Market Trust diligence packet
Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics
One of four bands, strongest warning on the right
Some quality checks score low, so the rating is held at its floor even though the price is easy to trade and the data is fresh.
Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence.
Market quality
53 / 100
Interval 24-62
Evidence confidence
medium
67 / 100
Source health
source gate passed
1 sources | dropped 0
Audit chain
76ba0f9743...
row hash verified
Memo language
Convexly rates this polymarket market "Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics" as Do not cite. Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence. Caveat to carry: Current card issue: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet. This is market diligence, not a trading instruction or proof that the market probability is correct.
Caveat to carry: Current card issue: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
How to use this packet and what changes the verdict
Use this packet when
- Use to explain why this market should stay out of a citation set for now.
- Use as a recovery checklist for source freshness, coherence, depth, or evidence gaps.
Do not use it as
- A trading instruction.
- Proof that the market probability is correct.
- A manipulation accusation or person-level identity claim.
What changes the verdict
- Clear current blocker: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Clear current blocker: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- Clear current blocker: The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
How the score adds upWhy this verdict
Why this rating
Composite 53 · Do not cite
- Coherenceheuristicweight 25.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no linked cme signal in window
- · absence of signal not proof of coherence
- · cme signal window days: 7
- · recent full provenance signals: 143
50+15.6 - Executabilitymeasuredweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability worse of spread depth
- · spread: top-of-book spread 2.0c
- · spread: spread is 29% of mid, heavy slippage on size
- · spread: pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
15+3.8 - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+17.5 - Participant flowpendingweight 20.0
Participant flow inputs exist but do not meet identity-coverage floors; descriptive only.
- · below publishable sample floor
- · current account score join
- · edge score composite descriptive not skill
- · high participant concentration
n/ano contrib - Integrity risk screenheuristicweight 10.0
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
- · top-3 wallets control 93% of notional flow
- · flow events: 10
- · distinct wallets: 10
- · wash round trips: 0
75+9.4 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
7 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hashes present
- · source watermarks healthy
100+6.3
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0.
Caveat: 1 pillar pending; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
Market identityWhat is being rated
Venue
polymarket
condition 0xddced8c82aebc5ff...
Category
Sports
used for coverage and validation breadth
Market status
active
venue-provided lifecycle state when available
Resolution rule
In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Athletics, scheduled for July 28 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
card_id: mt-v02:polymarket:0xddced8c82aebc5ff2840f853863389d9a2ea8ad9868927e46398810f5e54181a:2026-07-29
market_id: 7434923d-db97-489c-a081-5d049c61360f
venue_market_id: 0xddced8c82aebc5ff2840f853863389d9a2ea8ad9868927e46398810f5e54181a
resolution_source: https://www.mlb.com/
Audit chainReceipt and verification
Convexly stores the card payload, removes the row_hash field, canonicalizes the remaining JSON, and recomputes the SHA-256 hash. This is the bridge from a readable verdict to a buyer-reviewable audit chain.
method: market_trust_card_v0_2
row_hash: 76ba0f97430b7779ff7cc1fc1c39101e576682d252cc8bb8e262c54dcab1743c
previous_row_hash: cda78aa431090686231938fd36741ed2490b99e0db9f2286087784c184a5d7df
source_artifact_hashes: 976da28b9e5bb4fa3263995131529c96c2852bc911c3ee50e2a3fa36e6dcd182, 7a22781591853a2e3650408592ab3e290f0e59505d5a068212a8681e0af9b072
Verdict hashImmutable verdict archive
This verdict is archived as a canonical JSON object with a SHA-256 content hash. The hashed payload carries the methodology version (market_trust_card_v0_2), the canary_preview label, and a fixed boundary statement; none of them can be removed without changing the digest.
verdict archive sha256: 1b84449a8c282d707fdaa88a5fd3d4030d5db0843366ba1b5e7d702d7ff7e7ec
How to verify this hash
- Fetch the canonical archive bytes: https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0xddced8c82aebc5ff2840f853863389d9a2ea8ad9868927e46398810f5e54181a/archive?venue=polymarket&format=canonical
- Recompute the digest locally, for example: curl -s "https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0xddced8c82aebc5ff2840f853863389d9a2ea8ad9868927e46398810f5e54181a/archive?venue=polymarket&format=canonical" | shasum -a 256
- Compare your digest to archive_sha256 in the JSON response at https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0xddced8c82aebc5ff2840f853863389d9a2ea8ad9868927e46398810f5e54181a/archive?venue=polymarket. Matching digests mean the archived verdict content is byte-for-byte unchanged.
- Cross-check card_row_hash against the stored full-card receipt at https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0xddced8c82aebc5ff2840f853863389d9a2ea8ad9868927e46398810f5e54181a/verify?venue=polymarket.
Stored v0.2 cards are frozen scorecards: a re-score inserts a new row with a new card_id and records the prior receipt in previous_row_hash, and the filed calibration design binds Convexly to never mutate frozen card-time rows. The archive is a deterministic serialization of one stored row, so the same row always reproduces the same archive_sha256.
Participant and integrity screenWho shaped the price
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review. This is an integrity-risk screen, not a manipulation accusation and not person-level identity resolution.
Scored flow
87.5%
4 scored accounts
Unknown flow
12.5%
higher unknown flow lowers confidence
Participants
10
public accounts observed
Top flow share
65.1%
concentration diagnostic
Not claiming: wash-trading detection; sybil detection; manipulation-free market.
Market Fitness - pre-trade diligence (experimental)
4 of 6 diagnostics have a derivable observable on this stored card; 2 are insufficient_data. An insufficient_data row means the card lacks that input, not that the check passed.
Depth and slippage at size is a Researcher feature.
The resolution-reliability, manipulation, and basis-risk reads below are open. To see the fill cost at $100 / $1k / $10k and the executability detail, upgrade to Researcher.
Depth durability
measured
insufficient data
At-size depth and slippage detail is a Researcher feature. Upgrade at /pricing to see fill cost at size.
Observable: Executability pillar: worse-of(top-of-book spread, modeled price impact) from the latest inspected orderbook snapshot at 2026-07-29T04:00:16.632+00:00
Caveats: derived from a single orderbook snapshot; durability across time is not yet measured on this card; descriptive diagnostic from operator-set scoring that is not calibrated; no interval exists for this value, so none is shown rather than fabricated; gated detail requires researcher
Spread and price impact
measured
insufficient data
At-size depth and slippage detail is a Researcher feature. Upgrade at /pricing to see fill cost at size.
Observable: Top-of-book spread (price points) and modeled price impact for a fixed notional, from the latest inspected orderbook snapshot
Caveats: spread cost over a holding period is not modeled; this is a single-snapshot read; descriptive diagnostic from operator-set scoring that is not calibrated; no interval exists for this value, so none is shown rather than fabricated; gated detail requires researcher
Time to resolution
insufficient data
insufficient data
Venue lifecycle status on the card: active. No end date is stored.
Observable: Venue-supplied market end date or close time stored on the card
Missing input: The v0.2 card schema does not store an end date or close time, so time to resolution cannot be derived from this card.
Resolution reliability
heuristic
70 / 100 (descriptive)
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed. Resolution rule text is stored on the card.
Observable: Resolution reliability pillar: review of the resolution source (https://www.mlb.com/) and stored resolution rule text
Caveats: resolved-outcome dispute history is not joined on this card; the read covers resolution source and rule text only; descriptive diagnostic from operator-set scoring that is not calibrated; no interval exists for this value, so none is shown rather than fabricated
Concentration exposure
insufficient data
insufficient data
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review.
Observable: Participant-flow concentration from the card's integrity screen: top account flow share, unknown flow share, scored notional share
Missing input: Participant-flow concentration is not measured on this card (no scored participant rollup or no top-account flow share).
Basis-risk note
descriptive
structural note
This market settles as a binary event contract: it pays a fixed amount on one discrete resolution. Offsetting a continuous exposure with a binary payoff leaves residual basis risk by construction, and binary payoffs will generally fail the ASC 815 80-125% dollar-offset band used for hedge-accounting treatment, so a position that works as an economic offset can still be carried as mark-to-market P&L. This is a structural description of the contract type, not a statement about any party's exposure.
Observable: Contract payoff structure (binary event contract) and the resolution rule text stored on the card
Caveats: structural description of the contract type, not accounting or legal advice
Published deliberately as a component table with no single combined number. Read each component against the observable it derives from; an insufficient_data row means the stored card lacks that input, not that the check passed.
These diagnostics describe observable market-quality measurements for one market. They are not investment advice, not a trading instruction, not a recommendation to take or offset any exposure with this or any market, and not a statement about any person or their positions.
instrument_fitness_diagnostics_v0_1
Source freshness windowIngest status
The current ingest window is clean enough for review. This is freshness reporting, not an uptime SLA.
Latest orderbook
2026-07-29T04:00:16.632Z
most recent orderbook evidence attached to this card
Sources
1
1 healthy | 0 degraded | 0 stale | 0 failing
Dropped events
0
nonzero dropped events block current-language claims
Observed age
16m
oldest observed source watermark
Ingested age
16m
oldest ingest watermark
Validation stateCanary vs v1
Canary pipeline
blocked
Current card has source, evidence, or robustness issues to clear.
Public v1 promotion
4 public v1 validation gates still open.
Canary readiness says the current batch can be reviewed. Public v1 promotion waits for coverage, clean source-health windows, resolved outcomes, and formula-freeze evidence.
Read the promotion evidence contract- Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
Top caveatsWhat travels with the score
- Current card issue: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Current card issue: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- Current card issue: The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- absence of signal not proof of coherence
- artifact hashes present
- below publishable sample floor
Before stable v1Validation requirements
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
External contextNon-scoring provenance
External sports baselines are identified for review but are not part of the Market Trust score.
Sportsbook consensus line
not integrated
Roster / availability feed
not integrated
Historical base-rate benchmark
not integrated
External context is non-scoring in v0.2. Market Trust still measures market-quality substrate, not absolute truth against outside forecasts.
Full seven-pillar evidence grid
Coherence
weight 25 · heuristic
50 / 100
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
Executability
weight 20 · measured
15 / 100
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
Resolution reliability
weight 20 · heuristic
70 / 100
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
Participant flow
weight 20 · pending
pending
Participant flow inputs exist but do not meet identity-coverage floors; descriptive only.
Integrity risk screen
weight 10 · heuristic
75 / 100
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
Audit completeness
weight 5 · measured
100 / 100
7 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
Coherence blockLinked-market consistency
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
Score
50
heuristic evidence
Source refs
0
linked-market or CME artifacts
no linked cme signal in window absence of signal not proof of coherence cme signal window days:7 recent full provenance signals:143
Robustness blockSensitivity and drivers
Sensitivity verdict
moves
leave-one-out and weight perturbation
Leave-one-out
47-65
score range
Weight perturbation
51-54
score range
Drivers
3
largest weighted contributors
- Coherence is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Coherence scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Executability scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Resolution reliability is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Participant flow is pending, not fully measured.
- Integrity screen is heuristic, not fully measured.
Live market integrity read is a Trader feature
Trader ($499/mo) unlocks an on-demand participation-concentration read on any market — HHI of wallet volume shares with a confidence interval on every estimate, plus a round-trip self-churn share, computed live from the current flow tape. Descriptive structure with receipts, not a manipulation call.
Boundary of the packet
This packet is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether the market price has enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore with receipts attached.