What is a resolved-position count?

The answer first

A wallet's record on Polymarket is a mix of open positions and settled ones. The resolved-position count is how many have resolved, meaning the market settled to a known outcome. It matters because every skill statistic Convexly reports, above all the realized entry edge, is computed only over resolved positions: the count is the denominator. A read on 12 resolved positions and a read on 200 are not the same kind of evidence, and Convexly never shows an edge figure without its resolved-position count and its 95 percent confidence interval in the same breath.

Why a floor is required before a read is reportable

At small counts the confidence interval on the realized entry edge is so wide it swallows zero, so nothing can be told apart from luck. Convexly requires at least 30 resolved positions before it will report a skilled-or-not read; below that the wallet is marked insufficient. The floor exists because interval width shrinks roughly with the square root of the count, so adding resolved positions is what tightens the interval, not a flattering point estimate.

Worked example: the denominator, not the headline number

Two real rows from the frozen 2026-06-09 scan of our own published top-50 cohort (full table at /research/top50-skill-scan) show why the count, not the headline number, is the read:

• Wallet 0xaaaf7f: realized entry edge +12.2pp across only 32 resolved positions, 95 percent interval [-0.7, +23.7]. The interval includes zero, so the record is not separable from chance despite the large point estimate.
• Wallet 0xc2fb28: realized entry edge +5.6pp across 137 resolved positions, 95 percent interval [+1.2, +9.5]. Less than half the point estimate, but the larger denominator tightens the interval enough to clear zero. Even so, that single positive interval is one test among 35 in the cohort and is not in the false-discovery-rate corrected cleared set, which is a separate gate.

Read this example with what came next. On 2026-07-29 this same wallet was reconciled against the on-chain settlement record, and over its complete resolved record the realized edge is -19.8pp, 95 percent interval [-34.2, -6.9]: an interval sitting entirely below zero, where the windowed read had one sitting entirely above it. The complete read is refused a verdict anyway, because an entry price was recoverable for only 24.6% of the record, under the 50 percent floor. Nothing about the wallet changed between the two readings; what changed is which record was read. The lesson above still holds, and this is the harder half of it: an interval is only as trustworthy as the record it was computed over, and a recent-trade window is not the record.

The wallet with the bigger edge but the smaller count is the weaker read. Interval width scales with the resolved-position count, so anyone quoting a wallet's edge without its count and its interval in the same breath is quoting noise.

Insufficient is not unskilled

When a wallet falls below the floor Convexly marks it insufficient. That is a statement about the evidence, not the trader: the record is too thin to distinguish skill from chance either way. It is not a claim that the wallet lacks skill, and it is not a red flag. A wallet with 15 resolved positions is simply not yet readable; as more of its markets resolve, the read may become reportable in either direction.

What the count feeds

The resolved-position count is the sample-size gate in the deterministic four-state read used on the analyzer, the skill badge, and the cohort scans, evaluated top-down with the sufficiency gates first. (Since the 2026-07-15 reframe, high single-event concentration is a descriptive style label, not a gate; the flagged state is reserved for a future integrity screen.)

• Insufficient: the record is not scored on resolved outcomes, holds fewer than 30 resolved positions, collapses into fewer than 20 independent resolved events, or yields no usable interval. Too thin to tell an edge from chance either way.
• Not separable from chance: the 95 percent interval includes zero. Not a claim of no skill; a claim that the record cannot establish one at this sample size.
• Skilled: renders only when all gates pass and the 95 percent lower bound is strictly above zero. Retrospective and in-sample; a past read is not a forecast.

The frozen definitions live in the lexicon, and the interval construction is documented on the methodology page.

Check a wallet's resolved-position count

Paste any Polymarket wallet address at the analyzer to get its resolved-position count, the realized entry edge in probability points, the 95 percent interval, and the four-state read. Free, no signup, Polymarket public data only. No signature, no private key.