Audit chain · Layer 3
CME signal track record
Every CME signal Convexly has emitted, joined to its resolved outcome (where Polymarket has settled). Aggregate hit rate and cumulative gross + net PnL are public; per-signal evidence (resolved date, outcome, Z-score, realized net PnL per row) is gated to the Researcher tier so paying customers retain exclusive access to the methodology disclosure. AsPredicted #288046 pre-registers the V0.2 methodology and /research/verify walks the SHA-256 chain that locks every row.
Resolution-tracker cron runs daily at 12:00 UTC; this page ISRs every 5 minutes after the cron lands new rows.
Emitted
626
cumulative ledger
Resolvable
480
146 excluded (partial)
Resolved
0
0% of resolvable
Hit rate
n/a
0 won
Resolved net PnL
+$0
gross +$0 · resolvable cohort
Resolution-quality denominator
480 of 626
146 partial-provenance rows excluded
146 signals have partial provenance and are excluded from hit rate, resolved PnL, and any other resolution-quality metric on this page.
These rows were reconstructed from a sanitized public archive after the original private archive went uncommitted; their condition_id fields are NULL so the resolution-tracker cannot match them to Polymarket settlements. They count toward Emitted only. See the audit chain for the full provenance breakdown per row.
No signals have resolved yet on this ledger. The first resolution-tracker cron runs at 12:00 UTC daily; once Polymarket settles a market that Convexly emitted on, the row appears here within ~24 hours.
Per AsPredicted #288046 the V0.2 backtest target date is 2026-07-29; until then the live ledger and the pre-registered backtest both accumulate in parallel.
How this ledger is locked
- Append-only: the signal-emission ledger is service-role-only and append-only. Each row carries a SHA-256 input hash bound to the canonical-JSON serialization of the signal at emit time.
- Resolution-locked: signals_resolved is FK + PK against signals_emitted. The resolution-tracker cron writes one row per resolved signal with a SHA-256 resolution hash chaining the outcome to the original input hash.
- Pre-registered methodology: V0.2.0 was committed at git SHA 8616a63 before any signals fired. Threshold + sizing + cost model + metrics were frozen ex-ante per AsPredicted #288046.
- Verifiable: walk the chain in your browser at /research/verify.