Convexly Enterprise / Market Quality Audit

Venue-level review of coherence, capacity, slippage, and audit-chain reproducibility.

The Convexly Market Quality Audit (MQA) is an institutional diligence engagement scoped to a single prediction-market or crypto-perpetual venue. It produces the artifact a compliance team, market-maker desk, or research office can hand to its risk committee and act on. Each engagement is scoped jointly on an intake call; this page describes what an MQA covers.

Scope

Four audit primitives, scoped to a single venue.

Each MQA bundles four independent measurements; pilots can subset to one or two if the venue prefers a tighter first scope. The Coherent Markets Engine and Edge Score methodology pieces underlie all four. See research / start-here for the methodology entry point.

Coherence violations

Cross-event probability axiom checks (mutually-exclusive sums, conditional Bayes, binary additivity). Per-violation detail with timestamped CLOB inputs and BH-FDR-corrected significance.

Capacity decay

Per-signal maximum-deployable notional walked against full-ladder orderbook depth, reported at $100 / $1K / $10K / $100K aggregate tiers. Distinguishes top-of-book capacity from realized capacity above book.

Slippage sensitivity

Cohort net-EV sweep at additional-slippage haircuts above the venue's published spread baseline. Median per-signal breakeven additional-slippage in basis points.

Audit-chain verification

Optional: third-party reproducibility check on the venue's internal signal pipeline. SHA-256 hash chain from raw inputs to published outputs; any divergence flagged with the input-pair that produced it.

Inputs

What we need from the venue.

  • 01Public CLOB or orderbook snapshot feed — read-only access. For most prediction-market venues the public REST endpoint is sufficient; for permissioned venues a daily JSONL dump works.
  • 02Event / market metadata — slugs, end-dates, resolution oracles, fee schedules, min-order sizes.
  • 03Internal signal pipeline outputs — only required if the venue wants audit-chain review. JSON or CSV of signals with input-hash references.
  • 04Scoping document — which primitive(s) to run, target sample window, any contractual confidentiality requirements (NDA available).

Deliverable

What the venue receives.

  • AAudit PDF on Convexly Research letterhead — narrative findings + every chart with CIs / p-values inline + scoping caveats. Designed to drop into a compliance file.
  • BJSON appendix — every numeric in the PDF, machine-readable. Lets the venue's analytics team re-derive any chart or run the same audit primitive on a different sample window.
  • CHash manifest — SHA-256 of every input artifact + every output. Anyone can verify bit-for-bit reproducibility against the audit chain at /research/verify.
  • D30-minute walkthrough call — primary author walks the venue's risk committee through findings + answers questions + scopes follow-on work if any.

Limitations

What an MQA does NOT do.

  • Does NOT guarantee the absence of coherence violations. The audit measures a sample window; the venue's live state can diverge between samples. Sample size + window length are stated explicitly.
  • Does NOT certify the venue. Convexly is not a credit-rating agency or a regulator. The MQA reports measurements; the regulator or risk committee makes determinations.
  • Does NOT replace internal compliance review. The audit is a third-party numerical layer; internal procedural review still applies.
  • Does NOT cover counterparty credit, custody, or operational risk. Scope is market-microstructure-only.

Next step

Scope an engagement.

If your venue, desk, or research office wants a venue-level market-quality review, apply below for a 30-minute scoping call. We map your specific need to the MQA primitives and agree the scope together before any work begins.