Research / Macro Market Trust v0.1
Prediction markets as macro infrastructure need a trust layer.
Convexly should not become a generic financial terminal. The focused wedge is narrower: measure whether macro event-market prices are fresh, liquid, coherent, participant-aware, and tied to auditable resolution sources.
Experimental rating caveat
Market Trust Cards are experimental market-quality diagnostics, not compliance certifications or validated credit ratings.
The focus boundary
Bloomberg-level breadth is an aspiration for coverage, not a permission slip to collect every possible data feed. Macro Market Trust stays inside the core product job: make a market price readable enough to decide whether it deserves attention.
v0.1 is a mapping and diligence surface. It is not a macro forecast, not investment advice, and not a claim that Convexly has complete venue coverage.
Question
Which macro category does this market belong to?
Venue
Is the price one-venue, multi-venue, or unmapped?
Quality
How fresh, deep, wide, and participant-aware is it?
Coherence
Do related inflation, labor, rates, growth, and volatility contracts agree?
What v0.1 adds
The first version is a substrate layer: category, venue, evidence, and coherence scaffolding that can mature as data rights improve.
Macro taxonomy
A narrow category map for inflation, labor, rates, growth, volatility, policy, and crypto-macro markets.
Venue ledger mapping
A live read from existing venue rows and price snapshots, treated as a review queue rather than a final source of truth.
CME bundle queue
Linked-market checks for CPI, labor, Fed, growth, volatility, policy, and crypto-liquidity relationships.
Claim discipline
Visible caveats around incomplete participant quality, cross-venue identity, and benchmark coverage.
Macro taxonomy
This first taxonomy is deliberately practical: categories that institutions monitor year-round and that can be joined into coherence bundles later.
Inflation
CPI, core CPI, PCE, inflation prints, and inflation-path contracts.
Turns event-market prices into an expectations layer around realized price pressure.
Labor
Unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims, wage growth, and labor slack.
Connects employment surprises to policy-rate and growth-market repricing.
Rates and Fed
Fed meetings, rate cuts, rate hikes, basis-point paths, Treasury yields, and policy guidance.
Gives rate-sensitive buyers a readable event-market layer around policy paths.
Growth
GDP, recession, retail sales, PMI, ISM, earnings-cycle, and soft-landing contracts.
Separates real-economy expectations from one-off political or sports demand.
Volatility
VIX, MOVE, drawdowns, volatility thresholds, and market-stress contracts.
Makes stress expectations inspectable next to liquidity and participant-quality signals.
Policy and fiscal
Tariffs, shutdowns, debt-ceiling, budget, tax, regulatory, and fiscal-path contracts.
Connects policy-event risk to macro pricing without turning Convexly into punditry.
Crypto macro
Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETF, stablecoin, and crypto-liquidity contracts when they behave as macro risk markets.
Keeps crypto event markets in scope only when they inform cross-asset liquidity or policy expectations.
Internal tracker
Current macro markets in the venue ledger.
The tracker reads existing production venue rows and price snapshots, then classifies macro markets with a conservative keyword pass. It is a review queue, not the final taxonomy.
Inflation
10 marketsVenues: polymarket
Latest row: 2026-05-15 04:45 UTC
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?
Rates and Fed
34 marketsVenues: polymarket
Latest row: 2026-05-15 04:45 UTC
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?
Growth
5 marketsVenues: polymarket
Latest row: 2026-05-15 04:35 UTC
Canada recession before 2027?
Policy and fiscal
4 marketsVenues: polymarket
Latest row: 2026-05-15 04:35 UTC
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
Crypto macro
7 marketsVenues: polymarket
Latest row: 2026-05-15 04:45 UTC
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
2026-05-15 04:45 UTC
polymarket
Crypto macro
74.6%
0.3pp
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?
2026-05-15 04:45 UTC
polymarket
Inflation
97%
0.3pp
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?
2026-05-15 04:45 UTC
polymarket
Rates and Fed
36%
36.0pp
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027?
2026-05-15 04:45 UTC
polymarket
Rates and Fed
89.7%
12.0pp
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?
2026-05-15 04:41 UTC
polymarket
Crypto macro
4.3%
0.1pp
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
2026-05-15 04:35 UTC
polymarket
Policy and fiscal
3.1%
0.1pp
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
2026-05-15 04:35 UTC
polymarket
Rates and Fed
0.7%
0.3pp
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
2026-05-15 04:35 UTC
polymarket
Rates and Fed
73.8%
0.5pp
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
2026-05-15 04:35 UTC
polymarket
Rates and Fed
0.8%
0.6pp
Bitcoin ETF Flows on April 13?
2026-05-15 04:35 UTC
polymarket
Crypto macro
34.9%
69.8pp
Current caveats
v0.1 classification is keyword-based and should be treated as a review queue, not a venue-approved taxonomy.
Kalshi participant quality remains aggregate-only until partner data, user-authorized export, or anonymized flow is available.
Cross-venue consensus requires reviewed question mappings before any single macro probability is published.
Macro-specific Market Trust fields
These fields sit on top of generic Market Trust v0.2. They make explicit what macro buyers care about before we publish any stronger market-quality claim.
Liquidity
measuredMacro users need to know whether quoted probabilities survive meaningful size.
Current input: Venue market rows plus orderbook snapshots where the current public substrate supplies them.
Freshness
measuredMacro prints and Fed paths reprice quickly; stale quotes can look precise while carrying no current signal.
Current input: Source watermarks, latest venue_market_price_snapshots rows, and realtime-health gates.
Spread and depth
measuredA macro price is only useful if the spread and visible depth are consistent with the use case.
Current input: Top-of-book spread, midpoint, and visible orderbook depth from public REST lanes.
Participant quality
heuristicA macro market can be liquid but dominated by unknown or weakly scored flow.
Current input: Polymarket wallet score joins where public wallets are visible; Kalshi remains aggregate-only without partner data.
Blocked on: Kalshi participant aggregates, sanctioned account export, or anonymized partner flow.
Cross-venue identity
blocked data rightsA macro signal is weaker when the same entity can appear as a scored wallet on one venue and an unknown account on another.
Current input: Self-attested Convexly wallet links and public Polymarket wallet histories where available.
Blocked on: Partner-approved Kalshi account exports, privacy-safe entity mapping, or user-authorized venue linking.
Unknown-flow share
measuredMacro Trust should show how much notional cannot be attributed to scored participant cohorts.
Current input: Market Trust v0.2 coverage reports and participant-flow projections.
Venue coverage
heuristicThe same CPI or Fed question can trade differently across venues; one-venue prices should not masquerade as consensus.
Current input: Polymarket and Kalshi venue_market rows, normalized question keys, and explicit cross_venue_key where reviewed.
Blocked on: Reviewed co-listing maps and data-rights approval for redistributable venue metadata.
Resolution source
heuristicMacro contracts often hinge on exact release definitions, revisions, and cutoff times.
Current input: Market rule text and source metadata when venue APIs expose it.
Blocked on: Richer structured rule feeds from venues and a reviewed macro-source registry.
External benchmark relevance
pendingInstitutional users need to know which external series anchors the contract before treating the price as an expectations measure.
Current input: Manual benchmark hints in v0.1 research copy.
Blocked on: A benchmark registry covering BLS, BEA, Fed, Treasury, CBOE, CME, and venue rule references.
CME bundles
Candidate linked-market checks.
Macro CME should compare related contracts rather than rank one market in isolation. These bundles are the first queue for CPI, labor, Fed, growth, volatility, policy, and crypto-macro coherence checks.
Inflation print to Fed path
heuristicCPI or PCE surprise markets linked to FOMC cut, hike, or hold markets.
Check: Large inflation-up repricing should not coexist with unchanged easy-policy odds unless the bundle has a stated growth or labor offset.
Labor print to Fed path
heuristicUnemployment, payrolls, or jobless-claims markets linked to FOMC and growth markets.
Check: Labor weakness should be inspected against rate-cut odds and recession/growth markets before presenting a macro signal.
Growth stress bundle
pendingRecession or GDP markets linked to VIX/drawdown and rate-path markets.
Check: A rising recession probability should be compared to volatility and rate-cut markets before being treated as a standalone expectation.
Policy or fiscal shock to macro path
pendingTariff, shutdown, debt-ceiling, or tax-policy markets linked to inflation, growth, and rates markets.
Check: Policy shock markets should be interpreted through macro channels rather than partisan event demand.
Crypto macro liquidity
heuristicBitcoin or ETF threshold markets linked to rates, liquidity, and volatility markets.
Check: Crypto price-threshold odds should be compared with rates and volatility context before being framed as broad risk appetite.
Claims we are not making yet
The research posture matters more than sounding finished. Macro Market Trust should earn stronger language through coverage, frozen tests, and realized track record.
No best-in-class or enterprise-ready claim before coverage and third-party validation improve.
No alpha or trade recommendation claim from CME bundles without out-of-sample results.
No complete macro consensus probability until co-listed markets are reviewed and mapped.
No participant-quality claim for off-chain venues without partner-approved or user-authorized data.
Distribution draft
Low-hype X copy should point back to the work without implying that Convexly already owns macro market data breadth.
Cross-venue consensus PoCDraft 1
macro prediction markets only work if the price is readable who is trading, how deep is the book, whether related markets agree, and whether the signal has held up before
Draft 2
the interesting prediction-market question is not just what is the price it is whether the price is liquid enough, fresh enough, and coherent enough to matter
Draft 3
sports markets are loud macro markets are where prediction markets can become infrastructure: inflation, jobs, rates, volatility, policy but only if the trust layer is visible
Draft 4
a CPI market and a Fed market should not be read in isolation if prediction markets become useful for macro, the product is not more tickers. it is coherence across related contracts