{
  "schema_version": "1.0.0",
  "title": "Convexly AsPredicted pre-registration manifest",
  "description": "Every AsPredicted pre-registration filed by Convexly Research, with hypothesis, run target, verdict, and audit-chain reference. The locked moat thesis (per convexly_priority_stack_2026_04_29.md) is methodology rigor + regulator credibility; this manifest is the public-record receipt for that claim.",
  "maintained_at": "https://www.convexly.app/research/preregistrations.json",
  "page_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/preregistrations",
  "audit_chain_verify_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/verify",
  "negative_result_registry_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/negative-results",
  "last_updated_utc": "2026-05-01T18:00:00Z",
  "entries": [
    {
      "id": "287368",
      "url": "https://aspredicted.org/blind.php?x=287368",
      "title": "V1.5 follow-up experiments E2 + E7",
      "filed_at_utc": "2026-04-25",
      "ran_at_utc": "2026-04-27",
      "verdict": "FAILED (both primary tests)",
      "verdict_summary": "E2 per-wallet temporal holdout: ρ = +0.111 [+0.046, +0.175], well below the +0.30 pre-reg threshold. E7 per-quarter IC stability: median ρ = +0.038, only 3 of 5 quarters positive vs ≥5/6 required. Both failed.",
      "paper_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/edge-score-methodology-v1-5",
      "paper_title": "Edge Score Methodology V1.5: deferred-experiments follow-up",
      "registry_entry_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/negative-results#neg-002-v15-e2-per-wallet-temporal-holdout",
      "audit_chain_anchor": "v1_5_analyses_results_20260427_191717"
    },
    {
      "id": "287436",
      "url": "https://aspredicted.org/blind.php?x=287436",
      "title": "MarketAlpha V2 in-sample skill-weighted aggregation tests",
      "filed_at_utc": "2026-04-26",
      "ran_at_utc": "2026-04-26",
      "verdict": "FAILED (superseded by #287714 cohort substitution amendment + #287983 wash-filter TOST)",
      "verdict_summary": "Initial in-sample test of skill-weighted aggregation as per-market price prior. 24 aggregator variants tested; all rejected. Cohort substitution amendment filed as #287714.",
      "paper_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/marketalpha-v2",
      "paper_title": "MarketAlpha V2.8.2: skill-weighted aggregation negative-result paper",
      "audit_chain_anchor": "marketalpha_v2_in_sample_run"
    },
    {
      "id": "287442",
      "url": "https://aspredicted.org/blind.php?x=287442",
      "title": "MarketAlpha V2 forward-only skill-weighted aggregation tests",
      "filed_at_utc": "2026-04-26",
      "ran_at_utc": "2026-04-26",
      "verdict": "FAILED (forward-only; superseded by #287714 cohort amendment + #287983 wash-filter TOST)",
      "verdict_summary": "Forward-only complement to #287436. Same 24 aggregator variants on a held-out forward window. All variants rejected forward.",
      "paper_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/marketalpha-v2",
      "paper_title": "MarketAlpha V2.8.2: skill-weighted aggregation negative-result paper",
      "audit_chain_anchor": "marketalpha_v2_forward_run"
    },
    {
      "id": "287714",
      "url": "https://aspredicted.org/blind.php?x=287714",
      "title": "MarketAlpha V2 cohort-substitution amendment",
      "filed_at_utc": "2026-04-27",
      "ran_at_utc": "2026-04-27",
      "verdict": "FAILED (V1-M cohort substituted for V1; same rejection)",
      "verdict_summary": "Cohort substitution from V1 (8,656 wallets) to V1-M (8,778 wallets) to verify the negative result is not cohort-specific. All 24 aggregator variants rejected on V1-M as well; consistent with the original finding.",
      "paper_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/marketalpha-v2",
      "paper_title": "MarketAlpha V2.8.2: skill-weighted aggregation negative-result paper",
      "audit_chain_anchor": "marketalpha_v2_cohort_substitution"
    },
    {
      "id": "287983",
      "url": "https://aspredicted.org/blind.php?x=287983",
      "title": "V2.8.2 wash-filter TOST equivalence test on V1-M Polymarket cohort (Sirolly-adapted)",
      "filed_at_utc": "2026-04-28",
      "ran_at_utc": "2026-04-29",
      "verdict": "PASSED (TOST equivalence range fully contained)",
      "verdict_summary": "Wash-filter robustness check on the V2.8.2 negative result. Brier delta CI [+0.16028, +0.19287] sits inside the pre-registered TOST equivalence range [+0.154, +0.204]. Movement after wash filtering: +0.00243 Brier (1.4% relative). The V2.8.2 finding (skill-weighted aggregation rejected) is robust to wash-trader filtering at composite-z >= 3.0.",
      "paper_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/marketalpha-v2",
      "paper_title": "MarketAlpha V2.8.2: skill-weighted aggregation negative-result paper",
      "registry_entry_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/negative-results#neg-001-v282-skill-weighted-aggregation",
      "audit_chain_anchor": "v28_2_wash_filter_tost_passed_2026_04_29"
    },
    {
      "id": "288046",
      "url": "https://aspredicted.org/blind.php?x=288046",
      "title": "CME V0.2 backtest: 90-day walk-forward on Polymarket constraint-projection signals",
      "filed_at_utc": "2026-04-29",
      "ran_at_utc": null,
      "expected_run_at_utc": "2026-07-29",
      "verdict": "PENDING",
      "verdict_summary": "90-day walk-forward backtest of the CME V0.2 constraint-projection pipeline pre-registered. Hyperparameters frozen ex-ante (thresholds, sizing, cost model, performance metrics). No hyperparameter tuning based on backtest results allowed by the pre-reg.",
      "paper_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/coherent-markets-engine-v1",
      "paper_title": "Coherent Markets Engine V0.1 + V0.2.0",
      "audit_chain_anchor": "cme_v0_2_0_methodology_frozen_commit_8616a63"
    },
    {
      "id": "288610",
      "url": "https://aspredicted.org/blind.php?x=288610",
      "title": "V2-Perps Edge Score: skill ranking with CRPS + funding-capture pillars",
      "filed_at_utc": "2026-05-01",
      "ran_at_utc": null,
      "expected_run_at_utc": null,
      "verdict": "PENDING",
      "verdict_summary": "Pre-registers the form (4 pillars: CRPS-posture, conviction, discipline, funding-capture) + 7 validation gates for the V2-Perps Edge Score composite. Form locked at freeze commit 8c86dd4; coefficients TBD pending Hyperliquid 90-day cohort fit. Composite reduces to V1 / V3b on binary outcomes (Brier-equivalence identity) and extends across crypto perps, equity perps, compute futures, AI benchmark markets, valuation futures, and prediction markets per spec Section 6.",
      "paper_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/v2-perps",
      "paper_title": "Edge Score V2-Perps: cross-substrate skill ranking methodology",
      "audit_chain_anchor": "v2_perps_methodology_frozen_commit_8c86dd4"
    },
    {
      "id": "288615",
      "url": "https://aspredicted.org/blind.php?x=288615",
      "title": "CME V0.2-Perps: 90d walk-forward on Hyperliquid coherence-violation signals",
      "filed_at_utc": "2026-05-01",
      "ran_at_utc": null,
      "expected_run_at_utc": "2026-07-30",
      "verdict": "PENDING",
      "verdict_summary": "90-day walk-forward backtest of the V0.2-Perps coherence-violation engine (7 constraints: cash-and-carry, triangle, put-call parity, Carr-Madan butterfly, Litterman-Scheinkman PCA calendar, cross-venue 4-corner, vertical-spread monotonicity). H1 net Sharpe > 1.0; H2 capacity ceiling < 50K USD/day; H3 each constraint contributes positive Sharpe with 95% bootstrap CI excluding zero. Methodology code freezes at commit adb99d6; emit cron at .github/workflows/cme-v0-2-perps-emit.yml.",
      "paper_url": "https://www.convexly.app/research/cme-v0-2-perps",
      "paper_title": "CME V0.2-Perps: cross-venue coherence-violation engine for crypto derivatives",
      "audit_chain_anchor": "cme_v0_2_perps_methodology_frozen_commit_adb99d6"
    }
  ],
  "policy": {
    "filing_rule": "Every methodology change that affects an external claim is pre-registered on AsPredicted before any analysis runs. The pre-registration appears in this manifest within 24 hours of filing.",
    "verdict_update_rule": "When a pre-registered test runs, the verdict + run_at_utc + verdict_summary are updated within 24 hours of the run completing. Verdicts are PASSED, FAILED, or PENDING. Failed pre-registrations are added to the negative-result registry at /research/negative-results.",
    "supersession_rule": "When a pre-registration is superseded by an amendment, the original entry is kept (verdict noted as superseded) and the amendment is added as a separate entry. Original entries are never removed.",
    "audit_chain_link": "Every entry's audit_chain_anchor field references the SHA-256-hash-chained run identifier in apps/web/public/research/cme/audit_log.jsonl (or paper-specific provenance log). The /research/verify page walks the chain in client-side JavaScript and renders a green stamp if every prev_hash matches its parent's row_hash."
  }
}