Market TrustClaim ledger
Market Trust Card v0.1polymarket24h public snapshot

which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026

Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?

This market should not be cited as meaningful evidence from Convexly's v0.1 perspective.

Do not cite
43/100

Rating is about whether this market is currently citable as evidence, not whether the outcome will resolve yes or no.

Evidence coverage

Partial v0.1 coverage

3 measured · 3 heuristic · 1 pending pillar

Mid price

90.0%

Spread

2.00%

Liquidity

$25k

Visible depth

$1k

Capacity band

$107

Resolution risk

20.0%

Evidence status

The v0.1 score is only as strong as the measured inputs behind it. This breakdown keeps placeholder pillars from looking as firm as source-backed metrics.

Measured

3

Directly derived from current source artifacts, such as market metadata, orderbook snapshots, or Coherence Signal context.

Heuristic

3

Computed from frozen v0.1 rules, but not yet validated against a resolved scorecard cohort.

Pending

1

Reserved for inputs Convexly has not joined into this market-level artifact yet.

Pillar readings

Coherence

Measured

A same-event CME constraint fired near this market; the score discounts larger tensions.

20
/100
  • Matched MENE cluster with 82.4pp raw tension and z=79.3.
  • This is a structural-coherence reading, not a forecast of the market outcome.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x7fc755ce8c4a2c13073dfdb3946c64fba5fec5f38470d5002f7e63583a66528b

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x7fc755ce8c4a2c13073dfdb3946c64fba5fec5f38470d5002f7e63583a66528b

cme_signal_report_full.json:matched_cluster

Liquidity

Measured

Log-scaled liquidity and historical volume from the Gamma market snapshot.

47
/100
  • Liquidity is $25k and historical volume is $13k.
  • The score is log-scaled so a market must be meaningfully liquid, not merely nonzero.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x7fc755ce8c4a2c13073dfdb3946c64fba5fec5f38470d5002f7e63583a66528b

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x7fc755ce8c4a2c13073dfdb3946c64fba5fec5f38470d5002f7e63583a66528b

Orderbook depth

Measured

Top-of-book plus full-ladder depth, penalized for wide spreads.

34
/100
  • Full visible ladder depth is $1k; top-of-book depth is $174.
  • Yes-side bid/ask spread is 2.00pp.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x7fc755ce8c4a2c13073dfdb3946c64fba5fec5f38470d5002f7e63583a66528b

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x7fc755ce8c4a2c13073dfdb3946c64fba5fec5f38470d5002f7e63583a66528b

Capacity

Heuristic

Conservative v0.1 capacity band from visible depth; not an execution recommendation.

22
/100
  • Estimated public capacity band is $107 based on visible CLOB depth.
  • The card intentionally does not expose trade direction or executable trade construction.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x7fc755ce8c4a2c13073dfdb3946c64fba5fec5f38470d5002f7e63583a66528b

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x7fc755ce8c4a2c13073dfdb3946c64fba5fec5f38470d5002f7e63583a66528b

Participant quality

Pending

Market-level wallet rollups are not yet joined in v0.1.

50
/100
  • Wallet skill exists at the leaderboard/analyzer layer, but per-market participant joins are still pending.
  • This neutral 50/100 prevents the public card from implying informed-flow evidence we do not have yet.

Source refs

wallet_activity_snapshots:parser_pending

Manipulation risk

Heuristic

Conservative placeholder based on spread, volume, and depth until wallet-cluster analysis ships.

68
/100
  • v0.1 flags shallow or wide markets as easier to move, but does not claim to detect coordinated manipulation.
  • Future versions should incorporate wallet-cluster graphs, wash flags, and flow concentration.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x7fc755ce8c4a2c13073dfdb3946c64fba5fec5f38470d5002f7e63583a66528b

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x7fc755ce8c4a2c13073dfdb3946c64fba5fec5f38470d5002f7e63583a66528b

Resolution reliability

Heuristic

CME resolution-risk heuristic, surfaced per market for the first time.

80
/100
  • Max resolution risk input is 0.200.
  • Thresholds are MVP heuristics and must be re-audited before v0.2 validation claims.

Source refs

services/api/scripts/cme_v0_1/resolution_risk.py

gamma_snapshot.json:0x7fc755ce8c4a2c13073dfdb3946c64fba5fec5f38470d5002f7e63583a66528b

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x7fc755ce8c4a2c13073dfdb3946c64fba5fec5f38470d5002f7e63583a66528b