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Daily market read
This market is no longer in the daily monitored set.
This is the most recent Convexly read for it, as of 2026-07-20 (UTC). The read has not been refreshed since then, so later market activity is not reflected here.
Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
Participant-flow coverage is measured, but unknown flow remains material.
Monitor, but do not cite as current. The evidence is useful as an archived read until the data freshness window refreshes.
Freshness gate: Market Trust snapshot is more than the staleness window old. Read it as archived evidence, not as a current run.
The diligence packet carries the memo language, audit chain, and the Markdown, PDF, and JSON exports for this market.
Open the diligence packetWhy this rating
Composite 67 · Do not cite
Measurement certainty
Low
3 measured · 2 modeled · 1 not assessed
Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
Resolution rules
Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Experimental rating caveat
Market Trust Cards are experimental market-quality diagnostics, not compliance certifications or validated credit ratings.
What travels with this read
Market Trust is a canary preview: verdict cutpoints are operator-set, and each read is a dated, descriptive diagnostic of market quality, not a prediction of the outcome and not a claim about what the probability should be. A prospective calibration test is filed and matures on resolved outcomes.
Sign in to see recent trades our collectors observed here: side, size, price, and time for every recorded fill.
Create a free account1 of the 365 wallets whose full on-chain history Convexly has walked and reconciled were observed trading this market.
Presence is a coverage fact, not a recommendation: a complete record means the wallet's history is fully accounted for as of its certification block, not that the wallet is skilled. Fill counts reflect what Convexly's own collectors observed; wallets outside this set also trade this market.
Quote it verbatim. The number and how the set was chosen travel together; the method is frozen and the per-wallet table is public.
Convexly rates this polymarket market "Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" as Do not cite, as of 2026-07-20 (UTC).
Per Convexly Market Trust, the polymarket market "Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" is rated Do not cite as of 2026-07-20T01:15:45.473Z (UTC). The rating describes whether the quoted market price was a clean enough data object to cite at that timestamp. This citation is market diligence, not investment advice, not a trading instruction, not a forecast, and not proof that the market probability is correct. Daily read: https://www.convexly.app/markets/will-spain-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-963
Canonical URL: https://www.convexly.app/markets/will-spain-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-963
Boundary of this page
This daily read is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether this market price had enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore at the as-of timestamp, with receipts attached in the diligence packet.
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
9/37 accounts identifiable; identity coverage 75%; top-account flow share 64%; net directional flow unknown. Descriptive participant flow only; not a skill or smart-money signal.
Flow patterns clean; no wash-trade or coordination signals.
9 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 60.0.
Caveat: 1 pillar not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
Convexly is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Polymarket or Manifold. Wallet and market data are derived from publicly available venue sources.
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