Market Trust methodologyClaim ledger
Market Trust Card v0.1polymarket24h public snapshot

which-artists-will-release-a-new-song-in-2026

Will Drake release a new song in 2026?

This market should not be cited as meaningful evidence from Convexly's v0.1 perspective.

Do not cite
38/100

Rating is about whether this market is currently citable as evidence, not whether the outcome will resolve yes or no.

Mid price

99.9%

Spread

0.10%

Liquidity

$2k

Depth

$2k

Pillar readings

Coherence

Measured

A same-event CME constraint fired near this market; the score discounts larger tensions.

20
/100
  • Matched MENE cluster with 97.2pp raw tension and z=85.5.
  • This is a structural-coherence reading, not a forecast of the market outcome.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x832c7e1f9db10d94d6eb951411bd01ffebce4009c013014f2ccfdbb7cc2a9ca4

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x832c7e1f9db10d94d6eb951411bd01ffebce4009c013014f2ccfdbb7cc2a9ca4

cme_signal_report_full.json:matched_cluster

Liquidity

Measured

Log-scaled liquidity and historical volume from the Gamma market snapshot.

15
/100
  • Liquidity is $2k and historical volume is $7k.
  • The score is log-scaled so a market must be meaningfully liquid, not merely nonzero.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x832c7e1f9db10d94d6eb951411bd01ffebce4009c013014f2ccfdbb7cc2a9ca4

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x832c7e1f9db10d94d6eb951411bd01ffebce4009c013014f2ccfdbb7cc2a9ca4

Orderbook depth

Measured

Top-of-book plus full-ladder depth, penalized for wide spreads.

43
/100
  • Full visible ladder depth is $2k; top-of-book depth is $1k.
  • Yes-side bid/ask spread is 0.10pp.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x832c7e1f9db10d94d6eb951411bd01ffebce4009c013014f2ccfdbb7cc2a9ca4

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x832c7e1f9db10d94d6eb951411bd01ffebce4009c013014f2ccfdbb7cc2a9ca4

Capacity

Heuristic

Conservative v0.1 capacity band from visible depth; not an execution recommendation.

7
/100
  • Estimated public capacity band is $41 based on visible CLOB depth.
  • The card intentionally does not expose trade direction or executable trade construction.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x832c7e1f9db10d94d6eb951411bd01ffebce4009c013014f2ccfdbb7cc2a9ca4

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x832c7e1f9db10d94d6eb951411bd01ffebce4009c013014f2ccfdbb7cc2a9ca4

Participant quality

Pending

Market-level wallet rollups are not yet joined in v0.1.

50
/100
  • Wallet skill exists at the leaderboard/analyzer layer, but per-market participant joins are still pending.
  • This neutral 50/100 prevents the public card from implying informed-flow evidence we do not have yet.

Source refs

wallet_activity_snapshots:parser_pending

Manipulation risk

Heuristic

Conservative placeholder based on spread, volume, and depth until wallet-cluster analysis ships.

68
/100
  • v0.1 flags shallow or wide markets as easier to move, but does not claim to detect coordinated manipulation.
  • Future versions should incorporate wallet-cluster graphs, wash flags, and flow concentration.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x832c7e1f9db10d94d6eb951411bd01ffebce4009c013014f2ccfdbb7cc2a9ca4

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x832c7e1f9db10d94d6eb951411bd01ffebce4009c013014f2ccfdbb7cc2a9ca4

Resolution reliability

Heuristic

CME resolution-risk heuristic, surfaced per market for the first time.

80
/100
  • Max resolution risk input is 0.200.
  • Thresholds are MVP heuristics and must be re-audited before v0.2 validation claims.

Source refs

services/api/scripts/cme_v0_1/resolution_risk.py

gamma_snapshot.json:0x832c7e1f9db10d94d6eb951411bd01ffebce4009c013014f2ccfdbb7cc2a9ca4

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x832c7e1f9db10d94d6eb951411bd01ffebce4009c013014f2ccfdbb7cc2a9ca4