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Daily market read
Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
The integrity screen is still heuristic and scores below 60.
Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence.
The diligence packet carries the memo language, audit chain, and the Markdown, PDF, and JSON exports for this market.
Open the diligence packetWhy this rating
Composite 58 · Do not cite
Measurement certainty
Low
2 measured · 4 modeled · 0 not assessed
Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
A separate preview read: this market's book quality relative to peers at the same time-to-close and price range. It does not feed the Market Trust rating above.
Peer group: markets under 24 hours to scheduled close, priced within 10c of a boundary. As of 2026-08-30 (UTC).
Quoted spread is tighter than ~98% of horizon-matched peers.
Order-book depth is deeper than ~92% of horizon-matched peers.
Peer cell: 418 markets, 418 market-day observations, trailing 28 days (2026-08-02 to 2026-08-29).
Resolution rules
Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.
In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 30, 2026 If Málaga CF wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Experimental rating caveat
Market Trust Cards are experimental market-quality diagnostics, not compliance certifications or validated credit ratings.
What travels with this read
Market Trust is a canary preview: verdict cutpoints are operator-set, and each read is a dated, descriptive diagnostic of market quality, not a prediction of the outcome and not a claim about what the probability should be. A prospective calibration test is filed and matures on resolved outcomes.
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Create a free accountNone of the wallets in Convexly's provably-complete set has been observed trading this market. That is a statement about this set's observed footprint, not about who trades here.
Check any Polymarket wallet →Quote it verbatim. The number and how the set was chosen travel together; the method is frozen and the per-wallet table is public.
Convexly rates this polymarket market "Will Málaga CF win on 2026-08-30?" as Do not cite, as of 2026-08-30 (UTC).
Per Convexly Market Trust, the polymarket market "Will Málaga CF win on 2026-08-30?" is rated Do not cite as of 2026-08-30T08:00:11.457Z (UTC). The rating describes whether the quoted market price was a clean enough data object to cite at that timestamp. This citation is market diligence, not investment advice, not a trading instruction, not a forecast, and not proof that the market probability is correct. Daily read: https://www.convexly.app/markets/lal-rea-mala-2026-08-30-mala
Canonical URL: https://www.convexly.app/markets/lal-rea-mala-2026-08-30-mala
Boundary of this page
This daily read is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether this market price had enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore at the as-of timestamp, with receipts attached in the diligence packet.
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
10/22 accounts identifiable; identity coverage 98%; top-account flow share 96%; net directional flow net buy 94%. Descriptive participant flow only; not a skill or smart-money signal.
Screen indicators flagged strongly. A reason to look, not a finding about anyone.
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0.
Convexly is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Polymarket or Manifold. Wallet and market data are derived from publicly available venue sources.
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