Daily market read
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs
Too much of the trading came from wallets we cannot yet identify, so participant-flow coverage is uncertain.
Discount the market price. It can be monitored, but the current substrate is too weak for a clean citation.
The diligence packet carries the memo language, audit chain, and the Markdown, PDF, and JSON exports for this market.
Open the diligence packetWhy this read
Why this rating
Composite 59 · Discount
- Coherenceheuristicweight 25.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no linked cme signal in window
- · absence of signal not proof of coherence
- · cme signal window days: 7
- · recent full provenance signals: 100
50+15.6 - Executabilitymeasuredweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability worse of spread depth
- · spread: top-of-book spread 1.0c
- · spread: spread is 1% of mid, tight relative to price
- · spread: pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
45+11.3 - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+17.5 - Participant flowmeasuredweight 20.0
27/99 accounts identifiable; identity coverage 40%; top-account flow share 37%; net directional flow net buy 86%. Descriptive participant flow only; not a skill or smart-money signal.
- · below publishable sample floor
- · current account score join
- · edge score composite descriptive not skill
- · high participant concentration
n/ano contrib - Integrity risk screenmeasuredweight 10.0
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
- · 1 possible wash round-trip detected
- · top-3 wallets control 76% of notional flow
- · flow events: 151
- · distinct wallets: 99
65+8.1 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
77 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hashes present
- · source watermarks healthy
100+6.3
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0.
Experimental rating caveat
Market Trust Cards are experimental market-quality diagnostics, not compliance certifications or validated credit ratings.
What travels with this read
Market Trust is a canary preview: verdict cutpoints are operator-set, and each read is a dated, descriptive diagnostic of market quality, not a prediction of the outcome and not a claim about what the probability should be. A prospective calibration test is filed and matures on resolved outcomes.
- Hard cap: participant quality elevated unknown flow.
- Hard cap: Participant-flow coverage is measured, but unknown flow remains material.
- 1 possible wash round-trip detected
- absence of signal not proof of coherence
- artifact hashes present
- below publishable sample floor
Cite this reading
Quote it verbatim. The number and its bound travel together; the method is frozen and the per-wallet table is public.
Convexly rates this polymarket market "New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs" as Discount, as of 2026-07-31 (UTC).
Per Convexly Market Trust, the polymarket market "New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs" is rated Discount as of 2026-07-31T20:45:53.249Z (UTC). The rating describes whether the quoted market price was a clean enough data object to cite at that timestamp. This citation is market diligence, not investment advice, not a trading instruction, not a forecast, and not proof that the market probability is correct. Daily read: https://www.convexly.app/markets/mlb-nyy-chc-2026-07-31
Canonical URL: https://www.convexly.app/markets/mlb-nyy-chc-2026-07-31
Boundary of this page
This daily read is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether this market price had enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore at the as-of timestamp, with receipts attached in the diligence packet.