What is a prediction-market wallet skill audit?

The answer first

A prediction-market wallet skill audit asks one narrow, testable question of a Polymarket wallet: does its resolved record reflect demonstrated skill, or is it consistent with luck? It is independent, because it runs on public on-chain data rather than a self-reported screenshot, and reproducible, because the same address and the same frozen method return the same read. The audit does not endorse a wallet, take custody, or route investment advice. It reads the record and returns a verdict.

The engine is realized entry edge: how much more often the wallet's entries resolved true than the prices it paid implied, on the probability scale. A reading of +5 probability points would mean entries resolved true about five points more often than the paid prices implied. Convexly reads that statistic with a bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap 95 percent interval and always states the resolved-position count in the same breath, because at realistic sample sizes the point estimate on its own is mostly noise.

What the audit reads

A skill audit is not a single metric. It combines four inputs, each of which can demote the read on its own:

• Realized entry edge, with its 95 percent interval and count: the entry-price test, reported as probability points with a BCa 95 percent interval and the number of resolved positions behind it. The number never travels alone.
• Calibration: whether the wallet's implied probabilities line up with how often those positions actually resolve true, complementing the entry-price read.
• Concentration: a flag raised when a single event drives 60 percent or more of the net result, so the figure cannot be separated from one outcome.
• Resolved-position count: a floor of 30 resolved positions before a skill read is even attempted, because a thinner record cannot tell an edge from chance either way.

Worked example: the bigger number is the weaker read

Two real rows from the frozen 2026-06-09 scan of our own published top-50 cohort (full table at /research/top50-skill-scan):

• Wallet 0xaaaf7f: realized entry edge +12.2pp across 32 resolved positions, 95 percent interval [-0.7, +23.7]. The interval includes zero, so the record is not distinguishable from chance despite the large point estimate.
• Wallet 0xc2fb28: realized entry edge +5.6pp across 137 resolved positions, 95 percent interval [+1.2, +9.5]. Less than half the point estimate, but the interval clears zero: the stronger read. As one uncorrected test among 35 it is still consistent with chance at the cohort level and is not in the false-discovery-rate-controlled cleared set, and its net PnL on the board is negative.

That inversion is the whole point of running an audit rather than trusting a headline. A +12.2pp reading across 32 resolved positions tells you less than a +5.6pp reading across 137, because the interval width scales with sample size. Anyone quoting a wallet's edge without its interval and its resolved-position count in the same breath is quoting noise.

The verdict: distinguishable from chance, or not

The four inputs feed a deterministic four-state read, evaluated top-down with demotions first, so a flattering number can never out-vote a red flag:

• Flagged: a single event drives at least 60 percent of the net result, so the figure cannot be separated from one outcome. This overrides any point estimate.
• Insufficient: fewer than 30 resolved positions, or no usable interval. Too thin to tell an edge from chance either way.
• Not distinguishable from chance: the BCa 95 percent interval includes zero. This is not a claim of no skill; it is a claim that the record cannot establish one at this sample size.
• Skill distinguishable from chance: renders only when the sample floor is met, there is no concentration flag, and the BCa 95 percent lower bound is strictly above zero. Retrospective and in-sample; a past read is not a forecast.

When a whole cohort is screened at once, one positive interval does not survive being one test among many. That is the job of the false-discovery-rate correction, which sets the frozen bar for the cleared set. The frozen definitions live in the lexicon, and the interval construction is documented on the methodology page.

What a skill audit does NOT do

It does not measure dollar PnL, which on a fat-tailed market is dominated by a few large positions and by luck at these sample sizes. It does not forecast future trades: the per-wallet forward holdout did not clear the filed threshold, so a skill audit is not a prediction of a single wallet's next result. And it is not a recommendation to follow, mirror, or copy any trader or wallet. Convexly does not take custody, broker trades, or route investment advice. The audit reads a record; the decision stays with you.

Run a skill audit

Paste any Polymarket wallet address at the analyzer to get its realized entry edge, the BCa 95 percent interval, the resolved-position count, calibration and concentration, and the four-state verdict. Free, no signup, public on-chain data only.