Market Trust diligence packet
National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek
2 of 6 pillars measured, 2 modeled by fixed rules, 2 not assessed. Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
One of four bands, strongest warning on the right
Too much of the trading came from wallets we cannot yet identify, so participant-flow coverage is uncertain.
Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence.
Market quality
67 / 100
Interval 34-77
Evidence confidence
low
51 / 100
Source health
source gate passed
1 sources | dropped 0
Audit chain
a7c8952506...
row hash verified
Memo language
Convexly rates this polymarket market "National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek" as Do not cite. Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence. Caveat to carry: participant quality pending elevated unknown flow. This is market diligence, not a trading instruction or proof that the market probability is correct.
Caveat to carry: participant quality pending elevated unknown flow.
How to cite this market
Per Convexly Market Trust, an experimental market-quality diagnostic served as a research preview (status: canary_preview), the polymarket market "National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek" is rated Do not cite (market quality 67 / 100; Interval 34-77) as of 2026-08-08T19:15:20.123Z (UTC). Caveat to carry: participant quality pending elevated unknown flow. Packet: https://www.convexly.app/market-trust/packet/polymarket/0xc0d4b45343bc78ae8da917972e18cfbe455e3db50fb3019f85477949bfd1b8e0. Verdict row hash (SHA-256): a7c895250691e20fff029ab4b342086fb19e8538cf4521888b137aeb74166601. This citation is market diligence, not investment advice, not a trading instruction, not a forecast, and not proof that the market probability is correct.
One unit: quote it whole, so the verdict travels with its caveat, its date and its receipt.
How to use this packet and what changes the verdict
Use this packet when
- Use to explain why this market should stay out of a citation set for now.
- Use as a recovery checklist for source freshness, coherence, depth, or evidence gaps.
Do not use it as
- A trading instruction.
- Proof that the market probability is correct.
- A manipulation accusation or person-level identity claim.
What changes the verdict
- Clear hard cap: participant quality pending elevated unknown flow.
- Clear current blocker: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Clear current blocker: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
How the score adds upWhy this verdict
Why this rating
Composite 67 · Do not cite
Measurement certainty
Low
2 measured · 2 modeled · 2 not assessed
Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
- CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no linked cme signal in window
- · absence of signal not proof of coherence
- · cme signal window days: 7
- · recent full provenance signals: 250
50+20.8 - ExecutabilityNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability worse of spread depth
- · spread: one_sided_orderbook_boundary
- · spread: direct_bid_ask_spread_missing
- · spread: visible $1k ladder slippage 0.07pp
65not assessed - Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+23.3 - Participant flowNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0
Participant flow inputs exist but do not meet identity-coverage floors; descriptive only.
- · below publishable sample floor
- · current account score join
- · edge score composite descriptive not skill
- · high unknown flow share
not assessednot assessed - Integrity risk screenMeasuredweight 10.0
Flow patterns clean; no wash-trade or coordination signals.
- · 2 possible wash round-trips detected
- · flow events: 150
- · distinct wallets: 107
- · wash round trips: 2
90+15.0 - Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hashes present
- · source watermarks healthy
100+8.3
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 60.0.
Caveat: 2 pillars not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
Market identityWhat is being rated
Venue
polymarket
condition 0xc0d4b45343bc78ae...
Category
Tennis
used for coverage and validation breadth
Market status
active
venue-provided lifecycle state when available
Resolution rule
This market refers to the tennis match between Marta Kostyuk and Iga Swiatek in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 9, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marta Kostyuk' if Marta Kostyuk advances against Iga Swiatek. This market will resolve to 'Iga Swiatek' if Iga Swiatek advances against Marta Kostyuk. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules as stated by the venue, reproduced verbatim; not independently reviewed or endorsed by Convexly.
card_id: mt-v02:polymarket:0xc0d4b45343bc78ae8da917972e18cfbe455e3db50fb3019f85477949bfd1b8e0:2026-08-08
market_id: b11a179b-14c1-45a6-bbd9-a62605258a22
venue_market_id: 0xc0d4b45343bc78ae8da917972e18cfbe455e3db50fb3019f85477949bfd1b8e0
resolution_source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Audit chainReceipt and verification
Convexly stores the card payload, removes the row_hash field, canonicalizes the remaining JSON, and recomputes the SHA-256 hash. This is the bridge from a readable verdict to a buyer-reviewable audit chain.
method: market_trust_card_v0_2
row_hash: a7c895250691e20fff029ab4b342086fb19e8538cf4521888b137aeb74166601
previous_row_hash: 45c124120854da376fba274c93fd6d0d1d2394b4b22cea5800a641d90ad29288
source_artifact_hashes: a4541179b44bcc2ca0b8ab539a4353cae1ce8618e8a8ffab744555d9da35b3d6, 4b0afd2d2ba5332071f050809bce02f5c138e692fbd651b8edb0a0896effa1b6
Verdict hashImmutable verdict archive
This verdict is archived as a canonical JSON object with a SHA-256 content hash. The hashed payload carries the methodology version (market_trust_card_v0_2), the canary_preview label, and a fixed boundary statement; none of them can be removed without changing the digest.
verdict archive sha256: c545d6d3eb7965e45fe88b502ff0bbce643f33b3849bcf518fd8771c36c0e7d9
How to verify this hash
- Fetch the canonical archive bytes: https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0xc0d4b45343bc78ae8da917972e18cfbe455e3db50fb3019f85477949bfd1b8e0/archive?venue=polymarket&format=canonical
- Recompute the digest locally, for example: curl -s "https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0xc0d4b45343bc78ae8da917972e18cfbe455e3db50fb3019f85477949bfd1b8e0/archive?venue=polymarket&format=canonical" | shasum -a 256
- Compare your digest to archive_sha256 in the JSON response at https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0xc0d4b45343bc78ae8da917972e18cfbe455e3db50fb3019f85477949bfd1b8e0/archive?venue=polymarket. Matching digests mean the archived verdict content is byte-for-byte unchanged.
- Cross-check card_row_hash against the stored full-card receipt at https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0xc0d4b45343bc78ae8da917972e18cfbe455e3db50fb3019f85477949bfd1b8e0/verify?venue=polymarket.
Stored v0.2 cards are frozen scorecards: a re-score inserts a new row with a new card_id and records the prior receipt in previous_row_hash, and the filed calibration design binds Convexly to never mutate frozen card-time rows. The archive is a deterministic serialization of one stored row, so the same row always reproduces the same archive_sha256.
Participant and integrity screenWho shaped the price
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review. This is an integrity-risk screen, not a manipulation accusation and not person-level identity resolution.
Scored flow
25.4%
26 scored accounts
Unknown flow
74.6%
higher unknown flow lowers confidence
Participants
107
public accounts observed
Top flow share
18.5%
concentration diagnostic
Not claiming: wash-trading detection; sybil detection; manipulation-free market.
Market Fitness - pre-trade diligence (experimental)
2 of 6 diagnostics have a derivable observable on this stored card; 4 are insufficient_data. An insufficient_data row means the card lacks that input, not that the check passed.
Depth and slippage at size is a Researcher feature.
The resolution-reliability, manipulation, and basis-risk reads below are open. To see the fill cost at $100 / $1k / $10k and the executability detail, upgrade to Researcher.
Depth durability
insufficient data
insufficient data
At-size depth and slippage detail is a Researcher feature. Upgrade at /pricing to see fill cost at size.
Observable: Executability pillar: worse-of(top-of-book spread, modeled price impact) from the latest inspected orderbook snapshot at 2026-08-08T19:15:11.005+00:00
Missing input: The stored card has no measured or heuristic executability pillar value (no current orderbook spread or depth input).
Caveats: gated detail requires researcher
Spread and price impact
insufficient data
insufficient data
At-size depth and slippage detail is a Researcher feature. Upgrade at /pricing to see fill cost at size.
Observable: Top-of-book spread (price points) and modeled price impact for a fixed notional, from the latest inspected orderbook snapshot
Missing input: The stored card has no current orderbook spread or modeled price-impact input.
Caveats: gated detail requires researcher
Time to resolution
insufficient data
insufficient data
Venue lifecycle status on the card: active. No end date is stored.
Observable: Venue-supplied market end date or close time stored on the card
Missing input: The v0.2 card schema does not store an end date or close time, so time to resolution cannot be derived from this card.
Resolution reliability
heuristic
70 / 100 (descriptive)
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed. Resolution rule text is stored on the card.
Observable: Resolution reliability pillar: review of the resolution source (https://www.wtatennis.com/scores) and stored resolution rule text
Caveats: resolved-outcome dispute history is not joined on this card; the read covers resolution source and rule text only; descriptive diagnostic from operator-set scoring that is not calibrated; no interval exists for this value, so none is shown rather than fabricated
Concentration exposure
insufficient data
insufficient data
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review.
Observable: Participant-flow concentration from the card's integrity screen: top account flow share, unknown flow share, scored notional share
Missing input: Participant-flow concentration is not measured on this card (no scored participant rollup or no top-account flow share).
Basis-risk note
descriptive
structural note
This market settles as a binary event contract: it pays a fixed amount on one discrete resolution. Offsetting a continuous exposure with a binary payoff leaves residual basis risk by construction, and binary payoffs will generally fail the ASC 815 80-125% dollar-offset band used for hedge-accounting treatment, so a position that works as an economic offset can still be carried as mark-to-market P&L. This is a structural description of the contract type, not a statement about any party's exposure.
Observable: Contract payoff structure (binary event contract) and the resolution rule text stored on the card
Caveats: structural description of the contract type, not accounting or legal advice
Published deliberately as a component table with no single combined number. Read each component against the observable it derives from; an insufficient_data row means the stored card lacks that input, not that the check passed.
These diagnostics describe observable market-quality measurements for one market. They are not investment advice, not a trading instruction, not a recommendation to take or offset any exposure with this or any market, and not a statement about any person or their positions.
instrument_fitness_diagnostics_v0_1
Source freshness windowIngest status
The current ingest window is clean enough for review. This is freshness reporting, not an uptime SLA.
Latest orderbook
2026-08-08T19:15:11.005Z
most recent orderbook evidence attached to this card
Sources
1
1 healthy | 0 degraded | 0 stale | 0 failing
Dropped events
0
nonzero dropped events block current-language claims
Observed age
3s
oldest observed source watermark
Ingested age
653ms
oldest ingest watermark
Validation stateCanary vs v1
Canary pipeline
blocked
Current card has source, evidence, or robustness issues to clear.
Public v1 promotion
4 public v1 validation gates still open.
Canary readiness says the current batch can be reviewed. Public v1 promotion waits for coverage, clean source-health windows, resolved outcomes, and formula-freeze evidence.
Read the promotion evidence contract- Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
Top caveatsWhat travels with the score
- Hard cap: participant quality pending elevated unknown flow.
- Current card issue: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Current card issue: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- Current card issue: The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- 2 possible wash round-trips detected
- absence of signal not proof of coherence
Before stable v1Validation requirements
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
External contextNon-scoring provenance
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
External context is non-scoring in v0.2. Market Trust still measures market-quality substrate, not absolute truth against outside forecasts.
Full seven-pillar evidence grid
Coherence
weight 25 · heuristic
50 / 100
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
Executability
weight 20 · pending
65 / 100
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
Resolution reliability
weight 20 · heuristic
70 / 100
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
Participant flow
weight 20 · pending
pending
Participant flow inputs exist but do not meet identity-coverage floors; descriptive only.
Integrity risk screen
weight 10 · measured
90 / 100
Flow patterns clean; no wash-trade or coordination signals.
Audit completeness
weight 5 · measured
100 / 100
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
Coherence blockLinked-market consistency
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
Score
50
heuristic evidence
Source refs
0
linked-market or CME artifacts
no linked cme signal in window absence of signal not proof of coherence cme signal window days:7 recent full provenance signals:250
Robustness blockSensitivity and drivers
Sensitivity verdict
moves
leave-one-out and weight perturbation
Leave-one-out
64-75
score range
Weight perturbation
66-68
score range
Drivers
3
largest weighted contributors
- Coherence is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Coherence scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Executability is pending, not fully measured.
- Resolution reliability is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Participant flow is pending, not fully measured.
Live market integrity read is a Trader feature
Trader ($499/mo) unlocks an on-demand participation-concentration read on any market — HHI of wallet volume shares with a confidence interval on every estimate, plus a round-trip self-churn share, computed live from the current flow tape. Descriptive structure with receipts, not a manipulation call.
Boundary of the packet
This packet is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether the market price has enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore with receipts attached.