Convexly Research / Start here
The research surface, by how much time you have.
Convexly publishes its own methodology in full: pre-registered tests, frozen coefficients, SHA-256 audit chains, and openly-published negative results. The catalog at /research has every paper in chronological order. This page is the curated map for visitors who want a route in.
The two methodology pieces.
Every score and every signal on Convexly traces back to one of these two. Both are frozen-coefficient: once a paper ships, the math is locked at a public commit.
Edge Score V1-M
Convexly's frozen-coefficient wallet skill ranking, calibration-weighted. Cross-venue extension; out-of-fold Spearman +0.514 (p < 0.0001) on the V1 cohort. The flagship methodology paper.
Methodology · 2026-04-22
Coherent Markets Engine V0.1
Convexly's structural-mispricing detector. Reads CLOB prices across linked Polymarket events, builds the implied joint distribution, flags coherence violations. NOT the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Methodology · 2026-04-28
What we publish when our methods fail.
The strongest signal is what we publish when our methods fail. Most analytics companies bury negative results because failure is bad for marketing. Convexly publishes them on dedicated pages because the trust compounds.
Edge Score V1.5: both primary tests failed
Pre-registered V1.5 follow-up (AsPredicted #287368). Per-wallet temporal holdout (E2) and per-quarter IC stability (E7) — both failed their ex-ante thresholds. Honest reframing: V3b is a cross-sectional ranker, not a per-wallet temporal predictor.
Negative result · 2026-04-27
MarketAlpha V2.8.2: 24-of-24 aggregators failed
AsPredicted #287436 + #287442 + #287714: 24-aggregator sweep on V1-M cohort. Zero specifications beat the market-implied baseline. Substantive finding: PnL-skill on Polymarket is not a usable forecast-aggregation weight.
Negative result · 2026-04-27
Negative-results register
The full index of every pre-registered hypothesis Convexly has published as failed-or-null. Updated alongside every paper that runs.
Index
CME Signal Feed track record
Daily resolved-PnL accumulator for the CME Signal Feed. Today's claims are framed as 'modeled net EV at prescribed size,' not realized PnL — promotion to realized requires V0.1.6 + 30-90 days of resolutions + a passing random-control arm.
Live tracker
The full paper stack + the verification surface.
If you want to dig into the math, replicate the analysis, or check whether what we ship matches what we published.
Full paper catalog
Every Convexly research paper, sorted newest first. Edge Score V1, V1.5, V1-M, V1-M politics amendment; CME V0.1 + V0.2.0; V2-Perps; V2.8.2 honest-failures register; the 10K wallet study; the whale audit; the Gomez-Cram comparison; and more.
Index
Pre-registration index
Every AsPredicted filing Convexly has lodged, with status: PASSED / FAILED / PENDING. The audit trail for the forward-test discipline.
Index
Audit-chain verifier
Browser-side SHA-256 hash-chain verifier. Paste any Convexly paper's audit-chain anchor and confirm bit-for-bit reproducibility against the published inputs.
Tool
V2-Perps research
In-research extension of the methodology to crypto perpetual derivatives. Companion: the cross-jurisdiction Hyperliquid Policy Center co-filing posture for the next CFTC rulemaking window.
Methodology · 2026-05-01
How Convexly publishes
Three disciplines, in order.
- 01 Frozen coefficients. Once a methodology paper ships, the scoring math is locked at a public commit. Future tweaks ship as new versions; the old version remains independently reproducible.
- 02 Forward tests filed at AsPredicted. Future extensions are filed at AsPredicted (the academic hypothesis-locking registry) with their pass/fail thresholds before the data is touched. The complete filing index, with verdict for each, lives at /research/preregistrations.
- 03 SHA-256 audit chain. Every paper carries an audit-chain hash that links inputs (raw data) to outputs (scores, plots, conclusions). Any third party can re-derive the published outputs from the published inputs and verify them in a browser.
Together: methodology disclosed, math frozen, forward tests pre-registered, results published whether they pass or fail, every artifact independently reproducible. Verify it yourself.