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Daily market read
This market is no longer in the daily monitored set.
This is the most recent Convexly read for it, as of 2026-08-09 (UTC). The read has not been refreshed since then, so later market activity is not reflected here.
Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
Some quality checks are missing complete source receipts, so the rating is held back until they fill in.
Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence.
The diligence packet carries the memo language, audit chain, and the Markdown, PDF, and JSON exports for this market.
Open the diligence packetWhy this rating
Composite 41 · Do not cite
Measurement certainty
Low
2 measured · 2 modeled · 2 not assessed
Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
7 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 40 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
Resolution rules
Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Experimental rating caveat
Market Trust Cards are experimental market-quality diagnostics, not compliance certifications or validated credit ratings.
What travels with this read
Market Trust is a canary preview: verdict cutpoints are operator-set, and each read is a dated, descriptive diagnostic of market quality, not a prediction of the outcome and not a claim about what the probability should be. A prospective calibration test is filed and matures on resolved outcomes.
Sign in to see recent trades our collectors observed here: side, size, price, and time for every recorded fill.
Create a free accountQuote it verbatim. The number and its bound travel together; the method is frozen and the per-wallet table is public.
Convexly rates this polymarket market "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?" as Do not cite, as of 2026-08-09 (UTC).
Per Convexly Market Trust, the polymarket market "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?" is rated Do not cite as of 2026-08-09T12:00:41.003Z (UTC). The rating describes whether the quoted market price was a clean enough data object to cite at that timestamp. This citation is market diligence, not investment advice, not a trading instruction, not a forecast, and not proof that the market probability is correct. Daily read: https://www.convexly.app/markets/us-agrees-to-a-new-trade-deal-with-european-union-before-2027-711
Canonical URL: https://www.convexly.app/markets/us-agrees-to-a-new-trade-deal-with-european-union-before-2027-711
Boundary of this page
This daily read is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether this market price had enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore at the as-of timestamp, with receipts attached in the diligence packet.
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
No participant flow rollup materialized yet.
No participant concentration rollup materialized yet.
3 linked artifacts; 1 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0.
Caveat: 2 pillars not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
Convexly is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Polymarket or Manifold. Wallet and market data are derived from publicly available venue sources.
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