Market Trust diligence packet
Market 0xca68152902c3581ab42feb04921b8b1cd3c4e80d06f255ae077259fca0bba15c
One-screen answer to a buyer's question: can this market price be cited, used with caveats, discounted, or ignored? The packet separates the verdict from evidence confidence, source freshness, participant quality, integrity screens, and receipts.
So what?
Monitor, but do not cite as current. The evidence is useful as an archived read until the data freshness window refreshes.
Freshness gate: Diligence packet is stale for current product claims. Treat this as archived evidence and wait for a refresh before demos or outreach.
Memo language
Convexly rates this polymarket market "Market 0xca68152902c3581ab42feb04921b8b1cd3c4e80d06f255ae077259fca0bba15c" as Do not cite. Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence. Caveat to carry: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict. This is market diligence, not a trading instruction or proof that the market probability is correct.
Caveat to carry: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict.
Why this can look counterintuitive
Why the cautious verdict despite strong measured quality? The measured market data is strong, but too much evidence is still incomplete. Convexly discounts the price until participant, resolution, freshness, or validation gaps close.
Use this packet when
- Use to explain why this market should stay out of a citation set for now.
- Use as a recovery checklist for source freshness, coherence, depth, or evidence gaps.
Do not use it as
- A trading instruction.
- Proof that the market probability is correct.
- A manipulation accusation or person-level identity claim.
What changes the verdict
- Clear hard cap: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict.
- Clear hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Clear current blocker: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
Market quality
84 / 100
Interval 29-99
Evidence confidence
insufficient
27 / 100
Source health
source gate passed
5 sources | dropped 0
Audit chain
20dad07713...
row hash verified
Why this verdict
resolution rule text missing
Why this rating
Composite 84 · Do not cite
- Coherencependingweight 20.0
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
- · missing_input
—no contrib - Liquidityheuristicweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
- · top-of-book spread 0.1c
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
95+40.7 - Depthheuristicweight 15.0
Workable depth for retail size; institutional size will move price.
- · min-side depth $23,627 within ±5c of mid
- · bid $23,627 / ask $23,627
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
75+32.1 - Resolution reliabilitypendingweight 15.0
Resolution reliability input has not been linked yet.
- · missing_resolution_metadata
—no contrib - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
- · below_publishable_sample_floor
- · high_participant_concentration
- · high_unknown_flow_share
- · insufficient_scored_accounts
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenpendingweight 10.0
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
- · top-3 wallets control 100% of notional flow
- · flow_events:1
- · distinct_wallets:1
- · wash_round_trips:0
75no contrib - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact_hashes_present
- · source_watermarks_healthy
100+14.3
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 35.0.
Caveat: 4 pillars pending — the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
What is being rated
Market identity
Venue
polymarket
condition 0xca68152902c3581a...
Category
unmapped
used for coverage and validation breadth
Market status
not supplied
venue-provided lifecycle state when available
Resolution rule
Resolution-rule text is not supplied on this packet; treat that as a caveat.
card_id: mt-v02:polymarket:0xca68152902c3581ab42feb04921b8b1cd3c4e80d06f255ae077259fca0bba15c:2026-05-19
market_id: not supplied
venue_market_id: 0xca68152902c3581ab42feb04921b8b1cd3c4e80d06f255ae077259fca0bba15c
resolution_source: not supplied
Receipt and export
Audit chain
Convexly stores the card payload, removes the row_hash field, canonicalizes the remaining JSON, and recomputes the SHA-256 hash. This is the bridge from a readable verdict to a buyer-reviewable audit chain.
method: market_trust_card_v0_2
row_hash: 20dad0771347df16fe09e07ae96b806cbd47171aab7a43c8e23fdd97948ebef2
previous_row_hash: cea9d800c477f65104017ba940df409e8a934756ff29ab9db1cfcb76fd6ed09a
source_artifact_hashes: 4e52ee590fb2d5519525937b0e3fc27334c9f6d23fdacb48ea41b87e65f8cf04, 6feff039fa3810aae8f9f5cd01c8b5f9748245e9cd87afd63576f53ff7be9dcf
Who shaped the price
Participant and integrity screen
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review. This is an integrity-risk screen, not a manipulation accusation and not person-level identity resolution.
Scored flow
0%
0 scored accounts
Unknown flow
100%
higher unknown flow lowers confidence
Participants
1
public accounts observed
Top flow share
100%
concentration diagnostic
Not claiming: wash-trading detection; sybil detection; manipulation-free market.
Ingest status
Source freshness window
The current ingest window is clean enough for review. This is freshness reporting, not an uptime SLA.
Latest orderbook
2026-05-19T13:25:16.271Z
most recent orderbook evidence attached to this card
Sources
5
4 healthy | 0 degraded | 0 stale | 0 failing
Dropped events
0
nonzero dropped events block current-language claims
Observed age
12d
oldest observed source watermark
Ingested age
12d
oldest ingest watermark
Canary vs v1
Validation state
Canary pipeline
blocked
Current card has source, evidence, or robustness issues to clear.
Public v1 promotion
4 public v1 validation gates still open.
Canary readiness says the current batch can be reviewed. Public v1 promotion waits for coverage, clean source-health windows, resolved outcomes, and formula-freeze evidence.
Read the promotion evidence contract- Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- The market's resolution-rule text is missing.
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
What travels with the score
Top caveats
- Hard cap: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict.
- Hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Current card issue: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Current card issue: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- Current card issue: The market's resolution-rule text is missing.
- artifact_hashes_present
Validation requirements
Before stable v1
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
Non-scoring provenance
External context
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
External context is non-scoring in v0.2. Market Trust still measures market-quality substrate, not absolute truth against outside forecasts.
Rating substrate
Seven-pillar evidence grid
Coherence
weight 20 · pending
pending
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
Liquidity
weight 15 · heuristic
95 / 100
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
Depth
weight 15 · heuristic
75 / 100
Workable depth for retail size; institutional size will move price.
Resolution reliability
weight 15 · pending
pending
Resolution reliability input has not been linked yet.
Participant quality
weight 20 · pending
pending
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
Integrity risk screen
weight 10 · pending
75 / 100
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
Audit completeness
weight 5 · measured
100 / 100
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
Linked-market consistency
Coherence block
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
Score
pending
pending evidence
Source refs
0
linked-market or CME artifacts
missing input
Sensitivity and drivers
Robustness block
Sensitivity verdict
stable
leave-one-out and weight perturbation
Leave-one-out
79-89
score range
Weight perturbation
84-85
score range
Drivers
3
largest weighted contributors
- Coherence is pending, not fully measured.
- Liquidity is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Depth is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Resolution reliability is pending, not fully measured.
- Participant quality is pending, not fully measured.
- Integrity screen is pending, not fully measured.
Boundary of the packet
This packet is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether the market price has enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore with receipts attached.