{ "schema_version": "1.0.0", "title": "Convexly AsPredicted pre-registration manifest", "description": "Convexly's pre-registration and receipt manifest, with hypothesis, run target, verdict, audit-chain reference, and explicit external-receipt health. Entries are not treated as externally verified unless receipt_status is verified_external.", "maintained_at": "https://www.convexly.app/research/preregistrations.json", "page_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/preregistrations", "audit_chain_verify_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/verify", "negative_result_registry_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/negative-results", "last_updated_utc": "2026-06-01T18:00:00Z", "receipt_last_checked_utc": "2026-06-01T18:00:00Z", "entries": [ { "id": "287368", "url": "https://aspredicted.org/4gn42g.pdf", "receipt_status": "verified_external", "receipt_last_checked_utc": "2026-05-10T22:09:46Z", "expected_title_substring": "Edge Score V1.5", "expected_filing_date": "2026/04/25", "title": "V1.5 follow-up experiments E2 + E7", "filed_at_utc": "2026-04-25", "ran_at_utc": "2026-04-27", "verdict": "FAILED (both primary tests)", "verdict_summary": "E2 per-wallet temporal holdout: ρ = +0.111 [+0.046, +0.175], well below the +0.30 pre-reg threshold. E7 per-quarter IC stability: median ρ = +0.038, only 3 of 5 quarters positive vs ≥5/6 required. Both failed.", "paper_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/edge-score-methodology-v1-5", "paper_title": "Edge Score Methodology V1.5: deferred-experiments follow-up", "registry_entry_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/negative-results#neg-002-v15-e2-per-wallet-temporal-holdout", "audit_chain_anchor": "v1_5_analyses_results_20260427_191717" }, { "id": "287436", "url": null, "receipt_status": "pending_public_url", "receipt_last_checked_utc": "2026-05-10T22:09:46Z", "expected_title_substring": "MarketAlpha V2", "expected_filing_date": "2026/04/26", "receipt_note": "Public AsPredicted receipt not yet verified. Cite the linked paper and audit-chain anchor until a public receipt resolves to the expected title and filing date.", "title": "MarketAlpha V2 in-sample skill-weighted aggregation tests", "filed_at_utc": "2026-04-26", "ran_at_utc": "2026-04-26", "verdict": "FAILED (superseded by #287714 cohort substitution amendment + #287983 wash-filter TOST)", "verdict_summary": "Initial in-sample test of skill-weighted aggregation as per-market price prior. 24 aggregator variants tested; all rejected. Cohort substitution amendment filed as #287714.", "paper_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/marketalpha-v2", "paper_title": "MarketAlpha V2.8.2: skill-weighted aggregation negative-result paper", "audit_chain_anchor": "marketalpha_v2_in_sample_run" }, { "id": "287442", "url": null, "receipt_status": "pending_public_url", "receipt_last_checked_utc": "2026-05-10T22:09:46Z", "expected_title_substring": "MarketAlpha V2", "expected_filing_date": "2026/04/26", "receipt_note": "Public AsPredicted receipt not yet verified. Cite the linked paper and audit-chain anchor until a public receipt resolves to the expected title and filing date.", "title": "MarketAlpha V2 forward-only skill-weighted aggregation tests", "filed_at_utc": "2026-04-26", "ran_at_utc": "2026-04-26", "verdict": "FAILED (forward-only; superseded by #287714 cohort amendment + #287983 wash-filter TOST)", "verdict_summary": "Forward-only complement to #287436. Same 24 aggregator variants on a held-out forward window. All variants rejected forward.", "paper_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/marketalpha-v2", "paper_title": "MarketAlpha V2.8.2: skill-weighted aggregation negative-result paper", "audit_chain_anchor": "marketalpha_v2_forward_run" }, { "id": "287714", "url": null, "receipt_status": "pending_public_url", "receipt_last_checked_utc": "2026-05-10T22:09:46Z", "expected_title_substring": "cohort", "expected_filing_date": "2026/04/27", "receipt_note": "Public AsPredicted receipt not yet verified. Cite the linked paper and audit-chain anchor until a public receipt resolves to the expected title and filing date.", "title": "MarketAlpha V2 cohort-substitution amendment", "filed_at_utc": "2026-04-27", "ran_at_utc": "2026-04-27", "verdict": "FAILED (V1-M cohort substituted for V1; same rejection)", "verdict_summary": "Cohort substitution from V1 (8,656 wallets) to V1-M (8,778 wallets) to verify the negative result is not cohort-specific. All 24 aggregator variants rejected on V1-M as well; consistent with the original finding.", "paper_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/marketalpha-v2", "paper_title": "MarketAlpha V2.8.2: skill-weighted aggregation negative-result paper", "audit_chain_anchor": "marketalpha_v2_cohort_substitution" }, { "id": "287983", "url": null, "receipt_status": "pending_public_url", "receipt_last_checked_utc": "2026-05-10T22:09:46Z", "expected_title_substring": "wash-filter", "expected_filing_date": "2026/04/28", "receipt_note": "Public AsPredicted receipt not yet verified. Cite the linked paper and audit-chain anchor until a public receipt resolves to the expected title and filing date.", "title": "V2.8.2 wash-filter TOST equivalence test on V1-M Polymarket cohort (Sirolly-adapted)", "filed_at_utc": "2026-04-28", "ran_at_utc": "2026-04-29", "verdict": "PASSED (TOST equivalence range fully contained)", "verdict_summary": "Wash-filter robustness check on the V2.8.2 negative result. Brier delta CI [+0.16028, +0.19287] sits inside the pre-registered TOST equivalence range [+0.154, +0.204]. Movement after wash filtering: +0.00243 Brier (1.4% relative). The V2.8.2 finding (skill-weighted aggregation rejected) is robust to wash-trader filtering at composite-z >= 3.0.", "paper_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/marketalpha-v2", "paper_title": "MarketAlpha V2.8.2: skill-weighted aggregation negative-result paper", "registry_entry_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/negative-results#neg-001-v282-skill-weighted-aggregation", "audit_chain_anchor": "v28_2_wash_filter_tost_passed_2026_04_29" }, { "id": "288046", "url": null, "receipt_status": "pending_public_url", "receipt_last_checked_utc": "2026-05-10T22:09:46Z", "expected_title_substring": "CME V0.2", "expected_filing_date": "2026/04/29", "receipt_note": "Public AsPredicted receipt not yet verified. Cite the linked paper and audit-chain anchor until a public receipt resolves to the expected title and filing date.", "title": "CME V0.2 backtest: 90-day walk-forward on Polymarket constraint-projection signals", "filed_at_utc": "2026-04-29", "ran_at_utc": null, "expected_run_at_utc": "2026-07-29", "verdict": "PENDING", "verdict_summary": "90-day walk-forward backtest of the CME V0.2 constraint-projection pipeline pre-registered. Hyperparameters frozen ex-ante (thresholds, sizing, cost model, performance metrics). No hyperparameter tuning based on backtest results allowed by the pre-reg.", "paper_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/coherent-markets-engine-v1", "paper_title": "Coherent Markets Engine V0.1 + V0.2.0", "audit_chain_anchor": "cme_v0_2_0_methodology_frozen_commit_8616a63" }, { "id": "288610", "url": null, "receipt_status": "pending_public_url", "receipt_last_checked_utc": "2026-05-10T22:09:46Z", "expected_title_substring": "V2-Perps", "expected_filing_date": "2026/05/01", "receipt_note": "Public AsPredicted receipt not yet verified. Cite the linked paper and audit-chain anchor until a public receipt resolves to the expected title and filing date.", "title": "V2-Perps Edge Score: skill ranking with CRPS + funding-capture pillars", "filed_at_utc": "2026-05-01", "ran_at_utc": null, "expected_run_at_utc": null, "verdict": "PENDING", "verdict_summary": "Pre-registers the form (4 pillars: CRPS-posture, conviction, discipline, funding-capture) + 7 validation gates for the V2-Perps Edge Score composite. Form locked at freeze commit 8c86dd4; coefficients TBD pending Hyperliquid 90-day cohort fit. Composite reduces to V1 / V3b on binary outcomes (Brier-equivalence identity) and extends across crypto perps, equity perps, compute futures, AI benchmark markets, valuation futures, and prediction markets per spec Section 6.", "paper_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/v2-perps", "paper_title": "Edge Score V2-Perps: cross-substrate skill ranking methodology", "audit_chain_anchor": "v2_perps_methodology_frozen_commit_8c86dd4" }, { "id": "288615", "url": null, "receipt_status": "pending_public_url", "receipt_last_checked_utc": "2026-05-10T22:09:46Z", "expected_title_substring": "CME V0.2-Perps", "expected_filing_date": "2026/05/01", "receipt_note": "Public AsPredicted receipt not yet verified. Cite the linked paper and audit-chain anchor until a public receipt resolves to the expected title and filing date.", "title": "CME V0.2-Perps: 90d walk-forward on Hyperliquid coherence-violation signals", "filed_at_utc": "2026-05-01", "ran_at_utc": null, "expected_run_at_utc": "2026-07-30", "verdict": "PENDING", "verdict_summary": "90-day walk-forward backtest of the V0.2-Perps coherence-violation engine (7 constraints: cash-and-carry, triangle, put-call parity, Carr-Madan butterfly, Litterman-Scheinkman PCA calendar, cross-venue 4-corner, vertical-spread monotonicity). H1 net Sharpe > 1.0; H2 capacity ceiling < 50K USD/day; H3 each constraint contributes positive Sharpe with 95% bootstrap CI excluding zero. Methodology code freezes at commit adb99d6; emit cron at .github/workflows/cme-v0-2-perps-emit.yml.", "paper_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/cme-v0-2-perps", "paper_title": "CME V0.2-Perps: cross-venue coherence-violation engine for crypto derivatives", "audit_chain_anchor": "cme_v0_2_perps_methodology_frozen_commit_adb99d6" }, { "id": "294035", "url": null, "receipt_status": "pending_public_url", "receipt_last_checked_utc": "2026-06-01T18:00:00Z", "expected_title_substring": "realized-vs-control", "expected_filing_date": "2026/05/31", "receipt_note": "Filed (#294035), public AsPredicted receipt pending verification. Confirmation email sent to research@convexly.app; the public receipt URL/PDF must pass Convexly's receipt verifier before any external citation. Until then this is 'filed (#294035), receipt pending verification', never 'pre-registered with public receipt'. Cite the linked paper and audit-chain anchor in the interim.", "title": "CME realized-vs-control forward-only validation (92-day prospective window)", "filed_at_utc": "2026-05-31", "ran_at_utc": null, "expected_run_at_utc": "2026-09-01", "verdict": "PENDING", "verdict_summary": "Strictly-prospective realized-vs-control validation of CME signals. H1: realized PnL of the CME-chosen side at the USD 1,000 capacity tier exceeds the mean of K=20 matched-noise controls, one-sided paired permutation at alpha = 0.025, AND the 95% bootstrap CI lower bound for mean paired difference is > 0. Evidence window = 92 calendar days beginning the first full UTC signal-emission day after the filing timestamp; pre-filing/same-day signals excluded. Reports insufficient_sample if fewer than 30 resolved signal/control pairs by the analysis date; no threshold tuning or window extension without a new pre-registration. CME methodology frozen for the window.", "paper_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/coherent-markets-engine-v1", "paper_title": "Coherent Markets Engine V0.1 + V0.2.0", "audit_chain_anchor": "cme_realized_vs_control_forward_only_filed_294035_2026_05_31" }, { "id": "294147", "url": null, "receipt_status": "pending_public_url", "receipt_last_checked_utc": "2026-06-01T18:00:00Z", "expected_title_substring": "forward-persistence", "expected_filing_date": "2026/06/01", "receipt_note": "Filed (#294147), public AsPredicted receipt pending verification. Filed Independent of #294035. Confirmation email sent to research@convexly.app; the public receipt URL/PDF must pass Convexly's receipt verifier before any external citation. Until then this is 'filed (#294147), receipt pending verification', never 'pre-registered with public receipt'. The underlying in-sample FDR-cleared candidate set is a research artifact (docs/research/skilled-wallet-fdr-readme.md), not a published paper; no public paper page exists yet, so this entry links the manifest itself.", "title": "Wallet-skill FDR candidate-set forward-persistence validation (discretionary cohort, 90-day prospective window)", "filed_at_utc": "2026-06-01", "ran_at_utc": null, "expected_run_at_utc": "2026-08-31", "verdict": "PENDING", "verdict_summary": "Strictly-prospective forward-persistence holdout for the in-sample FDR-cleared discretionary wallet set (178 of 3,871 wallets clear BH-FDR at q = 0.10 for positive realized edge over entry prices on the frozen 2026-04-25 tape; expected false discoveries among the cleared set at most ~17.8 -- in-sample skill-vs-luck separation, NOT validated forward skill). Frozen objects: realized-edge skill measure mean(won - vwap_prob); the 178-wallet candidate set; the 3,693-wallet control set; the micro-market exclusion rule. H1 (both legs required): (a) candidate-set pooled forward edge exceeds control-set pooled forward edge, one-sided wallet-label permutation at alpha = 0.025; (b) candidate-set pooled forward edge has a 95% BCa lower bound > 0. Evidence window = 90 calendar days of newly-resolved discretionary positions beginning the first full UTC day after the filing timestamp; 2026-04-25 in-sample positions excluded. Floors: >=10 forward positions/wallet, >=40 candidate wallets, >=1,000 candidate forward positions, else insufficient_sample. A pre-registered null (no_persistence) or insufficient_sample is a valid, publishable outcome.", "paper_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/preregistrations", "paper_title": "Wallet-skill FDR forward-persistence pre-registration (public write-up pending)", "audit_chain_anchor": "wallet_skill_fdr_discretionary_forward_persistence_filed_294147_2026_06_01" } ], "policy": { "filing_rule": "For post-2026-04-25 methodology changes that affect external claims, Convexly either files a pre-registration before analysis runs or marks the item internal-only / pending-public-url until an external receipt can be verified.", "verdict_update_rule": "When a pre-registered test runs, the verdict + run_at_utc + verdict_summary are updated within 24 hours of the run completing. Verdicts are PASSED, FAILED, or PENDING. Failed pre-registrations are added to the negative-result registry at /research/negative-results.", "supersession_rule": "When a pre-registration is superseded by an amendment, the original entry is kept (verdict noted as superseded) and the amendment is added as a separate entry. Original entries are never removed.", "audit_chain_link": "Every entry's audit_chain_anchor field references the SHA-256-hash-chained run identifier in apps/web/public/research/cme/audit_log.jsonl (or paper-specific provenance log). The /research/verify page walks the chain in client-side JavaScript and renders a green stamp if every prev_hash matches its parent's row_hash.", "receipt_rule": "receipt_status controls public rendering. verified_external requires a URL whose page content matches the expected AsPredicted ID, title substring, and filing date. pending_public_url and internal_only entries must not publish or render normal outbound receipt URLs." } }