Rating actions

Historical record

Review recorded market-verdict changes and published wallet-cohort turnover.

Market rating surfaces were frozen on 2026-09-05. These are dated experimental assessments, not current market ratings or forecasts. No new market items are recorded.

21 market verdict changes shown, from 21 detected among the 600 of 1950 markets that had repeat assessment runs in the loaded window (2026-08-30 to 2026-09-05). Newest at the top.

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21 of 21 loaded changes shown · newest first

2026-09-05 13:30 UTCMarketpolymarket
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
Do not citeDiscountscore 63.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-09-04 23:03 UTC
Read as too weak to rely on without heavy discounting.
View market
2026-09-05 01:01 UTCMarketpolymarket
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
DiscountDo not citescore 53.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-09-04 23:03 UTC
Read as too thin or too unreliable to use.
View market
2026-09-05 01:01 UTCMarketpolymarket
US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
DiscountDo not citescore 61.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-09-04 23:30 UTC
Read as too thin or too unreliable to use.
View market
2026-09-05 00:00 UTCMarketpolymarket
US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
DiscountDo not citescore 65.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-09-04 23:30 UTC
Read as too thin or too unreliable to use.
View market
2026-09-04 21:00 UTCMarketpolymarket
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-04?
Do not citeDiscountscore 61.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-09-03 09:30 UTC
Read as too weak to rely on without heavy discounting.
View market
2026-09-04 20:00 UTCMarketpolymarket
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
DiscountDo not citescore 73.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-09-03 23:02 UTC
Read as too thin or too unreliable to use.
View market
2026-09-04 02:00 UTCMarketpolymarket
US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jesper de Jong
Do not citeDiscountscore 68.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-09-03 15:01 UTC
Read as too weak to rely on without heavy discounting.
View market
2026-09-04 02:00 UTCMarketpolymarket
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
DiscountDo not citescore 64.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-09-03 23:30 UTC
Read as too thin or too unreliable to use.
View market
2026-09-04 01:01 UTCMarketpolymarket
US Open ATP: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Alex de Minaur
DiscountDo not citescore 65.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-09-03 23:30 UTC
Read as too thin or too unreliable to use.
View market
2026-09-03 23:02 UTCMarketpolymarket
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Do not citeDiscountscore 74.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-09-02 23:31 UTC
Read as too weak to rely on without heavy discounting.
View market
2026-09-03 22:30 UTCMarketpolymarket
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Do not citeDiscountscore 69.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-09-02 23:31 UTC
Read as too weak to rely on without heavy discounting.
View market
2026-09-03 20:31 UTCMarketpolymarket
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Do not citeDiscountscore 68.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-09-02 23:31 UTC
Read as too weak to rely on without heavy discounting.
View market
2026-09-03 09:30 UTCMarketpolymarket
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-04?
DiscountDo not citescore 72.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-09-01 12:30 UTC
Read as too thin or too unreliable to use.
View market
2026-09-03 01:00 UTCMarketpolymarket
US Open ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
DiscountDo not citescore 64.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-09-02 23:31 UTC
Read as too thin or too unreliable to use.
View market
2026-09-02 22:32 UTCMarketpolymarket
US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro
Do not citeDiscountscore 68.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-09-01 23:31 UTC
Read as too weak to rely on without heavy discounting.
View market
2026-09-01 23:31 UTCMarketpolymarket
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
DiscountDo not citescore 70.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-08-31 23:55 UTC
Read as too thin or too unreliable to use.
View market
2026-09-01 23:31 UTCMarketpolymarket
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
DiscountDo not citescore 71.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-08-31 23:55 UTC
Read as too thin or too unreliable to use.
View market
2026-09-01 12:30 UTCMarketpolymarket
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-04?
Do not citeDiscountscore 68.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-08-31 17:15 UTC
Read as too weak to rely on without heavy discounting.
View market
2026-09-01 01:45 UTCMarketpolymarket
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
DiscountDo not citescore 52.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-08-31 23:55 UTC
Read as too thin or too unreliable to use.
View market
2026-08-31 23:55 UTCMarketpolymarket
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Do not citeDiscountscore 72.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-08-30 23:15 UTC
Read as too weak to rely on without heavy discounting.
View market
2026-08-31 17:00 UTCMarketpolymarket
US Open ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Adrian Mannarino
Do not citeDiscountscore 69.0 of 100
Assessment details · previous run 2026-08-30 23:15 UTC
Read as too weak to rely on without heavy discounting.
View market

Published wallet cohort: turnover summary

0 of 50 published board slots changed hands across 40 consecutive daily snapshot pairs (2026-05-02 to 2026-06-11): 0 wallets entered, 0 left (0% turnover).

Computed from the daily published-leaderboard snapshots within the current cohort definition. Counts only: per Convexly claim policy, positive statements about an individual wallet are reserved for owner-claimed wallets, so no wallet is named in this feed.

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How this feed is built

Market items came from the append-only Market Trust v0.2 card ledger: one frozen card per market per assessment run. A verdict change is two consecutive cards for the same market with different ratings; both run timestamps are shown. The rating surfaces were frozen on 2026-09-05, so no new market items are recorded.
The loaded window covers the most recent 3000 assessment runs. Changes whose earlier run falls outside that window are not visible here, so the count shown is a lower bound for the period.
Cohort turnover is computed from the daily snapshots of the published leaderboard JSON, comparing only snapshots that share the same cohort definition so methodology changes are never counted as wallet turnover.
Machine-readable copy of this feed: /api/rating-actions.

Evidence limits and original caveats

The Market Trust rating surfaces were frozen on 2026-09-05. Verdicts recorded before then are experimental market-quality diagnostics, not investment advice, not compliance certifications, and not venue endorsements.
The forward test of the rating, filed in advance as AsPredicted #295174, returned: Market Trust tiers do not separate on resolution cleanliness. A null was one of the outcomes that filing registered, not a failure.
A verdict change is a description of two dated assessment runs for the same market. It is not a forecast and carries no view on how the market resolves.
Changes are detected between consecutive assessment runs inside the loaded window; runs older than the window are not compared, so the change count is a lower bound for the period.
Cohort items report published-leaderboard membership turnover as counts only. Per Convexly claim policy, positive statements about an individual wallet are reserved for owner-claimed wallets, so no wallet is named in this feed.
This feed is new. If few items appear, that reflects the underlying data, not a rendering gap.

Generated 2026-09-08 04:51 UTC. Cohort artifact built 2026-06-11 12:01 UTC.