Market Trust diligence packet
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds
One of four bands, strongest warning on the right
Participant-flow coverage is measured, but unknown flow remains material.
Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence.
Market quality
63 / 100
Interval 40-71
Evidence confidence
medium
63 / 100
Source health
source gate passed
1 sources | dropped 0
Audit chain
da233bfe4f...
row hash verified
Memo language
Convexly rates this polymarket market "Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds" as Do not cite. Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence. Caveat to carry: Participant-flow coverage is measured, but unknown flow remains material. This is market diligence, not a trading instruction or proof that the market probability is correct.
Caveat to carry: Participant-flow coverage is measured, but unknown flow remains material.
How to use this packet and what changes the verdict
Use this packet when
- Use to explain why this market should stay out of a citation set for now.
- Use as a recovery checklist for source freshness, coherence, depth, or evidence gaps.
Do not use it as
- A trading instruction.
- Proof that the market probability is correct.
- A manipulation accusation or person-level identity claim.
What changes the verdict
- Clear hard cap: Participant-flow coverage is measured, but unknown flow remains material.
- Clear current blocker: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Clear current blocker: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
How the score adds upWhy this verdict
Why this rating
Composite 63 · Do not cite
- Coherenceheuristicweight 25.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no linked cme signal in window
- · absence of signal not proof of coherence
- · cme signal window days: 7
- · recent full provenance signals: 143
50+20.8 - Executabilitypendingweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability worse of spread depth
- · spread: one_sided_orderbook_boundary
- · spread: direct_bid_ask_spread_missing
- · spread: visible $1k ladder slippage 0pp
65no contrib - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+23.3 - Participant flowmeasuredweight 20.0
17/61 accounts identifiable; identity coverage 53%; top-account flow share 38%; net directional flow net sell 20%. Descriptive participant flow only; not a skill or smart-money signal.
- · below publishable sample floor
- · edge score composite descriptive not skill
- · high participant concentration
- · unknown or low sample flow present
n/ano contrib - Integrity risk screenmeasuredweight 10.0
Heavy concentration / wash-pattern signals; treat with caution.
- · wash-pattern round-trips on 7.4% of flow
- · top-3 wallets control 57% of notional flow
- · flow events: 81
- · distinct wallets: 61
55+9.2 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hashes present
- · source watermarks healthy
100+8.3
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 60.0.
Caveat: 1 pillar pending; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
Market identityWhat is being rated
Venue
polymarket
condition 0x5428aa81f6377d5f...
Category
Sports
used for coverage and validation breadth
Market status
active
venue-provided lifecycle state when available
Resolution rule
In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for July 27 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
card_id: mt-v02:polymarket:0x5428aa81f6377d5fe8c8df2ef7b861c9f1ef67b23b77e725acf499b44217f3e6:2026-07-28
market_id: cc63d023-307a-4782-9edf-450f1f64f9e7
venue_market_id: 0x5428aa81f6377d5fe8c8df2ef7b861c9f1ef67b23b77e725acf499b44217f3e6
resolution_source: https://www.mlb.com/
Audit chainReceipt and verification
Convexly stores the card payload, removes the row_hash field, canonicalizes the remaining JSON, and recomputes the SHA-256 hash. This is the bridge from a readable verdict to a buyer-reviewable audit chain.
method: market_trust_card_v0_2
row_hash: da233bfe4f43a929f9492058058409bd01b93ebe14ae1b7de55e807b9f05826d
previous_row_hash: 681a00ce10d6350121520a547e448f82590f93c2bb42b791e13c3fcb0cebb490
source_artifact_hashes: 05233d625bb08e46bc5fcf5dd1e8c6bcf1677f47f595a40f5503b4e636ce1732, ea336a92cc46a44450f7fd2459e3f931f0dc541b91c2f12cb9d4d453477a3a92
Verdict hashImmutable verdict archive
This verdict is archived as a canonical JSON object with a SHA-256 content hash. The hashed payload carries the methodology version (market_trust_card_v0_2), the canary_preview label, and a fixed boundary statement; none of them can be removed without changing the digest.
verdict archive sha256: 089343ea429564a0360438a17afbae68abb84510fc6ec3336bb28ec91ea2cbdc
How to verify this hash
- Fetch the canonical archive bytes: https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x5428aa81f6377d5fe8c8df2ef7b861c9f1ef67b23b77e725acf499b44217f3e6/archive?venue=polymarket&format=canonical
- Recompute the digest locally, for example: curl -s "https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x5428aa81f6377d5fe8c8df2ef7b861c9f1ef67b23b77e725acf499b44217f3e6/archive?venue=polymarket&format=canonical" | shasum -a 256
- Compare your digest to archive_sha256 in the JSON response at https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x5428aa81f6377d5fe8c8df2ef7b861c9f1ef67b23b77e725acf499b44217f3e6/archive?venue=polymarket. Matching digests mean the archived verdict content is byte-for-byte unchanged.
- Cross-check card_row_hash against the stored full-card receipt at https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x5428aa81f6377d5fe8c8df2ef7b861c9f1ef67b23b77e725acf499b44217f3e6/verify?venue=polymarket.
Stored v0.2 cards are frozen scorecards: a re-score inserts a new row with a new card_id and records the prior receipt in previous_row_hash, and the filed calibration design binds Convexly to never mutate frozen card-time rows. The archive is a deterministic serialization of one stored row, so the same row always reproduces the same archive_sha256.
Participant and integrity screenWho shaped the price
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review. This is an integrity-risk screen, not a manipulation accusation and not person-level identity resolution.
Scored flow
53%
17 scored accounts
Unknown flow
47%
higher unknown flow lowers confidence
Participants
61
public accounts observed
Top flow share
37.7%
concentration diagnostic
Not claiming: wash-trading detection; sybil detection; manipulation-free market.
Market Fitness - pre-trade diligence (experimental)
3 of 6 diagnostics have a derivable observable on this stored card; 3 are insufficient_data. An insufficient_data row means the card lacks that input, not that the check passed.
Depth and slippage at size is a Researcher feature.
The resolution-reliability, manipulation, and basis-risk reads below are open. To see the fill cost at $100 / $1k / $10k and the executability detail, upgrade to Researcher.
Depth durability
insufficient data
insufficient data
At-size depth and slippage detail is a Researcher feature. Upgrade at /pricing to see fill cost at size.
Observable: Executability pillar: worse-of(top-of-book spread, modeled price impact) from the latest inspected orderbook snapshot at 2026-07-28T22:14:13.195+00:00
Missing input: The stored card has no measured or heuristic executability pillar value (no current orderbook spread or depth input).
Caveats: gated detail requires researcher
Spread and price impact
insufficient data
insufficient data
At-size depth and slippage detail is a Researcher feature. Upgrade at /pricing to see fill cost at size.
Observable: Top-of-book spread (price points) and modeled price impact for a fixed notional, from the latest inspected orderbook snapshot
Missing input: The stored card has no current orderbook spread or modeled price-impact input.
Caveats: gated detail requires researcher
Time to resolution
insufficient data
insufficient data
Venue lifecycle status on the card: active. No end date is stored.
Observable: Venue-supplied market end date or close time stored on the card
Missing input: The v0.2 card schema does not store an end date or close time, so time to resolution cannot be derived from this card.
Resolution reliability
heuristic
70 / 100 (descriptive)
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed. Resolution rule text is stored on the card.
Observable: Resolution reliability pillar: review of the resolution source (https://www.mlb.com/) and stored resolution rule text
Caveats: resolved-outcome dispute history is not joined on this card; the read covers resolution source and rule text only; descriptive diagnostic from operator-set scoring that is not calibrated; no interval exists for this value, so none is shown rather than fabricated
Concentration exposure
measured
37.7%
Top account flow share 37.7%; unknown flow share 47%; scored notional share 53%. Flags: high participant concentration, unknown or low sample flow present.
Observable: Participant-flow concentration from the card's integrity screen: top account flow share, unknown flow share, scored notional share
Caveats: concentration diagnostic, not a manipulation finding and not person-level identity resolution; descriptive diagnostic from operator-set scoring that is not calibrated; no interval exists for this value, so none is shown rather than fabricated
Basis-risk note
descriptive
structural note
This market settles as a binary event contract: it pays a fixed amount on one discrete resolution. Offsetting a continuous exposure with a binary payoff leaves residual basis risk by construction, and binary payoffs will generally fail the ASC 815 80-125% dollar-offset band used for hedge-accounting treatment, so a position that works as an economic offset can still be carried as mark-to-market P&L. This is a structural description of the contract type, not a statement about any party's exposure.
Observable: Contract payoff structure (binary event contract) and the resolution rule text stored on the card
Caveats: structural description of the contract type, not accounting or legal advice
Published deliberately as a component table with no single combined number. Read each component against the observable it derives from; an insufficient_data row means the stored card lacks that input, not that the check passed.
These diagnostics describe observable market-quality measurements for one market. They are not investment advice, not a trading instruction, not a recommendation to take or offset any exposure with this or any market, and not a statement about any person or their positions.
instrument_fitness_diagnostics_v0_1
Source freshness windowIngest status
The current ingest window is clean enough for review. This is freshness reporting, not an uptime SLA.
Latest orderbook
2026-07-28T22:14:13.195Z
most recent orderbook evidence attached to this card
Sources
1
1 healthy | 0 degraded | 0 stale | 0 failing
Dropped events
0
nonzero dropped events block current-language claims
Observed age
2s
oldest observed source watermark
Ingested age
655ms
oldest ingest watermark
Validation stateCanary vs v1
Canary pipeline
blocked
Current card has source, evidence, or robustness issues to clear.
Public v1 promotion
4 public v1 validation gates still open.
Canary readiness says the current batch can be reviewed. Public v1 promotion waits for coverage, clean source-health windows, resolved outcomes, and formula-freeze evidence.
Read the promotion evidence contract- Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
Top caveatsWhat travels with the score
- Hard cap: Participant-flow coverage is measured, but unknown flow remains material.
- Current card issue: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Current card issue: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- Current card issue: The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- absence of signal not proof of coherence
- artifact hashes present
Before stable v1Validation requirements
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
External contextNon-scoring provenance
External sports baselines are identified for review but are not part of the Market Trust score.
Sportsbook consensus line
not integrated
Roster / availability feed
not integrated
Historical base-rate benchmark
not integrated
External context is non-scoring in v0.2. Market Trust still measures market-quality substrate, not absolute truth against outside forecasts.
Full seven-pillar evidence grid
Coherence
weight 25 · heuristic
50 / 100
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
Executability
weight 20 · pending
65 / 100
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
Resolution reliability
weight 20 · heuristic
70 / 100
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
Participant flow
weight 20 · measured
pending
17/61 accounts identifiable; identity coverage 53%; top-account flow share 38%; net directional flow net sell 20%. Descriptive participant flow only; not a skill or smart-money signal.
Integrity risk screen
weight 10 · measured
55 / 100
Heavy concentration / wash-pattern signals; treat with caution.
Audit completeness
weight 5 · measured
100 / 100
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
Coherence blockLinked-market consistency
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
Score
50
heuristic evidence
Source refs
0
linked-market or CME artifacts
no linked cme signal in window absence of signal not proof of coherence cme signal window days:7 recent full provenance signals:143
Robustness blockSensitivity and drivers
Sensitivity verdict
moves
leave-one-out and weight perturbation
Leave-one-out
60-68
score range
Weight perturbation
62-63
score range
Drivers
3
largest weighted contributors
- Coherence is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Coherence scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Executability is pending, not fully measured.
- Resolution reliability is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Integrity screen scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
Live market integrity read is a Trader feature
Trader ($499/mo) unlocks an on-demand participation-concentration read on any market — HHI of wallet volume shares with a confidence interval on every estimate, plus a round-trip self-churn share, computed live from the current flow tape. Descriptive structure with receipts, not a manipulation call.
Boundary of the packet
This packet is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether the market price has enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore with receipts attached.