Market Trust diligence packet
Untitled market (pending enrichment)
One of four bands, strongest warning on the right
Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict.
Monitor, but do not cite as current. The evidence is useful as an archived read until the data freshness window refreshes.
Freshness gate: Diligence packet is stale for current product claims. Treat this as archived evidence and wait for a refresh before demos or outreach.
Market quality
30 / 100
Interval 0-45
Evidence confidence
insufficient
33 / 100
Source health
source gate passed
5 sources | dropped 0
Audit chain
ff8a781a1f...
row hash verified
Memo language, how to use this packet, and what changes the verdict
Memo language
Convexly rates this polymarket market "Untitled market (pending enrichment)" as Do not cite. Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence. Caveat to carry: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict. This is market diligence, not a trading instruction or proof that the market probability is correct.
Caveat to carry: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict.
Use this packet when
- Use to explain why this market should stay out of a citation set for now.
- Use as a recovery checklist for source freshness, coherence, depth, or evidence gaps.
Do not use it as
- A trading instruction.
- Proof that the market probability is correct.
- A manipulation accusation or person-level identity claim.
What changes the verdict
- Clear hard cap: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict.
- Clear hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Clear current blocker: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
Why this verdict
How the score adds up
Why this rating
Composite 30 · Do not cite
- Coherencependingweight 20.0
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
- · missing_input
—no contrib - Liquiditypendingweight 15.0
Top-of-book unavailable; pillar pending.
- · No bid/ask snapshot in the lookback window.
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
0no contrib - Depthpendingweight 15.0
Depth data unavailable; pillar pending.
- · No depth snapshot in the lookback window.
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
0no contrib - Resolution reliabilitypendingweight 15.0
Resolution reliability input has not been linked yet.
- · missing_resolution_metadata
—no contrib - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
- · below_publishable_sample_floor
- · current_account_score_join
- · high_participant_concentration
- · high_unknown_flow_share
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenmeasuredweight 10.0
Flow patterns clean; no wash-trade or coordination signals.
- · top-3 wallets control 66% of notional flow
- · flow_events:85
- · distinct_wallets:53
- · wash_round_trips:0
85+56.7 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact_hashes_present
- · source_watermarks_healthy
100+33.3
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 15.0.
Caveat: 5 pillars pending — the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
What is being rated
Market identity
Venue
polymarket
condition 0x033f077ee53e4fde...
Category
unmapped
used for coverage and validation breadth
Market status
not supplied
venue-provided lifecycle state when available
Resolution rule
Resolution-rule text is not supplied on this packet; treat that as a caveat.
card_id: mt-v02:polymarket:0x033f077ee53e4fde9306bb009a527da77847b201c6d742eeeff59a1d3b2b0339:2026-05-18
market_id: not supplied
venue_market_id: 0x033f077ee53e4fde9306bb009a527da77847b201c6d742eeeff59a1d3b2b0339
resolution_source: not supplied
Receipt and export
Audit chain
Convexly stores the card payload, removes the row_hash field, canonicalizes the remaining JSON, and recomputes the SHA-256 hash. This is the bridge from a readable verdict to a buyer-reviewable audit chain.
method: market_trust_card_v0_2
row_hash: ff8a781a1ff6383c8005e7b5c853a36037f09a938524040cf60b530e2eb23567
previous_row_hash: 025ac04faceb08cb2873741c5d90d32d0682d7066fb5c9af8b8018e1631cb827
source_artifact_hashes: f55fa837c5589baf8b3584304af961d4ffdace906a968e7992581fed4f37bdfb, 3ab7ab893a45c7072ba5f7a785905de7093db33f94de742094ca79e435a4051c
Immutable verdict archive
Verdict hash
This verdict is archived as a canonical JSON object with a SHA-256 content hash. The hashed payload carries the methodology version (market_trust_card_v0_2), the canary_preview label, and a fixed boundary statement; none of them can be removed without changing the digest.
verdict archive sha256: e67f973da8d865bbeef9f002a4f28f320973f1621fad38d65d8a9f18a58f2092
How to verify this hash
- Fetch the canonical archive bytes: https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x033f077ee53e4fde9306bb009a527da77847b201c6d742eeeff59a1d3b2b0339/archive?venue=polymarket&format=canonical
- Recompute the digest locally, for example: curl -s "https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x033f077ee53e4fde9306bb009a527da77847b201c6d742eeeff59a1d3b2b0339/archive?venue=polymarket&format=canonical" | shasum -a 256
- Compare your digest to archive_sha256 in the JSON response at https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x033f077ee53e4fde9306bb009a527da77847b201c6d742eeeff59a1d3b2b0339/archive?venue=polymarket. Matching digests mean the archived verdict content is byte-for-byte unchanged.
- Cross-check card_row_hash against the stored full-card receipt at https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x033f077ee53e4fde9306bb009a527da77847b201c6d742eeeff59a1d3b2b0339/verify?venue=polymarket.
Stored v0.2 cards are frozen scorecards: a re-score inserts a new row with a new card_id and records the prior receipt in previous_row_hash, and the filed calibration design binds Convexly to never mutate frozen card-time rows. The archive is a deterministic serialization of one stored row, so the same row always reproduces the same archive_sha256.
Who shaped the price
Participant and integrity screen
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review. This is an integrity-risk screen, not a manipulation accusation and not person-level identity resolution.
Scored flow
0.7%
1 scored accounts
Unknown flow
99.3%
higher unknown flow lowers confidence
Participants
53
public accounts observed
Top flow share
45.1%
concentration diagnostic
Not claiming: wash-trading detection; sybil detection; manipulation-free market.
Instrument fitness diagnostics (experimental)
1 of 6 diagnostics have a derivable observable on this stored card; 5 are insufficient_data. An insufficient_data row means the card lacks that input, not that the check passed.
Depth durability
insufficient data
insufficient_data
No executability pillar is present on this card.
Observable: Executability pillar: worse-of(top-of-book spread, modeled price impact) from the latest inspected orderbook snapshot at 2026-05-18T17:11:44.005+00:00
Missing input: The stored card has no measured or heuristic executability pillar value (no current orderbook spread or depth input).
Spread and price impact
insufficient data
insufficient_data
No executability pillar is present on this card.
Observable: Top-of-book spread (price points) and modeled price impact for a fixed notional, from the latest inspected orderbook snapshot
Missing input: The stored card has no current orderbook spread or modeled price-impact input.
Time to resolution
insufficient data
insufficient_data
No venue lifecycle status or end date is stored on this card.
Observable: Venue-supplied market end date or close time stored on the card
Missing input: The v0.2 card schema does not store an end date or close time, so time to resolution cannot be derived from this card.
Resolution reliability
insufficient data
insufficient_data
Resolution reliability input has not been linked yet.
Observable: Resolution reliability pillar: review of the resolution source and stored resolution rule text
Missing input: The stored card has no measured or heuristic resolution-reliability pillar value.
Concentration exposure
insufficient data
insufficient_data
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review.
Observable: Participant-flow concentration from the card's integrity screen: top account flow share, unknown flow share, scored notional share
Missing input: Participant-flow concentration is not measured on this card (no scored participant rollup or no top-account flow share).
Basis-risk note
descriptive
structural note
This market settles as a binary event contract: it pays a fixed amount on one discrete resolution. Offsetting a continuous exposure with a binary payoff leaves residual basis risk by construction, and binary payoffs will generally fail the ASC 815 80-125% dollar-offset band used for hedge-accounting treatment, so a position that works as an economic offset can still be carried as mark-to-market P&L. This is a structural description of the contract type, not a statement about any party's exposure. The resolution rule text is not stored on this card, which adds trigger-definition uncertainty on top of the structural basis risk.
Observable: Contract payoff structure (binary event contract) and the resolution rule text stored on the card
Caveats: structural description of the contract type, not accounting or legal advice
Published deliberately as a component table with no single combined number. Read each component against the observable it derives from; an insufficient_data row means the stored card lacks that input, not that the check passed.
These diagnostics describe observable market-quality measurements for one market. They are not investment advice, not a trading instruction, not a recommendation to take or offset any exposure with this or any market, and not a statement about any person or their positions.
instrument_fitness_diagnostics_v0_1
Ingest status
Source freshness window
The current ingest window is clean enough for review. This is freshness reporting, not an uptime SLA.
Latest orderbook
2026-05-18T17:11:44.005Z
most recent orderbook evidence attached to this card
Sources
5
4 healthy | 0 degraded | 0 stale | 0 failing
Dropped events
0
nonzero dropped events block current-language claims
Observed age
11d
oldest observed source watermark
Ingested age
11d
oldest ingest watermark
Canary vs v1
Validation state
Canary pipeline
blocked
Current card has source, evidence, or robustness issues to clear.
Public v1 promotion
4 public v1 validation gates still open.
Canary readiness says the current batch can be reviewed. Public v1 promotion waits for coverage, clean source-health windows, resolved outcomes, and formula-freeze evidence.
Read the promotion evidence contract- Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- The market's resolution-rule text is missing.
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
What travels with the score
Top caveats
- Hard cap: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict.
- Hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Current card issue: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Current card issue: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- Current card issue: The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- Current card issue: The market's resolution-rule text is missing.
Validation requirements
Before stable v1
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
Non-scoring provenance
External context
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
External context is non-scoring in v0.2. Market Trust still measures market-quality substrate, not absolute truth against outside forecasts.
Full seven-pillar evidence grid
Coherence
weight 20 · pending
pending
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
Liquidity
weight 15 · pending
0 / 100
Top-of-book unavailable; pillar pending.
Depth
weight 15 · pending
0 / 100
Depth data unavailable; pillar pending.
Resolution reliability
weight 15 · pending
pending
Resolution reliability input has not been linked yet.
Participant quality
weight 20 · pending
pending
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
Integrity risk screen
weight 10 · measured
85 / 100
Flow patterns clean; no wash-trade or coordination signals.
Audit completeness
weight 5 · measured
100 / 100
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
Linked-market consistency
Coherence block
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
Score
pending
pending evidence
Source refs
0
linked-market or CME artifacts
missing input
Sensitivity and drivers
Robustness block
Sensitivity verdict
moves
leave-one-out and weight perturbation
Leave-one-out
14-45
score range
Weight perturbation
27-32
score range
Drivers
3
largest weighted contributors
- Coherence is pending, not fully measured.
- Liquidity is pending, not fully measured.
- Liquidity scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Depth is pending, not fully measured.
- Depth scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Resolution reliability is pending, not fully measured.
Boundary of the packet
This packet is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether the market price has enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore with receipts attached.