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A closed set of Polymarket wallet addresses, selected once and never added to, rescored daily. Shown here when the dollar record is positive or the realized-edge interval lies entirely above zero. Paste your wallet at the analyzer to compare against the cohort.
Wallets ranked
48
clear the publication gate
Top Edge Score
98.4
Median Edge Score
52.9
Reference cohort
50
frozen fit
Showing 48 wallets with no position floor applied. This view includes thin-sample wallets so researchers can inspect the ranking output among the published wallets. Use the sample-quality badge on each row before treating a rank as meaningful.
Leaderboard caveat
Leaderboard rank explains why a wallet scored highly in the historical cohort. It is not a recommendation to mirror trades or assume future wallet performance.
SelectionThis board is a closed set of wallet addresses selected once on 2026-04-19, not a screen over Polymarket. No wallet has entered since. The original screen was: Polymarket wallets with >=5 resolved positions and >=$5k realized PnL (2026-04-15 snapshot). Ranked by Edge Score V3b. Membership was conditioned partly on having made money, which puts profit on the causal path into the pool, so no count taken over these rows describes Polymarket wallets generally.
IntervalsOf the 41 rows here carrying a 95% interval, 4 sit entirely above zero and 4 entirely below. Chance alone produces about 1.1 to 2.1 above zero and 1.1 to 1.9 below on rows of these sample sizes, measured by simulating this estimator rather than read off the interval's nominal width. 4 or more above turns up 2.2% to 15% of the time, which brackets the 5% line, so whether this side's count exceeds chance depends on the null shape assumed and no claim either way is made here. 4 or more below turns up 2.3% to 12% of the time, which brackets the 5% line, so whether this side's count exceeds chance depends on the null shape assumed and no claim either way is made here. 1 further row sits entirely below zero in the cohort but is not shown: a row is shown on a positive dollar record or on an interval above zero, which admits every above-zero row automatically and admits a below-zero one only if its dollar record is positive, so the two counts above are not filtered the same way. No row is published as skilled unless its positive read survives a correction across the rows beside it, and none here does.
OrderingOrdered by scored resolved-position count, most first. Not a skill ordering, not a profit ordering, and not a ranking by record size. A position is scored only where the read recovered an entry price for it, and Polymarket's recent-trade window omits positions already redeemed, so each wallet's whole resolved record is usually larger than the count shown.
Computed fromRanked from Polymarket's recent-trade window, not from a complete read of each wallet's resolved record. That window omits positions already redeemed, so these figures describe the window and not the whole record. No skill read is published for a wallet until its record has been read in full. 31 of 48 listed wallets have been read in full.
0x••••…•••• · $76.2K PnL
Realized edge -1.1pp (95% CI [-4.7, +2.5])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=238
The two reads of this wallet land in different places relative to zero. Both are published on the snapshot; neither is a correction of the other.
356
Scored
Chain read: 238 resolved, 238 priced
83
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $74.9K PnL
Realized edge -12.8pp (95% CI [-20.3, -6.1])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=126
The two reads of this wallet land in different places relative to zero. Both are published on the snapshot; neither is a correction of the other.
232
Scored
Chain read: 126 resolved, 126 priced
8
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $41.8K PnL
Realized edge -3.1pp (95% CI [-10.8, +6.0])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=61
216
Scored
Chain read: 61 resolved, 61 priced
20
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $54.7K PnL
Realized edge -16.2pp (95% CI [-20.8, -10.2])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=124
The two reads of this wallet land in different places relative to zero. Both are published on the snapshot; neither is a correction of the other.
180
Scored
Chain read: 124 resolved, 124 priced
24
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $116.5K PnL
Realized edge +0.8pp (95% CI [-1.3, +2.9])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=828
154
Scored
Chain read: 829 resolved, 828 priced
15
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $22.5K PnL
Realized edge -14.3pp (95% CI [-25.1, -0.7])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=30
The two reads of this wallet land in different places relative to zero. Both are published on the snapshot; neither is a correction of the other.
100
Scored
Chain read: 98 resolved, 30 priced
74
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $61.7K PnL
Realized edge +0.3pp (95% CI [-5.5, +5.7])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=82
98
Scored
Chain read: 83 resolved, 82 priced
11
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $1.1M PnL
Realized edge +4.1pp (95% CI [-5.4, +13.1])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=92
94
Scored
Chain read: 92 resolved, 92 priced
59
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $6.5M PnL
No complete read of this record, so no skill read is published here.
Recent-window edge +5.6pp (95% CI [-5.0, +15.7])Computed from the recent-trade window, not the full resolved record.
93
Scored
33
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $24.8K PnL
Realized edge -1.8pp (95% CI [-6.0, +1.6])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=90
91
Scored
Chain read: 90 resolved, 90 priced
30
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $47.4K PnL
Realized edge +4.2pp (95% CI [+1.0, +8.2])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=90
90
Scored
Chain read: 90 resolved, 90 priced
48
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $666 PnL
Realized edge +0.7pp (95% CI [-2.2, +4.5])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=204
83
Scored
Chain read: 315 resolved, 204 priced
53
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $42.5K PnL
Realized edge -3.7pp (95% CI [-10.0, +0.5])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=82
82
Scored
Chain read: 82 resolved, 82 priced
31
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $33.3K PnL
Realized edge +8.1pp (95% CI [+0.9, +16.7])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=43
The two reads of this wallet land in different places relative to zero. Both are published on the snapshot; neither is a correction of the other.
63
Scored
Chain read: 43 resolved, 43 priced
49
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $55.0K PnL
Realized edge -1.7pp (95% CI [-7.4, +2.8])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=62
63
Scored
Chain read: 62 resolved, 62 priced
47
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $10.9K PnL
Realized edge -1.8pp (95% CI [-6.9, +1.4])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=61
62
Scored
Chain read: 61 resolved, 61 priced
40
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $33.1K PnL
Realized edge +0.4pp (95% CI [-4.6, +5.8])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=54
54
Scored
Chain read: 54 resolved, 54 priced
52
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $16.9K PnL
Realized edge +1.4pp (95% CI [-3.2, +6.7])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=53
54
Scored
Chain read: 53 resolved, 53 priced
58
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $30.6K PnL
Realized edge +0.0pp (95% CI [-7.7, +4.6])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=41
54
Scored
Chain read: 41 resolved, 41 priced
49
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $18.1K PnL
Realized edge +4.1pp (95% CI [-0.4, +9.1])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=52
53
Scored
Chain read: 52 resolved, 52 priced
48
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $23.0K PnL
Realized edge -7.7pp (95% CI [-20.7, +6.1])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=53
53
Scored
Chain read: 53 resolved, 53 priced
53
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $27.4K PnL
Realized edge +1.8pp (95% CI [-4.9, +7.4])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=52
52
Scored
Chain read: 52 resolved, 52 priced
55
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $14.9K PnL
Realized edge -8.8pp (95% CI [-15.9, -1.2])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=32
The two reads of this wallet land in different places relative to zero. Both are published on the snapshot; neither is a correction of the other.
49
Scored
Chain read: 32 resolved, 32 priced
72
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $24.0K PnL
Realized edge -1.0pp (95% CI [-9.4, +6.7])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=46
48
Scored
Chain read: 46 resolved, 46 priced
52
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $109.3K PnL
No complete read of this record, so no skill read is published here.
Recent-window edge +18.3pp (95% CI [-2.5, +33.1])Computed from the recent-trade window, not the full resolved record.
47
Scored
73
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $19.0K PnL
Realized edge -0.8pp (95% CI [-7.5, +7.2])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=43
45
Scored
Chain read: 43 resolved, 43 priced
46
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $22.8K PnL
Realized edge +4.0pp (95% CI [-1.9, +11.3])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=45
45
Scored
Chain read: 45 resolved, 45 priced
59
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $56.9K PnL
No complete read of this record, so no skill read is published here.
Recent-window edge +12.8pp (95% CI [-0.3, +23.8])Computed from the recent-trade window, not the full resolved record.
43
Scored
36
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $17.6K PnL
Realized edge -1.1pp (95% CI [-7.8, +4.1])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=39
43
Scored
Chain read: 39 resolved, 39 priced
56
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $17.8K PnL
Realized edge +0.2pp (95% CI [-6.6, +6.0])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=41
42
Scored
Chain read: 41 resolved, 41 priced
53
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $14.6K PnL
No complete read of this record, so no skill read is published here.
Recent-window edge -0.4pp (95% CI [-14.1, +23.9])Computed from the recent-trade window, not the full resolved record.
41
Scored
76
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $12.9K PnL
Realized edge -0.7pp (95% CI [-7.4, +5.0])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=38
40
Scored
Chain read: 38 resolved, 38 priced
49
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $15.8K PnL
No complete read of this record, so no skill read is published here.
Recent-window edge +13.3pp (95% CI [+2.3, +26.6])Computed from the recent-trade window, not the full resolved record.
37
Scored
49
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $17.2K PnL
Realized edge -3.6pp (95% CI [-14.4, +5.7])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=37
37
Scored
Chain read: 37 resolved, 37 priced
49
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $26.1K PnL
Realized edge -2.5pp (95% CI [-11.1, +7.6])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=33
37
Scored
Chain read: 33 resolved, 33 priced
61
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $32.1K PnL
Realized edge +4.8pp (95% CI [-2.1, +12.8])
From the on-chain read of the resolved record, n=34
36
Scored
Chain read: 34 resolved, 34 priced
67
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $17.1K PnL
No complete read of this record, so no skill read is published here.
Recent-window edge +0.3pp (95% CI [-14.0, +8.5])Computed from the recent-trade window, not the full resolved record.
36
Scored
44
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $93.8K PnL
No complete read of this record, so no skill read is published here.
30
Scored
81
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $116.9K PnL
No complete read of this record, so no skill read is published here.
28
Scored
62
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $64.7K PnL
No complete read of this record, so no skill read is published here.
Recent-window edge +1.7pp (95% CI [-13.2, +17.2])Computed from the recent-trade window, not the full resolved record.
28
Scored
88
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $596.2K PnL
No complete read of this record, so no skill read is published here.
27
Scored
55
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $102.9K PnL
No complete read of this record, so no skill read is published here.
Recent-window edge -1.7pp (95% CI [-20.3, +13.8])Computed from the recent-trade window, not the full resolved record.
27
Scored
76
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $26.3K PnL
No complete read of this record, so no skill read is published here.
24
Scored
88
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $77.6K PnL
No complete read of this record, so no skill read is published here.
23
Scored
74
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $38.0K PnL
No complete read of this record, so no skill read is published here.
Recent-window edge -6.9pp (95% CI [-31.1, +15.0])Computed from the recent-trade window, not the full resolved record.
22
Scored
52
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $17.8K PnL
No complete read of this record, so no skill read is published here.
20
Scored
96.9
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $20.3K PnL
No complete read of this record, so no skill read is published here.
Recent-window edge +18.6pp (95% CI [+0.1, +36.4])Computed from the recent-trade window, not the full resolved record.
20
Scored
85
Edge · window 2026-08-23
0x••••…•••• · $9.5K PnL
No complete read of this record, so no skill read is published here.
20
Scored
98.4
Edge · window 2026-08-23
How to read this board. Edge Score is a descriptive behavioral composite of how a wallet positioned on its resolved public history (calibration, conviction, and discipline). It describes the past record; out-of-sample forward-skill validation is still pending, so a rank is not a forecast of future returns.
Each row also carries a skill read (ahead of its entry prices / not separable from luck / behind its entry prices / thin sample) with the wallet's realized-edge sign and 95% interval, so a high Edge Score never stands alone. Two of those read the position of an interval that excludes zero and are deliberately not verdicts: a row is called skilled only if its positive read also survives a correction across the rows beside it, which is stated above the board. A read of any kind renders only past two floors: 30 resolved positions and 20 independent resolved events. Style notes such as "concentrated" describe how the edge was earned; they never change the verdict, and a concentrated record keeps the caveat that the dollar outcome rode on a few events. The board Edge Score is a snapshot from 2026-08-23; a live analyzer read may differ as new positions resolve, so a board score and a live analyzer score read as snapshot-vs-live, not a contradiction.
A wallet is shown here when its realized PnL is positive, or when its realized-edge 95% interval lies entirely above zero. The second route was added 2026-08-10 so that a wallet with a measured edge and a losing dollar record appears rather than being hidden: profit is not skill, and a board that filtered on the dollar result alone was filtering as though it were. That interval is a single unadjusted 95% BCa interval on that wallet's own record, not a screen corrected for the fifty wallets tested alongside it, so read it as a description rather than as a wallet that survived a multiple-comparison procedure. 2 cohort wallets are held back from the public view for clearing neither route.
Edge Score vs same-window PnL (in-sample diagnostic)
Monthly rolling rank correlation between the original Edge Score V3b composite and signed-log PnL computed on the SAME in-window positions. This is an in-sample contemporaneous diagnostic, not a forward test: the score and the realized PnL share the same positions and the dominant input (conviction) is PnL-derived, so it overstates predictive skill. The honest forward result is the ex-ante per-wallet temporal holdout (out-of-sample Spearman +0.11, 95% CI [0.05, 0.18], which did not clear the +0.30 threshold it was filed against). Brier-only baseline shown for contrast. The series was computed under the pre-2026-07-13 V3b constants and does not describe current Edge Scores; the dated method-change note is at /methodology.
median ρ = 0.375
26 monthly windows
Edge Score distribution
How the published cohort distributes across the 0-100 scale. Median + p25/p75 marked inline.
median = 52.6
n = 50
Checking on a wallet that is not on this board?
Paste any public Polymarket address into the analyzer for the same descriptive Edge Score read, free and with no signup. Diagnostics, not advice.
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