Market Trust diligence packet
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30?
2 of 6 pillars measured, 2 modeled by fixed rules, 2 not assessed. Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
One of four bands, strongest warning on the right
Some quality checks are missing complete source receipts, so the rating is held back until they fill in.
Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence.
Market quality
40 / 100
Interval 0-50
Evidence confidence
low
38 / 100
Source health
source gate passed
1 sources | dropped 0
Audit chain
4543895c02...
row hash verified
Memo language
Convexly rates this polymarket market "Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30?" as Do not cite. Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence. Caveat to carry: Some measured pillars are missing complete source artifacts. This is market diligence, not a trading instruction or proof that the market probability is correct.
Caveat to carry: Some measured pillars are missing complete source artifacts.
How to cite this market
Per Convexly Market Trust, an experimental market-quality diagnostic served as a research preview (status: canary_preview), the polymarket market "Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30?" is rated Do not cite (market quality 40 / 100; Interval 0-50) as of 2026-08-08T03:30:19.514Z (UTC). Caveat to carry: Some measured pillars are missing complete source artifacts. Packet: https://www.convexly.app/market-trust/packet/polymarket/0x118415783fe0fc53e08f50308e8cb5fc012e5438d59fe16576e65f4ee7d24529. Verdict row hash (SHA-256): 4543895c02103b063cc337fabe3e6c3d09576546fca5dd12301ee3b56c21c5fc. This citation is market diligence, not investment advice, not a trading instruction, not a forecast, and not proof that the market probability is correct.
One unit: quote it whole, so the verdict travels with its caveat, its date and its receipt.
How to use this packet and what changes the verdict
Use this packet when
- Use to explain why this market should stay out of a citation set for now.
- Use as a recovery checklist for source freshness, coherence, depth, or evidence gaps.
Do not use it as
- A trading instruction.
- Proof that the market probability is correct.
- A manipulation accusation or person-level identity claim.
What changes the verdict
- Clear hard cap: Some measured pillars are missing complete source artifacts.
- Clear current blocker: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Clear current blocker: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
How the score adds upWhy this verdict
Why this rating
Composite 40 · Do not cite
Measurement certainty
Low
2 measured · 2 modeled · 2 not assessed
Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
- CoherenceMeasuredlow readingweight 25.0
1 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signal linked to this condition; 5 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
- · full provenance cme signal linked
- · signal price observations linked
- · no observed checkpoint yet
30+10.7 - ExecutabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability worse of spread depth
- · spread: top-of-book spread 63.0c
- · spread: spread is 130% of mid, heavy slippage on size
- · spread: pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
10+2.9 - Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+20.0 - Participant flowNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0
No participant flow rollup materialized yet.
- · participant flow pending
not assessednot assessed - Integrity risk screenNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 10.0
No participant concentration rollup materialized yet.
- · missing input
not assessednot assessed - Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 1 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hash missing
- · source watermarks healthy
85+6.1
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0.
Caveat: 2 pillars not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
Market identityWhat is being rated
Venue
polymarket
condition 0x118415783fe0fc53...
Category
Brazil
used for coverage and validation breadth
Market status
active
venue-provided lifecycle state when available
Resolution rule
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules as stated by the venue, reproduced verbatim; not independently reviewed or endorsed by Convexly.
card_id: mt-v02:polymarket:0x118415783fe0fc53e08f50308e8cb5fc012e5438d59fe16576e65f4ee7d24529:2026-08-08
market_id: 4ddcbb44-4e03-4204-837f-fd58b8810ea1
venue_market_id: 0x118415783fe0fc53e08f50308e8cb5fc012e5438d59fe16576e65f4ee7d24529
resolution_source: 0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7
Audit chainReceipt and verification
Convexly stores the card payload, removes the row_hash field, canonicalizes the remaining JSON, and recomputes the SHA-256 hash. This is the bridge from a readable verdict to a buyer-reviewable audit chain.
method: market_trust_card_v0_2
row_hash: 4543895c02103b063cc337fabe3e6c3d09576546fca5dd12301ee3b56c21c5fc
previous_row_hash: 4fa3bb2c0e96d10d59cd5588f5a03e00a2cc6e3b9b52af8887d42c2705dd20d5
source_artifact_hashes: 6a9dee4ee8a91b44bf081a196d406e8fd678c801f0f3de7c7550b8c96e0231e4, e04d20efa6c5dd6d5fcc52115845f75d1052c6f35e507a52fc9305ca428316db
Verdict hashImmutable verdict archive
This verdict is archived as a canonical JSON object with a SHA-256 content hash. The hashed payload carries the methodology version (market_trust_card_v0_2), the canary_preview label, and a fixed boundary statement; none of them can be removed without changing the digest.
verdict archive sha256: 07c42e3bab7b3567df29eae7725d12592c02af9888c28e3f27cf99c382959a35
How to verify this hash
- Fetch the canonical archive bytes: https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x118415783fe0fc53e08f50308e8cb5fc012e5438d59fe16576e65f4ee7d24529/archive?venue=polymarket&format=canonical
- Recompute the digest locally, for example: curl -s "https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x118415783fe0fc53e08f50308e8cb5fc012e5438d59fe16576e65f4ee7d24529/archive?venue=polymarket&format=canonical" | shasum -a 256
- Compare your digest to archive_sha256 in the JSON response at https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x118415783fe0fc53e08f50308e8cb5fc012e5438d59fe16576e65f4ee7d24529/archive?venue=polymarket. Matching digests mean the archived verdict content is byte-for-byte unchanged.
- Cross-check card_row_hash against the stored full-card receipt at https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x118415783fe0fc53e08f50308e8cb5fc012e5438d59fe16576e65f4ee7d24529/verify?venue=polymarket.
Stored v0.2 cards are frozen scorecards: a re-score inserts a new row with a new card_id and records the prior receipt in previous_row_hash, and the filed calibration design binds Convexly to never mutate frozen card-time rows. The archive is a deterministic serialization of one stored row, so the same row always reproduces the same archive_sha256.
Participant and integrity screenWho shaped the price
Participant flow for this market could not be read to the end of the record, so no concentration or identity-coverage figure is published and no concentration flag is raised. This is an integrity-risk screen, not a manipulation accusation and not person-level identity resolution.
Scored flow
unknown
scored accounts unknown
Unknown flow
unknown
higher unknown flow lowers confidence
Participants
unknown
public accounts observed
Top flow share
unknown
concentration diagnostic
Not claiming: wash-trading detection; sybil detection; manipulation-free market; participant concentration measured over the whole record.
Market Fitness - pre-trade diligence (experimental)
4 of 6 diagnostics have a derivable observable on this stored card; 2 are insufficient_data. An insufficient_data row means the card lacks that input, not that the check passed.
Depth and slippage at size is a Researcher feature.
The resolution-reliability, manipulation, and basis-risk reads below are open. To see the fill cost at $100 / $1k / $10k and the executability detail, upgrade to Researcher.
Depth durability
heuristic
insufficient data
At-size depth and slippage detail is a Researcher feature. Upgrade at /pricing to see fill cost at size.
Observable: Executability pillar: worse-of(top-of-book spread, modeled price impact) from the latest inspected orderbook snapshot at 2026-08-08T03:30:11.202+00:00
Caveats: derived from a single orderbook snapshot; durability across time is not yet measured on this card; descriptive diagnostic from operator-set scoring that is not calibrated; no interval exists for this value, so none is shown rather than fabricated; gated detail requires researcher
Spread and price impact
heuristic
insufficient data
At-size depth and slippage detail is a Researcher feature. Upgrade at /pricing to see fill cost at size.
Observable: Top-of-book spread (price points) and modeled price impact for a fixed notional, from the latest inspected orderbook snapshot
Caveats: spread cost over a holding period is not modeled; this is a single-snapshot read; descriptive diagnostic from operator-set scoring that is not calibrated; no interval exists for this value, so none is shown rather than fabricated; gated detail requires researcher
Time to resolution
insufficient data
insufficient data
Venue lifecycle status on the card: active. No end date is stored.
Observable: Venue-supplied market end date or close time stored on the card
Missing input: The v0.2 card schema does not store an end date or close time, so time to resolution cannot be derived from this card.
Resolution reliability
heuristic
70 / 100 (descriptive)
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed. Resolution rule text is stored on the card.
Observable: Resolution reliability pillar: review of the resolution source (0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7) and stored resolution rule text
Caveats: resolved-outcome dispute history is not joined on this card; the read covers resolution source and rule text only; descriptive diagnostic from operator-set scoring that is not calibrated; no interval exists for this value, so none is shown rather than fabricated
Concentration exposure
insufficient data
insufficient data
Participant-flow manipulation screens are pending.
Observable: Participant-flow concentration from the card's integrity screen: top account flow share, unknown flow share, scored notional share
Missing input: Participant-flow concentration is not measured on this card (no scored participant rollup or no top-account flow share).
Basis-risk note
descriptive
structural note
This market settles as a binary event contract: it pays a fixed amount on one discrete resolution. Offsetting a continuous exposure with a binary payoff leaves residual basis risk by construction, and binary payoffs will generally fail the ASC 815 80-125% dollar-offset band used for hedge-accounting treatment, so a position that works as an economic offset can still be carried as mark-to-market P&L. This is a structural description of the contract type, not a statement about any party's exposure.
Observable: Contract payoff structure (binary event contract) and the resolution rule text stored on the card
Caveats: structural description of the contract type, not accounting or legal advice
Published deliberately as a component table with no single combined number. Read each component against the observable it derives from; an insufficient_data row means the stored card lacks that input, not that the check passed.
These diagnostics describe observable market-quality measurements for one market. They are not investment advice, not a trading instruction, not a recommendation to take or offset any exposure with this or any market, and not a statement about any person or their positions.
instrument_fitness_diagnostics_v0_1
Source freshness windowIngest status
The current ingest window is clean enough for review. This is freshness reporting, not an uptime SLA.
Latest orderbook
2026-08-08T03:30:11.202Z
most recent orderbook evidence attached to this card
Sources
1
1 healthy | 0 degraded | 0 stale | 0 failing
Dropped events
0
nonzero dropped events block current-language claims
Observed age
4s
oldest observed source watermark
Ingested age
744ms
oldest ingest watermark
Validation stateCanary vs v1
Canary pipeline
blocked
Current card has source, evidence, or robustness issues to clear.
Public v1 promotion
4 public v1 validation gates still open.
Canary readiness says the current batch can be reviewed. Public v1 promotion waits for coverage, clean source-health windows, resolved outcomes, and formula-freeze evidence.
Read the promotion evidence contract- Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
Top caveatsWhat travels with the score
- Hard cap: Some measured pillars are missing complete source artifacts.
- Current card issue: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Current card issue: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- Current card issue: The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- artifact hash missing
- depth:bid $0 / ask $0
Before stable v1Validation requirements
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
External contextNon-scoring provenance
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
External context is non-scoring in v0.2. Market Trust still measures market-quality substrate, not absolute truth against outside forecasts.
Full seven-pillar evidence grid
Coherence
weight 25 · measured
30 / 100
1 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signal linked to this condition; 5 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
Executability
weight 20 · heuristic
10 / 100
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
Resolution reliability
weight 20 · heuristic
70 / 100
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
Participant flow
weight 20 · pending
pending
No participant flow rollup materialized yet.
Integrity risk screen
weight 10 · pending
pending
No participant concentration rollup materialized yet.
Audit completeness
weight 5 · measured
85 / 100
3 linked artifacts; 1 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
Coherence blockLinked-market consistency
1 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signal linked to this condition; 5 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
Score
30
measured evidence
Source refs
1
linked-market or CME artifacts
full provenance cme signal linked signal price observations linked no observed checkpoint yet
Robustness blockSensitivity and drivers
Sensitivity verdict
moves
leave-one-out and weight perturbation
Leave-one-out
28-52
score range
Weight perturbation
38-41
score range
Drivers
3
largest weighted contributors
- Coherence scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Executability is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Executability scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Resolution reliability is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Participant flow is pending, not fully measured.
- Integrity screen is pending, not fully measured.
Live market integrity read is a Trader feature
Trader ($499/mo) unlocks an on-demand participation-concentration read on any market — HHI of wallet volume shares with a confidence interval on every estimate, plus a round-trip self-churn share, computed live from the current flow tape. Descriptive structure with receipts, not a manipulation call.
Boundary of the packet
This packet is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether the market price has enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore with receipts attached.