume is $5k.
  • The score is log-scaled so a market must be meaningfully liquid, not merely nonzero.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x3d61c9d321e41dd111b2a17944f200eb2a55a86c9031c59dbf0cc546f7ee06dc

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x3d61c9d321e41dd111b2a17944f200eb2a55a86c9031c59dbf0cc546f7ee06dc

Orderbook depth

Measured

Top-of-book plus full-ladder depth, penalized for wide spreads.

32
/100
  • Full visible ladder depth is $2k; top-of-book depth is $156.
  • Yes-side bid/ask spread is 4.40pp.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x3d61c9d321e41dd111b2a17944f200eb2a55a86c9031c59dbf0cc546f7ee06dc

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x3d61c9d321e41dd111b2a17944f200eb2a55a86c9031c59dbf0cc546f7ee06dc

Capacity

Heuristic

Conservative v0.1 capacity band from visible depth; not an execution recommendation.

7
/100
  • Estimated public capacity band is $46 based on visible CLOB depth.
  • The card intentionally does not expose trade direction or executable trade construction.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x3d61c9d321e41dd111b2a17944f200eb2a55a86c9031c59dbf0cc546f7ee06dc

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x3d61c9d321e41dd111b2a17944f200eb2a55a86c9031c59dbf0cc546f7ee06dc

Participant quality

Pending

Market-level wallet rollups are not yet joined in v0.1.

50
/100
  • Wallet skill exists at the leaderboard/analyzer layer, but per-market participant joins are still pending.
  • This neutral 50/100 prevents the public card from implying informed-flow evidence we do not have yet.

Source refs

wallet_activity_snapshots:parser_pending

Manipulation risk

Heuristic

Conservative placeholder based on spread, volume, and depth until wallet-cluster analysis ships.

54
/100
  • v0.1 flags shallow or wide markets as easier to move, but does not claim to detect coordinated manipulation.
  • Future versions should incorporate wallet-cluster graphs, wash flags, and flow concentration.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x3d61c9d321e41dd111b2a17944f200eb2a55a86c9031c59dbf0cc546f7ee06dc

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x3d61c9d321e41dd111b2a17944f200eb2a55a86c9031c59dbf0cc546f7ee06dc

Resolution reliability

Heuristic

CME resolution-risk heuristic, surfaced per market for the first time.

77
/100
  • Max resolution risk input is 0.230.
  • Thresholds are MVP heuristics and must be re-audited before v0.2 validation claims.

Source refs

services/api/scripts/cme_v0_1/resolution_risk.py

gamma_snapshot.json:0x3d61c9d321e41dd111b2a17944f200eb2a55a86c9031c59dbf0cc546f7ee06dc

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x3d61c9d321e41dd111b2a17944f200eb2a55a86c9031c59dbf0cc546f7ee06dc